Former Prime Minister Raila Odinga finds himself at the epicenter of a significant leadership contest, not just on the continental stage but also within the intricate web of local politics.
As the leader of the Orange Democratic Movement, Raila has recently sent mixed signals regarding his political future and alliances, particularly concerning President William Ruto’s 2027 re-election campaign.
Initially, Raila seemed poised to step back from the political limelight, indicating he might support Ruto’s bid in a deal that would grant ODM key positions, including the Deputy President’s slot.
However, in a surprising twist on December 1, Raila declared that ODM would indeed field a presidential candidate in 2027, asserting, “When the elections come in 2027, ODM will be the next party to form the next government,” during a Thanksgiving event in Vihiga for local Senator Godfrey Osotsi.
This declaration coincided with internal changes within the ODM, where Osotsi was elevated to the position of deputy party leader.
Just two weeks following Raila’s announcement, President Ruto met with his predecessor Uhuru Kenyatta, a move interpreted by political analysts as a strategy to solidify Ruto’s influence in the Mount Kenya region.
This meeting came on the heels of Rigathi Gachagua’s ouster as Deputy President, which had led to speculation about Ruto’s waning support in the crucial Mount Kenya voting bloc—a constituency pivotal to his ascent to power.
As Ruto seeks to consolidate his political base, the possibility of Raila’s support becoming a bargaining chip in negotiations with Uhuru has raised eyebrows, suggesting that Raila’s influence may be diminishing as Ruto potentially receives backing from his former rival.
Reports have emerged indicating that several allies of Uhuru, including his brother Muhoho, may join Ruto’s government, further complicating Raila’s position.
A source within ODM reflected on this development, stating, “In politics, there is no shame. When our people were being offered these positions in government, some of our supporters were jittery. Now see, other people are coming to take them up.”
This sentiment underscores the precariousness of Raila’s political standing amid shifting alliances.
Within ODM, Deputy President Kithure Kindiki is often viewed as a transitional figure, with expectations that the Orange party may assume that role come 2027.
Ruto has vigorously defended his outreach to Uhuru and other political figures, emphasising that such collaborations are essential for the nation’s welfare.
During Jamhuri Day celebrations, Ruto remarked “I will continue to reach out to Kenyans of all walks of life, regardless of their ideological persuasion, to maximise the cross-pollination of the flower of our Republic and guarantee robust seeds for future seasons.”
Yet, critics from Central Kenya have dismissed these overtures as futile, claiming they lack the potential to sway the electorate.
Gatanga MP Edward Muriu articulated this skepticism, suggesting that the political dynamics in Mount Kenya have shifted irreversibly away from both Ruto and Uhuru, making any partnership a “zero-sum game.”
Faced with uncertainty about the Mount Kenya vote, Ruto’s camp appears increasingly inclined to appeal to Raila’s support base as a countermeasure.
In Vihiga, he called on his supporters to register and mobilise ahead of the next general election, asserting the necessity of preparation:
“It is not possible if our supporters are not well-prepared because we have a manifesto, we have faith, and we have the capacity and strength.”
He urged the newly appointed ODM leaders to effectively steer the party, emphasising the importance of expanding its influence and solidifying its foundation.
Political analysts speculate that Raila’s confusing statements might reflect a broader strategy to position himself for the 2027 elections, particularly if his bid for the African Union Commission chairmanship falters.
His mixed messages have prompted varied reactions across the political spectrum, with some ruling party members interpreting them as hypocritical.
Kakamega Senator Boni Khalwale highlighted this inconsistency, noting, “It bothers me that whilst in Nyanza your message with the masses is that you are unequivocally behind William Ruto when you come to Western, you send mixed signals.”
Members of the ruling coalition have largely welcomed the collaborative relationship between the government and the opposition, viewing it as a pragmatic approach to alleviating political tensions and addressing national challenges.
In recent months, Raila has played a crucial role in stabilising Ruto’s government amid widespread youth-led protests that erupted in June and July.
Their evolving friendship has been underscored by ODM MPs attending Ruto’s events and vocally supporting his government’s controversial policies.
Ruto’s administration has also extended significant backing to Raila’s African Union Commission chairmanship campaign, with his allies suggesting a potential new political coalition that incorporates opposition figures for the 2027 elections.
Nandi Senator Samson Cherargei and Ruto’s senior economic adviser Moses Kuria have both indicated that a formidable coalition is in the works, one that would secure Ruto’s re-election while possibly integrating Raila into the fold.
Cherargei confidently stated, “In 2027, there is only one horse, Ruto, in possible combination with Tinga; the rest are donkeys. He will vanquish them by 10 am.”
Kuria added to this narrative, suggesting that a new nationalist movement akin to the 2002 Rainbow Coalition is emerging, urging political players to align with it.
Makueni Senator Dan Maanzo weighed in on Raila’s fluctuating strategy, asserting that his mixed messages are part of a deliberate effort to prepare his support base for the upcoming electoral battle.
“ODM will field a candidate in 2027, that is for sure,” Maanzo asserted, pointing to the ongoing grassroots elections within the party as evidence of its commitment to maintaining a united front.
He emphasised that without a presidential candidate, the party’s cohesion would be at risk. ODM has been actively conducting grassroots polls across the country, with the electoral process set to culminate in a national delegates conference to elect new leadership.
Beyond these elections, Raila has initiated reforms aimed at restructuring the party’s administration in preparation for the 2027 polls.
However, his recent remarks have also sown discord within his ranks.
ODM Secretary General Edwin Sifuna has echoed Raila’s stance, insisting there is no deal with Ruto and reaffirming the party’s intention to pursue power in the next election.
“Since the ODM party was formed in 2005, I have never seen a general election where the party has not fielded a candidate, and the upcoming elections will be no different,” Sifuna stated.
He underscored the importance of the ongoing grassroots elections in positioning ODM as a formidable political entity by 2027.
