Can Riggy G mobilise votes beyond Mt Kenya?

Former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua may not contest for any political seat in the 2027 election but he’s expected to be a determining factor in the political scene.

Already, he has given notice of a coming revolution, which he has promised to announce in January. Gachagua, vowing to teach President William Ruto a lesson, has told Kenyans to await a coalition that will make the National Rainbow Coalition of 2002 look like child’s play.

Narc was a coalition of opposition groups, which opposed President Daniel Moi’s preferred successor Uhuru Kenyatta in the 2002 presidential election, ending Kanu’s long period of uninterrupted rule.

“The political movement that will start in this mountain in 2025 will make the 2002 Narc look like a joke. We shall join other Kenyans to get on the right trajectory and define our destiny,” the former DP said.

Gachagua has described his 2022 support for Ruto as a “political miscalculation” and pledged not to “repeat the same mistake” as he works with like-minded leaders to unveil a new political direction.

Mt Kenya gave Ruto 47 per cent of the vote that made him President.

Gachagua became Kenya’s first Deputy President to be impeached after the Senate upheld his removal on October 17, following an initial resolution by the National Assembly.

New political alliances swiftly started to take shape after his re- moval with the ex-DP reportedly planning to join forces with Ka- lonzo Musyoka (Wiper) and Eugene Wamalwa (DAP-Kenya) to challenge Ruto in the 2027 election.

However, questions abound as to whether he is able to marshal support from other parts of the country aside from his Mt Kenya backyard. Political analyst Mark Bichachi believes Gachagua does not need to move one step out of Mt Kenya to assert his influence in the 2027 polls.

“If Gachagua can command a key portion of the Mt Kenya bloc, he can be a major political player in the 2027 elections,” he added.

“He does not need to bother with other regions or anybody else,” Bichachi said that, since the former DP may not be able to contest for an elective position, he needs to command a huge population to strike a major deal on the negotiating table.

“He will form a coalition promise to bring a certain number of votes. This will give him a big negotiating space. Simply put, Gachagua does not need to move out of Mt Kenya.”

By picking Kithure Kindiki to replace Gachagua, Ruto is keen to maintain support in the Mt Kenya region.

However, some analysts have described this move as political suicide.

Kenya Kwanza administration now looks up to Kindiki as the guiding light of Ruto’s ambitions of retaining or hiving off a significant chunk of the Mt Kenya vote bloc.

The President is expected to rely on his new DP’s capacity to appeal to the hearts and souls of Mt Kenya East and Mt Kenya West.

While the tide has been tough for pro-Ruto legislators in Mt Ken- ya, those allied to Gachagua are being referred to as heroes and are getting enthusiastic receptions at social gatherings.

They include Gathoni Wamuchomba (Githunguri), Wanjiku Muhia (Kipipiri), Njeri Maina (Kirinyaga) and Senator Joe Nyutu (Murang’a), Amos Mwago (Starehe), Karungo Thang’wa (Kiambu) and Edward Muriu (Gatanga).

Political analyst Fred Sasia said the impeachment of Gachagua meant a significant turning point in Kenya’s political landscape.

He explained that once a towering figure who rapidly ascended from a District Officer to the country’s second-highest office, Gachagua’s political star dimmed dramatically the day he was ousted. Sasia added that Mt Kenya region, known as a political powerhouse and often described as Kenya’s king-maker, has a reputation for aligning with candidates poised to form government.

“Gachagua’s fall has left a vacuum in this influential bloc, but his chances of reclaiming his former glory are slim. To stay relevant, he might consider aligning himself with a young, ambitious, and influential politician like Ndindi Nyoro, positioning himself as a chief mobiliser,” he said.

“This strategy could make him a beloved figure in the region, but it wouldn’t necessarily grant him a pathway back to government un- less the current legal barriers are repealed.”

Sasia said Gachagua’s strengths as a mobiliser are undeniable, having played a pivotal role in delivering the Mt Kenya vote for Ruto.

“However, his political appeal is largely confined to his home region. His staunch advocacy for Mt Kenya interests has earned him admiration within the community but alienated other regions, where he is often viewed as a tribalist. This limited reach makes it challenging for him to resonate with a national audience.”

He added that Gachagua, despite the setback, has remained fearless and vocal, which he said is an asset.

Sasia said that in a political landscape where many leaders shy away from controversial topics, the former DP speaks his mind with conviction, unafraid to challenge the status quo.

He added that Gachagua has even come out to claim that Ruto defied his advice against awarding the Indian Group conglomerate, Adani Group, tenders to expand the Jomo Kenyatta International Airport and power transmission lines.

“As a campaign mobiliser, he can still draw crowds and energise supporters, provided he works within a diverse team that bridges regional divides.”

Sasia added that Gachagua’s journey serves as a reminder of the weight of leadership and the importance of wise counsel.

“Whether he can reinvent himself in Kenya’s dynamic political arena remains to be seen. For now, his role as a national political figure hangs in the balance, his influence dimmed but not entirely extinguished,” he said.

Even as he seeks to consolidate his backyard, Gachagua has maintained that Uhuru is the king of the mountain.

Gachagua has hinted at burying the hatchet with the retired president while regretting his past actions where he openly attacked and rebelled against Uhuru and the larger Kenyatta family.

The former DP also has a chance to fight the impeachment all the way to the Supreme Court to be eligible to hold any elective or appointive state position.

Former Nairobi Governor Mike Sonko has urged him to persist in seeking justice. Sonko said that a person is not disqualified from holding office until they exhaust all avenues of appeal.

The former governor said he believes the former DP still stands a chance to be on the ballot.

“Let me educate you a bit on the law because there’s a misconception that once you’re impeached, you cannot vie for office again. That’s not true,” he said.

“Allow me to boost Riggy G’s morale. In our Constitution, Article 193 ( 3 ) says a person is not disqualified under clause ( 2 ) unless all possibility of appeal or review of the relevant sentence or decision has been exhausted,” he said on November 5.