The weatherman has said near to above-average rainfall is expected during the March-May long rains season.
The March to May (MAM) period is the major rainfall season (long rains) over most parts of Kenya and much of the equatorial Eastern Africa.
The highest seasonal rainfall amounts (greater than 300mm) are normally experienced over the Lake Victoria Basin, the Highlands West of the Rift Valley, the Central and South Rift Valley, the Highlands East of the Rift Valley (including Nairobi County) and the Coastal Strip.
The Kenya Meteorological Department director David Gikungu said near to above-average rainfall is expected over the Lake Victoria Basin, South Rift Valley, most of the Highlands West of the Rift Valley, the southern parts of the Southeastern lowlands and the extreme northern parts of northwestern Kenya.
He said near to below-average rainfall is expected over Central Rift Valley, Highlands East of the Rift Valley (including Nairobi County), most of Northwest, Coastal region, Southeastern lowlands and isolated areas over the Highlands West of the Rift Valley.
Gikungu said the rainfall is expected over northeastern Kenya as well as the north coast.
The MAM 2025 forecast indicates that near to above-average rainfall is expected over the Lake Victoria Basin, South Rift Valley, most of the Highlands West of the Rift Valley, the southern parts of the Southeastern lowlands and the extreme northern parts of northwestern Kenya.
Near to below average rainfall is expected over Central Rift Valley, Highlands East of the Rift Valley (including Nairobi County), most of Northwest, Coastal region, Southeastern lowlands and isolated areas over the Highlands West of the Rift Valley.
He added that below-average rainfall is expected over northeastern Kenya as well as the north coast.
“During the season, it is likely that several areas will have a generally poor to fair distribution of rainfall in both time and space,” Gikungu said on Wednesday during the unveiling of the MAM forecast.
“The onset of the season is expected to be normal to late-onset, with occasional dry spells.”
He said that occasional storms are likely to be experienced in some parts of the country during the season.
The weatherman said the peak of the rains is expected to be in April for most regions, except over the Coastal Strip where the highest rainfall is expected in May.
According to the weatherman, areas to experience continued rainfall from February into the season include Lake Victoria Basin, South Rift Valley and some parts of the Highlands West of the Rift Valley (Siaya, Kisumu, Homa Bay, Migori, Busia, Narok, Bomet, Kisii, Nyamira, Kericho, Nandi, Kakamega, Vihiga, Elgeyo Marakwet, Uasin Gishu, Trans Nzoia, Bungoma and Southern parts of West Pokot).
In Central and North of the Rift Valley (Nakuru, Baringo, and Western parts of Laikipia rainfall is likely to be near to below the long-term average amounts for the season.
He, however, said occasional rainfall may be experienced in February.
Northwestern Counties (Turkana and Samburu) and the Northern parts of West Pokot's expected rainfall amounts are likely to be near to below the long-term average for the season.
However, a few areas bordering South Sudan are likely to experience near to above-average rainfall.
The weatherman said the Highlands East of the Rift Valley and Nairobi County including (Nyandarua, Nyeri, Kirinyaga, Murang'a, Kiambu, Embu, Meru, Tharaka Nithi and Eastern Laikipia) are likely to experience rainfall during the season, with some breaks.
The expected rainfall amounts are likely to be near to below the season's long-term average.
Gikungu said the Southeastern Lowlands Kitui, Makueni, Machakos, Kajiado, Taita
Taveta and Tana River's expected rainfall amounts are likely to be near to below the long-term average for the season.
However, Kajiado and parts of Taita Taveta counties are likely to experience near to above-average rainfall.
The Northeastern Counties (Mandera, Marsabit, Wajir, Garissa, Isiolo) areas are expected to experience occasional rainfall, whose amounts are likely to be below the long-term average for the season.
In the Coastal Strip (Mombasa, Kwale, Kilifi and Lamu counties) rainfall is likely to be near to below the long-term average amounts for the season. However, Lamu is expected to receive below-normal rainfall.