AJUOK: Storm clouds in Luoland and ODM as Raila move to Addis Ababa nears

Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni, President William Ruto, and African Union Commission chairperson candidate Raila Odinga arrive for the fourth edition of Piny Luo cultural festival in Bondo, Siaya county / HIRAM OMONDI/PCS

At the beginning of the year, thousands of Luos, as well as related Luo tribes from Uganda, South Sudan, Tanzania and Ethiopia, gathered at Got Ramogi in Bondo constituency, the revered home of the community’s patriarch, for the aptly named Piny Luo Festival.

On the face of it, it was a celebration of the rich Luo culture, but those living within these borders long enough know that culture is often the mask for a much bigger political play at such an extravaganza.

This year’s event was attended by Ugandan strongman Yoweri Museveni, who has a love-hate relationship with the Luo. Kenyan President William Ruto also attended.

Their presence elevated the festival to a sort of national and regional spectacle. They both gave generous praise to the community’s kingpin, Raila Odinga, who is seeking election as the African Union Commission chairman in a few weeks.

It is not far-fetched to state that President Ruto also had interests in attending. If you were new to the land, you probably missed the quiet storm raging below the surface in community and by extension, in ODM politics.

In public, nearly everyone among the leadership of the Luo community and within their favourite Orange movement, declares he or she backs Raila’s anticipated ascension to continental glory as AUC chair. But make no mistake, many of those who purport to wish him well in this endeavour secretly hope he doesn’t actually win.

Those who genuinely do wish him victory, also personal, collective, and diverse interests at play, should the ODM supremo leave for Addis. When you dig deeper into the underlying conversations in the land of Ramogi, you are confronted by the stark reality of the different groups whose interests basically clash.

The first is that of entrenched political networks, mostly made up elderly politicians and sitting elected leaders. Although they remain in the bandwagon cheering Raila’s continental pursuit, they hope he fails to move to Addis and stays on as ODM party leader in order to ‘lift their hands’ ahead of the anticipated cutthroat competition in the 2027 polls.

The second group is diametrically opposed to the first. It consists largely of younger voters and leaders within the community, who can’t wait for the ODM boss to switch roles from local politics to the seat of continental power. Thus, in their view, he leaves the ground ‘free’ enough for them to ‘sort out’ current leaders, seen largely as a bunch of ne’er do wells who ride on shallow sloganeering such as, ‘If Raila says left, we go left’, without matching the rhetoric with meaningful developmental and leadership deliverables.

This second group desires a political massacre and does not want the community’s premier leader to intervene.

There is yet a third group, one that genuinely prays for a Raila victory in the AU elections next month, seeing his impending victory as a just reward in his twilight years and a consolation prize for all the electoral losses, or to be precise, stolen victories back home. In this category are those who do not really care much about the political consequences attendant to Raila’s absence, believing that water will ultimately find its level and whatever needs to happen locally can be left to happen.

Since the Luo community makes up the majority of the ODM party and remains the backbone of its support, these succession conversations within the region invariably relate to the party, too.

An emerging cast of young leaders, whose most prominent Luo face is Embakasi East MP Babu Owino, is increasingly challenging the established order in the party.

He perfectly fits within the group for whom the party leader’s move to the AU would present a perfect chance for a fresh start within the movement and his own ascent.

Truth be told, the Embakasi legislator may seem like a lone ranger, given that he is the boldest of all, but his crusade for a new order has huge support in the party, both among a silent number of elected leaders and a large section of younger party members.

Predictably, party elders are uncomfortable with the new blood currently causing waves and practically standing by for Raila’s exit to flex their muscles. Just as within national politics, the youth in ODM are restless for new leadership, and sooner rather than later, the party will have to confront this reality.

There is a truism hardly ever acknowledged in the political realm. Which is that the long-term sustenance of ODM requires its top leadership, when the time comes, to move from Raila to a non-Luo leader.

The danger of a Luo to Luo leadership transition is that it may make the party vulnerable to departures by senior non-Luo figures and end up being just another small bargaining tool for tribal interests. It doesn’t help that apart from Raila, there is really no other Luo leader in the party with the gravitas and charisma to keep people from other regions in the movement.

A non-Luo party leader, enjoying Luo support, is the surest fishing net for the next phase of the movement; it would sort of correct any perceived wrongs from the community’s political moves soon after Jaramogi Oginga Odinga died in 1994 and his Ford Kenya went up in smoke.

ODM will be turning 20 this year, crowning two decades as the most consequential political movement in the country since the restoration of multiparty democracy. Ideally, it should be a year of celebrations and a carnival atmosphere for the party. Instead, there is anxiety in the party over the post-Raila phase, the appearance of calm merely being a façade.

Torn between those who want to work with government and those who want to safeguard the party from such encroachment, the push and pull threatens to divide the members right down the middle.

Raila himself appears unwilling to intervene, or possibly wants to wait until after the AU elections to make a move. As a wily political fox with massive experience in political strategy, the ODM chief surely has an heir in mind, but the delicate dynamics of asserting his authority should he attempt to manage the succession may be stopping any such action.

Besides, as long as the AU elections remain on the table, Raila will not be persuaded to make a drastic move. Time, however, is running out and the vultures are circling.

The loud orchestra in the party that advocates an unofficial coalition with the ruling UDA is being countered by the pragmatic wing, averring that the party’s distinct identity is paramount in charting its future.

At this time, the most vocal proponent of the philosophy of ODM’s independence from state encumbrances is party secretary general Edwin Sifuna.

To his credit, he remains consistent in the message that the party cannot become a government appendage, capitulating to amplify President Ruto’s message while still expecting to be a key player in the coming political dispensation.

Ultimately, however, all the factions agree that after the AU elections, a storm is coming, and it will sweep through the party with devastating effect.

There will be casualties.