Former Prime Minister Raila Odinga is the clear favourite to win the African Union Commission chairmanship next month, although he faces stiff competition for the top job, a fresh analysis shows.
Analysis by the Star indicates by Tuesday, Raila only needed the support of 12 extra countries to secure victory in the epic polls to be held in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.
The contest is, however, fraught with diplomatic intrigues, some triggered outside Africa, and the countries that have pledged their support are not bound by those promises.
The winner of the AUC chairperson seat is required to garner support of two-thirds of the 55 countries eligible to vote, translating to 33 African Union member states.
So far, the former Prime Minister has bagged the support of at least 21 countries, making him the front runner in the race to succeed Chad’s Moussa Faki.
Apart from the support of President William Ruto and state machinery, Raila has also leveraged his old networks in his marathon continental campaign.
If successful, the AU job will elevate Raila to a near head of state, a status that has eluded him in five presidential runs.
Raila faces stiff competition from Djibouti’s Mohamoud Youssouf and Richard Randriamandrato of Madagascar. The elections will be held on February 25.
The nations that have agreed to back Raila’s bid include Mauritius, Togo, Equitorial Guinnea, Gambia, Senegal, DRC, Tanzania, Uganda, Rwanda, Zambia, Zimbabwe and Malawi.
Burundi, Seychelles, Ghana, South Sudan, Guinea-Bissau, Angola, Algeria and the Republic of the Congo have also pledged to support Raila’s bid.
However, the election is not a walk in the park and is influenced by many geopolitical intrigues.
There is no binding agreement that a country that has pledged to back a candidate cannot change its mind.
Raila is on the campaign trail with the solid support of the government.
President Ruto has deployed all state machinery to help Raila’s bid.
Last week the President was in Ghana, where he secured the support of Togo and Guinea Bissau.
“In Accra, Ghana, met the Equatorial Guinea vice president Teodoro Nguema Obiang Mangue who pledged his country's support for Raila Odinga's AUC chairperson bid,” Ruto announced.
Raila has lined up back-to-back campaigns for the post this month as the race for the job goes down to the wire.
This veteran opposition chief has been conducting campaigns in the southern part of the continent.
Raila on Monday flew to Zimbabwe to drum up support for his candidature. Zimbabwean President Emmerson Mnangagwa hosted the Kenyan candidate upon his arrival in the country.
“We landed in Harare, Zimbabwe today to a warm reception courtesy of President Emmerson Mnangagwa,” Raila said on X.
“It's been a pleasure sharing with the president my vision for Africa and discussing my candidature for the AUC chairmanship.”
Raila is also keen to win the support of newly elected presidents from the region, votes that may tilt the scale in his favour.
The new presidents are Daniel Chapo (Mozambique), Netumbo Nandi–Ndaitwah (Namibia) and Duma Boko (Botswana).
“There are three new leaders following the recent elections and it is important that he (Raila) visits them, congratulates them, hears from them about their expectations of the AUC and shares with them his vision and priorities,” Raila’s campaign chief Elkanah Odembo told the Star last week.
Odembo is an accomplished diplomat who served for a long time as Kenya’s ambassador to the United States.
The campaign team has also lined up seven countries within the larger Southern African Development Community bloc which Raila will visit in the next two weeks. SADC boasts 16 member states.
They are Angola, Botswana, Comoros, Democratic Republic of Congo, Eswatini, Lesotho, Madagascar, Malawi, Mauritius, Mozambique, Namibia, Seychelles, South Africa, Tanzania, Zambia and Zimbabwe.
The Eastern bloc is divided between Raila and Djibouti’s candidate Mohamoud Youssouf.
Late last year, Somalia threw its weight behind Youssouf, dealing a blow to Raila who has launched a cross-Africa campaign.
Somalia’s decision was informed by historical tensions, competing national interests, and strategic considerations that reflect the complexities of regional diplomacy.
Kenya and Somalia have been having long-running tensions over maritime borders, with accusations of interference in Somalia’s internal affairs.
Supporting Raila would thus mean favouring Nairobi in the longstanding disputes.
The African Union chairperson is an important position within the African Union. The chairperson serves as the head of the AU elected by the assembly of heads of state and government.
The contest, seen as two-horse race, is likely to be shaped by strong geopolitics, language and religion of the AU member states.
Other factors likely to come into play are age of the candidates, the Anglophone/Francophone divide, Western influence and the emerging forces in the continent such as Russia and China.
The opposition chief is leveraging his old regional networks well as his vast experience of the continent in his vote-hunting mission.
Apart from playing mediation roles in some parts of the continent, Raila served as AU High Representative for Infrastructure for five years.
The position gave him an elevated viewpoint for understanding some of the challenges of the continent.
“As High Representative for the continent, that position gave me an inside picture of what is happening in Africa Union,” Raila said during the Mjadala debate in Ethiopia last month.
During the debate, Raila said there would be fair representation of the continent in the UN Security Council.
Under his leadership, he said, permanent representation for Africa, complete with veto powers, is a must.
He lamented that Africa, with 55 sovereign nations, does not have any seat in the UN Security Council, yet Europe has three.
“I'm not going to talk about permanent representation. If the heads of state see it fit that I should head this, I will work with all the leadership of the continent to ensure that we get fair treatment on the international scene,” he said
