The Sahel region of Africa is the "epicentre of global terrorism" and now, for the first time, accounts for "over half of all terrorism-related deaths", according to the Global Terrorism Index (GTI).
Its new report says that in this semi-arid area to the south of the Sahara Desert 3,885 people out of a worldwide total of 7,555 died.
The GTI report adds that while the global figure has declined from a peak of 11,000 in 2015 the figure for the Sahel has increased nearly tenfold since 2019, as extremist and insurgent groups "continue to shift their focus" towards the region.
The index is published by the Institute for Economics and Peace, a think-tank dedicated to researching global peace and conflict.
It defines terrorism as the "threatened or actual use of illegal force and violence by a non-state actor to attain a political, economic, religious, or social goal through fear, coercion, or intimidation".
The Sahel stretches from the west coast of Africa eastwards across the continent. The GTI's definition of the region includes parts of 10 countries: Burkina Faso, Mali, Niger, Cameroon, Guinea, The Gambia, Senegal, Nigeria, Chad and Mauritania.
IS-Sahel has reportedly doubled the amount of territory it controls in Mali since the country's coups of 2020 and 2021 - largely in the east near its borders with Burkina Faso and Niger - while JNIM also continued to expand its reach, according to a UN panel of experts on Mali.
The GTI report notes that both groups have recruited more fighters, including child soldiers in the case of IS.
"In some instances, people tend to be in a point of choicelessness by the time they decide to join a militant group," says Beverly Ochieng, a senior analyst specialising in Francophone Africa at Control Risks, a geopolitical risk consultancy. "These are communities that are very vulnerable."
The GTI report explains how political instability and weak governance are creating ideal conditions for insurgent groups to grow, pointing to conflict as "the primary driver of terrorism".
The Sahel is sometimes referred to as the "coup belt" of Africa.
Since 2020 there have been six successful coups in the region as defined by the GTI report: two in Mali, two in Burkina Faso, one in Guinea and one in Niger. These countries are now all run by military juntas.
"The Sahel has experienced a breakdown in state society," says Dr Folahanmi Aina, an expert on the region at SOAS University in London.
"It's been informed by years of neglect from political leaders who haven't necessarily prioritised people-centred governance and local grievances have festered, resulting in terror groups trying to leverage these."
There was a perception that civilian governments were unable to combat security threats from insurgent groups, "but despite these juntas taking over, they haven't necessarily improved optics on the ground and in fact insecurity has worsened," says Dr Aina. "The juntas are professionally unprepared for the rigours of governance."
In fact in 2024, Burkina Faso "remained the country most affected by terrorism for the second year in a row" according to the GTI.
In the 14 years since the report began, it is the only country to top the list that is not Iraq or Afghanistan.
Jihadist groups sustain their operations in the Sahel with a range of illicit economic activities, including kidnap for ransom and cattle rustling, according to the GTI report.
The region has also become a key route for drug traffickers bringing cocaine from South America to Europe, and the report notes that "drug trafficking represents one of the most financially lucrative illicit activities linked to terrorism in the Sahel".
It points out that that some groups veer away from directly engaging in organised crime, however, preferring to "make money by imposing taxes or providing security and protection in exchange for payment".
It goes on to explain: "This model not only generates revenue but also helps these groups integrate into local communities, strengthening their influence."
Insurgent groups are also vying for control of the Sahel's rich natural resources. Niger is the world's seventh-largest producer of uranium, and unregulated artisanal gold mines found throughout the region are often taken advantage of by the likes of IS-Sahel and JNIM.
Following the recent wave of coups, Sahel governments have pivoted away from Western allies, such as France and the US, towards China and Russia for support in tackling militants.
"Right now we're seeing that Russia is taking more assertive control over Russian paramilitaries in the region known as the Africa Corps [formerly Wagner]," says Ms Ochieng. "Their work is to train and support the local armies to be able to counter the insurgency in the region, but so far it hasn't been effective."
As a result, the GTI report warns that there is now a risk of overspill beyond the so-called "epicentre of terror" to neighbouring countries.
In fact, it says this may already be happening - Togo recorded 10 attacks and 52 deaths in 2024, the most since the index began. These were largely concentrated along the country's border with Burkina Faso.
Ms Ochieng agrees with this assessment, saying that "the expansion of militant groups within the region in countries like Benin or Togo or other coastal West African states seems to be imminent".
