For 61 years, Sino-Kenya ties have strengthened significantly, reaching a strategic level that other African nations could emulate.
However, Kenya has yet to fully unlock the economic potential of this relationship.
As President William Ruto’s administration emphasises an economy-focused foreign policy, Kenya should continue initiatives launched by the previous administration to address the trade imbalance with China.
The deficit rose to $3.62 billion (Sh485.08 billion under the prevailing exchange rate) in 2022 from $3.51 billion (Sh470.34 billion) in the prior year, the Central Bank of Kenya reported.
In September 2024, China ex- ported $620 million and imported $17.8 million from Kenya, resulting in a positive trade balance of $603 million for Beijing.
Between September 2023 and September 2024, China’s exports decreased by $63.7 million (9.31 percent) from $684 million to $620 million, while imports increased by $1.84 million ( 11.6 percent) from $15.9 million to $17.8 million.
The diplomatic efforts begun under President Uhuru Kenyatta, including the 2019 Sanitary and Phytosanitary (SPS) agreement, opened the Chinese market for Kenya’s fro- zen avocados.
While the deal also allows the export of fruits, tea, cut flowers, and vegetables, Kenya has not maximised this opportunity. By expanding exports to China, Kenya could reduce its trade deficit with this Asian economic powerhouse.
When negotiating infrastructure projects with Beijing, the Kenyan government should prioritise trade discussions as well.
China’s
cooperative approach encourages consensus-building and mutually
beneficial trade for the Global South.
Following the 2024 Forum on Chi- na-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) Summit, China reaffirmed its commitment to strengthen Sino-African ties, pledging to increase trade and support African economies.
As China remains Africa’s largest trading partner since 2009, its willingness to import more African goods creates diversification opportunities, yielding higher incomes for farmers and producers.
To protect its international avocado market, Kenya’s Horticulture Directorate bans the export of immature avocados each year.
Greater awareness among farmers about these export opportunities could prevent these bans and maintain Kenya’s reputation in the global market.
Expanding avocado cultivation, especially in regions facing low maize prices, would benefit Kenya’s food basket areas.
Government support, in the form of sensitisation and seedling distribution, would pro- mote diversification.
For example, increased awareness of the Chinese market could encourage farmers to cultivate high-demand crops such as avocado, macadamia, and purple tea.
Joint ventures between Kenyan and Chinese businesses could also boost exports, helping to reduce the trade deficit.
Under FOCAC, China has pledged to support African countries with $142.1 million in emergency food assistance, establish agricultural ‘demonstration areas’ covering more than 16,300 acres ( 6,600ha), send 500 agricultural ex- perts, and create a China-Africa agricultural innovation alliance.
Kenya should capitalise on these resources to bolster its agricultural sector.
Kenya’s recent drive to establish industrial parks aligns with one of FOCAC’s primary areas of focus: industrialisation.
Attracting Chinese
investment in value-added production could create jobs and stimulate
economic growth.
China has also committed to providing 60,000 training opportunities for Africans, particularly women and youth.
These skills and technology transfers could enhance Kenya’s industrialisation and entrepreneurship, allowing Kenyan products to gain a foothold in the Chinese market.
Before the Covid-19 pandemic,
Kenya actively promoted its agricultural exports in China, seeking to grow and diversify its market reach.
The current trade de cit, which reached $3.62 billion in 2022, reflects Kenya’s limited awareness of potential exports to China.
To address this gap, Kenya should leverage initiatives like FOCAC and the Belt and Road Initiative to in- crease exports to China.
Events like the China-Africa Economic and Trade Expo, held in Nairobi in May, provide further opportunities to promote trade between Kenya and China.
Addressing these gaps will ultimately lead to a more balanced and mutually beneficial economic partnership between Nairobi and Beijing.
