Why Raila’s 18-year-old grip on ODM is ending

Former Prime Minister Raila Odinga’s 18-year-old rein as the de facto leader of ODM is expected to come to an end this week.

The Orange Party’s top decision-making organs will sit on Tuesday and Wednesday to settle on Raila’s successor.

Raila, who has been at the helm of ODM since its inception in 2005, is set to hang his boots, at last for now, as he focuses on his continental job bid.

The former premier has weathered political headwinds to steady ODM to be the most stable and structured party after the independence party Kanu.

Since the party was formed after the 2005 referendum in which Raila led opposition bigwigs to a resounding victory over then-President Mwai Kibaki, Raila has stood for president on the ODM ticket four times.

The name was coined from the symbol which was used by the “NO’’ campaign in the 2005 referendum which was an orange, officially becoming a political party ahead of the 2007 general election.

Since then, Raila has been the undisputed leader of ODM, growing the outfit into one of the biggest political parties in the country, although the presidency has been elusive over the period.

With the curtains falling on Raila’s participation in local politics, the ODM boss is setting his eyes on the Africa Union Commission Chairperson post whose elections will be held in February 2025.

Recently, Raila signaled that he will be exiting the local political scene, declaring that he was moving from Kenyan politics to continental politics in his bid for the AUC job.

“I am not going to be very active in Kenyan politics henceforth as I continue to focus my attention on the continental campaign. But it is a transition phase from active participation in Kenyan politics towards African continental politics," Raila said.

Raila was two weeks ago unveiled by President William Ruto as Kenya’s AUC candidate at State House during a ceremony attended by at least three East African Community heads of State.

Since then, Raila has turned his focus on the AUC bid, embarking on continental campaigns to lobby presidents to support his bid for the continent’s foremost job.

The former Prime Minister was recently in President Ruto’s entourage to Beijing’ China, where he held talks with some African presidents on the sidelines of the China-Africa Summit.

Raila’s imminent exit from the local scene has triggered jostling within the ODM party with politicians scrambling to take over his larger-than-life position.

He had last month, picked Governors Simba Arati(Kisii) Abdulswamad Nassir and Vihiga Senator Godfrey Osotsi as deputy party leaders as he unveiled an expanded ODM leadership.

The decision was seen as a move by Raila to usher in the succession plan in his ODM party ahead of his exit from the local scene.

On Wednesday, the ODM Central Management Committee, the top decision-making organ of the party, will settle on an interim party leader to take over from Raila.

 “The Central Management Committee will sit on Wednesday to formally initiate the process of picking Baba(Raila’s) heir in the ODM party so that we free him to concentrate on AU campaigns," said a senior ODM official aware of the plans.

There are conflicting views about who will succeed Raila in the party’s leadership amid friction among top officials working on the succession plan.

Saboti MP Caleb Amisi lifted the lid on the anxiety in the ODM party over Raila’s exit, fronting ODM Secretary General Edwin Sifuna to take over from Odinga.

“It is my considered view that Edwin Sifuna should serve as party leader to hold brief for Baba as he campaigns for the coveted continental post," Amisi said.

Amisi also said Siaya Governor James Orengo should take charge as the chairperson of the Council of Elders to offer advisory counsel to the ODM leadership in Raila’s absence.

“The rejuvenation of Africa's biggest democratic party lies in the freshness, energy, charisma, enthusiasm and dedication of its youthful supporters," Amisi said.

This year, the ODM National Executive Council approved the incorporation of two organs in the party’s Constitution as part of Raila’s efforts to steady the outfit and protect it from mischief.

The NEC session that was presided over by Raila, ratified a proposal to entrench the Board of Trustees and the Elders Council in the party Constitution.

The Board of Trustees is an entity comprising ODM linchpins who serve as the vision bearers of the orange party and include Raila’s most loyal lieutenants over the years.

Members include former Busia Senator Amos Wako, ODM Deputy Secretary General Agnes Zani, Siaya Senator and Raila's brother Oburu Odinga, ODM National Treasurer Timothy Bosire and Director of Administration and Finance Joshua Kawino.

There are reports that the party is considering picking someone else who is not within the ODM leadership structure to take over from Raila.

If the top organs go for this option, then the three deputies, who are the highest-ranking party officials after Raila, would be overlooked in the succession matrix.