El Nino expected to last at least until April 2024 – World Met

The ongoing El Nino event is expected to last at least until April 2024, the World Meteorological Organisation has said.

This warning comes even as Kenya grapples with the effects of El Nino.

A spot check indicates that parts of North Eastern counties have been submerged with many families being displaced

Kenya Red Cross announced a total of 13,473 people residing in the North Eastern region have been displaced following the harsh impact of floods. 

The organisation said a total of 26,011 families have been affected following floods as a result of El Nino. 

The counties are; Wajir, Garissa, and Mandera, where people have mostly been affected, with homes submerging and lives disrupted.  

But in a statement on Wednesday, the World Meteorological Organisation said El Niño would influence weather patterns and contribute to a further spike in temperatures both on land and in the ocean.

“As of mid-October 2023, sea surface temperatures and other atmospheric and oceanic indicators in the central-eastern tropical Pacific are consistent with El Nino,” it said.

“There is a 90 per cent likelihood it will persist throughout the upcoming northern hemisphere winter/southern hemisphere summer.”

In the update, based on historical patterns and current long-range predictions, it is anticipated it will gradually diminish during the next year around the world.

El Nino occurs on average every two to seven years and typically lasts nine to 12 months.

WMO secretary general Petteri Taalas said El Nino impacts on global temperature typically play out in the year after its development, in this case in 2024.

“Extreme events such as heatwaves, drought, wildfires, heavy rain and floods will be enhanced in some regions, with major impacts. That is why WMO is committed to the early warnings for all initiative to save lives and minimise economic losses,” he said.

El Nino last occurred in 2018-2019 and was followed by an exceptionally long La Nina -- El Nino's cooling opposite -- which ended earlier this year.

"Above-normal sea-surface temperatures are also expected across most of the global oceans, while above-normal temperatures are expected, too, over almost all land areas," it said.

Other impacts are likely to include above-normal rainfall in the Horn of Africa region and the La Plata basin in South America.

Last week, the Kenya Meteorological Department confirmed the heavy rainfall experienced in the country is El Nino.

Kenya Met had earlier predicted that El Nino would hit the country from mid-October to December.

However, President William Ruto said the country will not experience El Nino rains as earlier predicted.

Kenya Met Director David Gikungu said the confusion that existed comes out of associating El Nino with rains.

He said El Nino is not always about rainfall but there are other factors which show El Nino.