More than two million Kenyans will require humanitarian food assistance until May, a report from the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) has said.
The early warning system estimates that between 2.5 and 2.99 million people will need food aid from October last year to May.
Food insecurity is expected to peak in February, before the onset of the March to May long rains.
In particular, pastoral areas in Turkana, Marsabit and Garissa counties are projected to experience a food crisis through to at least May. This is largely due to the belowaverage October-December short rains.
The FEWS NET early warning report pointed out that low livestock herd sizes, coupled with limited improvements in forage and livestock conditions during the OND short rains, resulted in belowaverage milk availability.
As a result, households resorted to negative coping strategies, such as skipping meals, to meet their basic food needs.
In other pastoral areas, the report said stressed food security outcomes are anticipated until January 2025 due to below-average forage and water availability resulting from the inadequate OND short rains.
“The food security situation from February to May 2025 is expected to worsen, with Tana River, Samburu, Wajir and Mandera counties projected to face a severe food crisis. This is attributed to both the belowaverage OND short rains and the anticipated below-average March to May long rains, which could further exacerbate livestock conditions,” the report says.
The report also said the anticipated below-average OND short rains harvest in February will further deplete household staple grain stocks and income from crop sales, exacerbating the crisis in counties such as Makueni and Kitui.
“Without typical food stocks, households are expected to rely on consumption and livelihood coping strategies that indicate a crisis.”
Global weather forecasts projected that the March to May long rains are also likely to be below average, particularly in eastern Kenya, although uncertainty remains due to emerging La Niña conditions and conflicting ensemble forecasts.
According to the Kenya Meteorological Department, the climate outlook for January 2025 indicates that sunny and dry conditions are expected across most parts of the country.
However, some areas in the Highlands West and East of the Rift Valley, the Lake Victoria Basin, the Central and South Rift Valley, the Southeastern lowlands and the Coastal region may experience occasional rainy days, with rainfall expected to be near or below the January Long-Term Mean.
The forecast also predicted high temperatures in most parts of the country, which could lead to heat stress and related discomforts such as headaches and fatigue.
David Gikungu, director of Meteorological Services, advised the public to stay hydrated and limit outdoor activities, particularly in the afternoons, to avoid heat-related health issues.
He however noted that the dry conditions are expected to be favourable for harvesting fastmaturing crops, such as beans.
Additionally, the prolonged sunny periods are expected to be conducive to solar power generation. However, the dry weather is likely to reduce water availability in the Arid and Semi-Arid Lands regions, particularly in the northern parts of the country.
Gikungu urged communities in
these areas to use water sparingly,
while those in areas with occasional
rainfall should take advantage of the
opportunity to harvest rainwater for
both domestic and livestock needs.
