The current jostling in major political parties in Kenya, namely the United Democratic Alliance (UDA) and Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) can be surmised as succession gymnastics brought about by uncertainty in transition arrangements, a result of the vagueness of their constitutions.
Such opacity creates confusion and the party leaders have tried to use their discretions to manoeuvre and shape the successions. Fallout, as witnessed in the past, has been a recurring theme characterising their growth and destruction.
Both UDA and ODM have called their long-overdue internal elections. But they have been forced to postpone them a number of times in parts of the country due to major differences that have the potential to tear apart the two parties.
ODM postponed the whole exercise while UDA's most recent spectacle was the vicious competition in Nairobi that saw the region’s elections postponed.
ODM on its part will be grappling with the envisaged absence of Raila Odinga, who has had a tight grip on the party ever since it was formed and now has to unshackle it as he garners for the AU commission posting.
Raila's recent moves point to a conflicted leader who wants to carry on both the local and African regional mandates, oblivious to the obvious danger he puts himself in dabbling in such divisive politics.
Contrary to his stated stance, which could be to consolidate the party ahead of his departure if his bid succeeds, Raila's involvement with the AU at the top echelon will remove him from local politics, thus the fear of the party's collapse.
UDA, the largest party in the ruling coalition, already has camps of the two top leaders. Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua is trying to position himself for a better fighting chance in future but President William Ruto, in his first term, cannot allow it as that leaves his second term quest at the whims of his deputy.
The DP is already feeling the heat knowing that he may not be Ruto’s automatic running mate for the second term. Already he is on a charm offensive to consolidate his support but his biggest headache remains having Mt. Kenya, which has the largest vote basket, in his corner.
Another problem facing the DP is that he might not have figured out who exactly his political enemies are. He seems to be fighting every decoy and smokescreen set upon him, which could be diversionary.
In all, the coalitions and parties, which in Kenya are mere special election vehicles, are yet again treading the same old path of self-destruction ahead of the next polls as new coalitions get underway.
Economic and political analyst