Why Raila, Ruto deal has split ODM officials

A simmering row has rocked ODM amid jitters the party could implode in the absence of Raila Odinga, who is the front-runner in the Africa Union Commission chairmanship election next month.

Cracks have appeared in the party that has remained united for two decades, the current deal with President William Ruto’s broad- based government at the centre of the fallout.

Raila’s key allies, including top ODM officials, are sharply divided on how the party should approach the next election: support Ruto’s re-election or front their own candidate?

Some insiders say Ruto’s administration is unpopular and could easily lose the election even with the support of ODM, a possibility that could sink the political careers of many within the opposition party.

For months, this concern has been the subject of secret discussions among ODM political big- wigs until Wednesday when ODM secretary general Edwin Sifuna revealed it publicly.

“If you are unpopular, it does not matter how many leaders you bring around you. Ruto will lose the elections even if we supported him as ODM. I am very clear in my mind,” Sifuna said in a morning Citizen TV interview.

“If you look at the political dynamics in the country right now, it would be foolish for ODM not to field a presidential candidate. It would be extremely foolish. If you look at the math, Ruto was declared President by a margin of 200,000 votes. All Raila needs to do, all ODM needs to do, is to keep all its constituencies. We have not lost any of our constituencies. He [Ruto] has lost almost half of his constituencies in Mt Kenya.”

Sifuna argues Raila lost the elections in 2022 despite the support of 26 political parties, including the incumbent president for inheriting the political baggage of Jubilee’s ten-year rule.

Amid the internal split, on Friday ODM held its first Central Committee meeting this year, where the future of the party was discussed.

The meeting chaired by acting Party Leader Anyang’ Nyong’o re- solved to warn members to avoid drumming support for Ruto, whom they described as a competitor.

“We call on all our members to remember that ODM remains a distinct political party in compe- tition to win power by democratic means. To this end, we must be guarded in our pronouncements on the future of the party and particularly refrain from beating the drums of our competitors,” the committee told the press.

ODM shall remain the fore- most defenders of democracy, the Nyong’o team pledged, citing the party’s strong belief in freedom, participation of the people, good governance, justice, fairness and equity.

Kisii Senator Richard Onyonka and Embakasi East MP Babu Owino are among leaders who have strongly opposed association with Ruto.

This group of leaders has kept off meetings attended by the President.

Many political leaders within ODM have, however, adopted a wait-and-see strategy.

Interestingly, some ODM leaders have become some of Ruto’s strongest cheerleaders adopting a see no evil, speak no evil attitude.

Sifuna told the Star the notorious ODM choirmasters have been warned against their new behaviour.

“They have been told in no uncertain terms – in my presence – to stop being sycophants.”

The new court jesters led by National Assembly Minority leader Junet Mohamed have been vocal in supporting the government’s position, abasing themselves even in clear instances of government excesses.

Some opposition MPs have gone as far as backing the high handedness of the state in cracking down on critics.

Last week in Bungoma, Junet appeared to justify the wave of abductions, warning the youth against mocking the President.

“You allow your children to put people in a coffin and when action is taken you are crying. Anybody in a coffin is dead. It’s only God who knows the day you will be put there; it is not you. You have no right to put people inside a casket. They should be taken to court,” Junet said.

Alego Usonga MP Sam Atandi was even more blunt, dismissing some of the abductions as stage-managed.

“I am also intelligent and have been analysing some of these abduction reports. I’ve come to realise that many of them are just total propaganda,” Atandi said at the height of the kidnappings.

Sifuna said the utterances of some ODM members were a growing concern in the party and a serious embarrassment.

“It is a big concern for the party’s credibility. There is a reputation that ODM has acquired over the past 20 years as the party that stands for the people. We cannot turn against that,” Sifuna told the Star.

“The concern is that the credibility and the reputation of the party are going down the drain. It is very embarrassing for me as the SG to see some members of ODM becoming bigger sycophants than the people in Kenya Kwanza.”

ODM executive director Oduor Ong’wen linked the confusion in the party to misconceptions about the party’s relationship with the government, even as he insisted ODM is intact in opposition.

“From both ends there had been a misconception. There are people who think we are in government but we are not,” he told the Star on phone.

“ODM is not in government and that is why you see what sounds a discordant voices.”

The confusion has created two camps – ODM in government and ODM in opposition - with fears the fault line may deepen with the exit of Raila.

The majority of MPs are in Junet’s corner, wasting no chance to flaunt their newfound status and hitting hard anyone critical of Ruto’s administration.

Homa Bay Town MP Peter Kaluma said he was happy the demonstrations were not widespread and that it was now the turn of their political opponents to protest against the government.

“The budget for tear gas, bullets and police can’t be reserved for our people each fiscal year. We lost many people last year, even as those now calling us to demonstrate celebrated the killing of economic terrorists,” he wrote on X.

ODM deputy leader Godfrey Osotsi was, however, quick to quell speculation about internal discord.

“Attending a function does not in way portray you as either pro-government or [in] opposition. For in- stance, the meeting in Bondo was largely cultural. Our attending it doesn’t mean we have joined the government.”

Despite the reassurances, pundits say underlying tensions persist.

It is feared the division could be further exacerbated by the absence of Raila should his bid for the chairperson of the African Union Commission succeed.

Political analyst Daniel Orogo told the Star the perceived split is a survival strategy for Raila and the party.

“Nobody should ever lie to you that ODM is in crisis. It is meant to be like that – the only way to en- sure it survives the uncertain political nature is to have vibrant splits on the two axes,” Orogo said on phone.

“It is deliberate for ODM to doublespeak; that is something they have mastered because of the uncertainty of working with government.”

Governance expert Javas Bigambo, while admitting existence of disquiet in the broad- based government, said the trouble in ODM may escalate should Raila win the February election.

The escalation may not be restrict- ed to the party but will flow to the strongholds of the veteran opposition leader.

“In the event Raila Odinga wins the AUC seat, what is apparent from my perspective is a blind con- test to inherit Raila’s power and supremacy in Luo Nyanza, ODM and in the country,” he said.

“There may be no huge implosion in ODM but there may be fragmentation of the ODM sup- port bases. Western, Coast and Luo Nyanza may want to have a leader emerging from ODM to show direction.”

According to the analyst, the dis- content within ODM should worry the government given the critical role the opposition outfit should play in the future of the regime.

“All these noises within ODM should invite concern that the broad-based government is not particularly cohesive and there are pockets of discontent and dissent,” Bigambo said.