Raila Odinga with Chadian President Mahamat Idriss Deby in Ndjamena /EMMANUEL WANSON
Raila’s has failed to become Kenya’s president five times, but now he stands a chance to walk head held high if he wins the coveted African Union Commission chairperson seat in a little more than a week.
Kenya for the second time has a candidate for the AUC chairperson race after then-President Uhuru Kenyatta nominated former Cabinet Secretary Amina Mohamed for the job in 2016.
Africa’s heads of state are scheduled to pick Moussa Faki Mahamat’s successor during the 38th Ordinary Session of the Assembly of the Heads of State and Government. It will be held in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, on February 15 and 16.
Raila will face Djibouti’s Foreign Affairs Minister Mahamoud Ali Youssouf and Madagascar’s former Foreign Affairs Minister Richard Randriamandrato. Pundits say Raila’s biggest threat is the Djiboutian candidate, who is believed to have the backing of Muslim and Arab countries.
Raila’s campaign secretariat, co-chaired by former ambassador to the United States Elkanah Odembo and Foreign Affairs Principal Secretary Korir Sing’oei, has estimated his bid has the support of at least 28 nations.
Going by the figure, Raila would only need to win over a few more nations to secure a first-round victory. The chairperson is elected by member states, excluding countries under military rule. Out of 55 African countries, 48 AU states are eligible to vote.
A candidate must garner a two-thirds majority of the votes cast.
The new AU chairman will be faced with the enormous task of tackling Africa’s high poverty levels, unemployment, run-away debt, insecurity, illiteracy, poor health services, and energy needs, among other issues.
A staunch advocate for Pan-Africanism, Raila has outlined an ambitious vision for the continent. He has pledged to accelerate Africa’s development and enhance the continent’s self-reliance, unity, and sustainability.
He envisions an Africa that rises above its historical challenges, realising its full potential through a new era of progressive leadership. Political analyst Fred Sasia believes the stakes of this election stretch beyond the AU, as the poll also will be a defining moment in Kenya’s politics.
“For ODM, Raila’s victory would not only be a triumph for him personally but also a major win for the party. The hopes of ODM’s loyalists hinge on this election, as Raila’s success could ensure the party’s continued relevance and influence in the government,” Sasia said.
The analyst also said President William Ruto and his allies are acutely aware that Raila’s ascent to the AU chairmanship could consolidate his support in Luo Nyanza and Western Kenya in the 2027 general elections.
“These regions have long been Raila’s stronghold, and a win for him could enable Ruto to inherit that critical voter base,” he added.
Ruto has pulled out all the stops and mobilised his administration to campaign for Raila continent-wide. Ruto is thought to have a personal reason to vouch for Raila, his partner in the broad-based government.
A Raila chairmanship would be a blessing for him, as it would rule out the former Prime Minister as a candidate in the presidential elections. ODM has maintained, however, that it would field its own candidates for all elective positions, including president. Whether he wins or not, Raila has asked his Nyanza political bedrock to remain united.
He said he is well aware that his journey to the AUC will either be successful or unsuccessful, but he has promised to remain active in Kenyan affairs. ODM secretary general and Senator Edwin Sifuna expressed confidence Raila will win.
“We are sure he is going to win the seat. Even as we strategise as a party, we have that in mind,” he told the Star.
Uriri MP Mark Nyamita is also confident of a Raila victory and said ODM will not be weakened by Raila’s absence.
“We are praying our leader’s bid for AUC chair is successful during next week’s elections. I will be in Addis Ababa to witness this historic occasion,” he said.
Political commentator Daniel Orogo said a win for Raila would means he has completed his exit from active politics in Kenya, transitioning to full responsibility at the AUC secretariat.
“His new position bars him from taking an active role in the domestic politics of Kenya. But realistically, Raila could pull strings from Addis Ababa when it comes to the party leadership and positions of ODM,” he said.
Orogo is quick to point out that even before his election and prospective ascent to leadership, cracks have emerged within the party over succession and over which position should be taken regarding supporting the government or not.
“Raila’s win will cement the assurance that indeed William Ruto rigorously supported his AUC bid and, of course, he might lend further support by endorsing the party’s decision to fully back re-election in 2027,” he added.
Orogo said Raila’s win would eliminate a potential rival and hurdle for Ruto, which might arise in his reelection bid. Former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua said the President is praying hard that Raila emerges victorious in the AU election.
Speaking during a media interview on January 27, Gachagua said Ruto plans to inherit Raila’s voting bloc, stating President has lost four million votes in the Mt Kenya region following the DP’s impeachment in October.
The region was and is infuriated that one of their own was expelled from government. Gachagua argued, however, that even with Raila’s backing, Ruto would still lose the 2027 presidential race; he said regions that voted for the Azimio leader, such as Ukambani, Kisii and Western, would support another candidate.
And speaking during a television interview, Belgut MP Nelson Koech said some ODM legislators in Parliament are secretly wishing Raila fails in his AU bid. He said these MPs have been hanging on the veteran opposition leader’s coattails and his success at the AU spells doom for them.
“There are people who have become collateral beneficiaries of Raila’s candidature in every election. Some politicians in Luo Nyanza would never want to hear of Raila leaving the political scene because they have benefited their entire lives, being elected only as a result of being associated with Raila Odinga,” Koech said.
Sasia said Ruto may need to rely on Raila’s strongholds to make up for lost votes, as Mt Kenya’s support already is crumbling under the current administration after the DP’s impeachment.
“However, the situation becomes murkier if Raila fails to clinch the AU position. In such a scenario, we might see the return of Raila to active opposition politics, capitalising on the growing popular discontent to challenge Ruto in 2027,” he said.
Sasia said that as a masterful kingmaker, Raila’s endorsement of a candidate could turn the tide of Kenyan politics.
“This prospect sends a chill through the government, with many hoping that a win for Raila at the AU could keep him distracted from local affairs,” he said.
Successful or not, Raila has maintained ODM will be remain viable and outlive his tenure as the party leader.
