The country’s focus will early next year shift to the elections for the African Union Commission chairperson in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.
Kenya will be hoping to secure victory for former Prime Minister Raila Odinga who is battling three other candidates for the coveted position.
Raila will run against Mahmoud Ali Youssouf from Djibouti, and Richard Randriamandrato of Madagascar in the race to succeed Moussa Faki.
Faki, who hails from Chad, has served two terms of four years each, with his second and final term expiring in February 2025.
President William Ruto’s administration has rolled out an aggressive campaign to push for Raila’s candidacy with government officials leading the charge.
The campaign will test to the limit of Kenya’s diplomatic prowess as the government mounts a continent-wide campaign.
The continental vote could also be seen as a referendum on President Ruto’s influence in the region as he pushes for Raila’s candidacy.
Kenya has described Raila as the best bet for the continent’s top job with his solid Pan-African and reform credentials.
“Odinga’s key focus and commitment is to harness Africa’s rich and vast human and natural resources to propel Africa towards a new era of shared prosperity,’’ the Ministry of Foreign and Diaspora Affairs said in a statement in July during the launch of the campaigns in Nairobi.
"He envisions an African Union Commission that can deliver on the priorities of the African peoples—both by catalyzing delivery on our continent and by commanding the global influence it rightfully warrants."
The campaigns have hit fever pitch with Raila traversing the continent to lobby presidents to support his candidacy amid intense jostling among regional blocs.
Back-to-back campaigns
Raila has lined up back-to-back campaigns for the AUC top post throughout December and January as the race for the job goes down to the wire.
In November, Raila unveiled his continental campaigns during a high-level session with the continent’s top diplomats in Addis Ababa.
The event was meant to provide a platform for Raila to engage with core players and partners of the AU about his Pan-African vision in line with the AU Agenda 2063.
In the meeting arraigned by the Kenya government and Raila’s campaign secretariat, the former prime minister outlined his vision for the continent to the Permanent Representatives in Addis.
At the event, Raila promised to dismantle economic barriers, empower the youth and women, and unite the continent behind a common goal—prosperity.
“We must return unity to the top of our priorities, as Mwalimu Nyerere and Nkrumah did. Without unity in a fast-consolidating and changing world, Africa will continue to be marginalised, exploited, and irrelevant,” he said.
“My leadership at the AU will not be one of the same rhetorics, where people meet a few times a year and return to their enclaves. My leadership will be pegged on the dreams of our forefathers, who expected that by now, Africa would roar in one united voice.”
Raila promised to eliminate trade impediments and visa requirements that have stagnated growth.
“An Africa that does not require visas for other Africans. An Africa where men and women do not climb on a rickety boat, or in an aeroplane cargo hold, risking their lives to leave this continent, but an Africa the world is rushing back to,” he said.
President
Ruto addressed the Permanent Representatives a day earlier as the Champion of
the African Union Institutional Reforms and rallied for Raila’s candidacy.
Raila’s campaign secretariat has ramped up campaigns that will see Raila visit continental capitals to seek the support of heads of state ahead of next year's polls.
Special focus has been given to regional blocs that are considered integral in anchoring his campaigns across countries, including Western, Central, Southern, and Northern Africa.
For Raila to clinch the coveted position, he needs 2/3 of the 55 countries that will vote, but the geopolitical language and religion of the member states will play a key role in who wins the 2025 elections.
However, 6 members have been suspended because of either war or hostile takeovers in government.
These are Sudan, Gabon, Benin, Burkina Faso, Niger, and Guinea. This means Raila needs at least 33 votes to succeed Faki
Several factors will come into play as the campaigns heat up.
Religion, age, the Anglo and francophone divide, Western influence, and the emerging forces in the continent, such as Russia and China, are some of the elements that may tilt the scale of the election.
Intensified campaigns
Raila is EAC’s candidate for the AUC post after he was backed by regional presidents during the unveiling of his candidature in Nairobi in July.
In November, Raila intensified campaigns for his bid, pitching tent in Francophone countries, nations some analysts have said could have a soft spot for his main rival Ali Youssouf.
Raila campaigned in Abuja, Nigeria, a significant capital given that the country is the seat of the current chairman of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). The bloc has 15 members.
Cote D’Ivoire, Gambia, Ghana, Guinea Bissau, Liberia, Nigeria, Senegal, Sierra Leone, Togo and Cape Verde are some of the members of Ecowas that Raila sought to woo.
Former Kenyan ambassador to USA Elkana Odembo, who is one of Raila's strategists, said the campaigns have been intensified.
"We have entered a crucial phase and are working round the clock to ensure that we secure support for Kenya's candidate, former prime minister Raila Odinga,'' he said.
Raila has been traversing the continent and even attending global summits alongside President William Ruto as part of the government's efforts to seek support for his candidacy.
His CV has been translated into six languages.
The nations that have agreed to back Raila’s bid include the DRC, Tanzania, Uganda, Rwanda, Nigeria, Zambia, Zimbabwe and Malawi.
Burundi, Seychelles, South Sudan, Guinea-Bissau, Angola, Gambia, Algeria and the Republic of the Congo have also pledged to support the former Prime Minister.
Ruto’s administration is believed to have unleashed considerable resources and is not taking any chances with Raila’s main rival seen to be Djibout’s candidate.
Djibouti in the Horn of Africa mostly speaks French and Arabic, with a GDP of about $3.515 billion, according to 2022 statistics.
This is a drop in the ocean compared with Kenya, a regional powerhouse with a GDP of $113.4 billion.
