MABINDA: The Mt Kenya vote factor and why 2027 will be a close election

Impeached Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua has said President William Ruto came holding the Bible and deceived Mt Kenya that he was going to put the region's interests first.

Since the advent of multi-party democracy in 1992, the region had never voted for an outside candidate, other than 2022.

This is primarily because they always had a strong candidate and secondly because they had the numbers.

In 1992, President Daniel Moi beat Mt Kenya only because they were divided. Kenneth Matiba and Mwai Kibaki vied in that election, with Matiba emerging second and Kibaki emerging third.

In 2002, against all expectations, Moi endorsed Uhuru Kenyatta and sensing Kikuyus would back Uhuru, the opposition rallied around Mwai Kibaki. Of course, it took the Raila Odinga, "Kibaki Tosha" declaration to seal the deal. 

The 2002 election was like no other. Veteran commentator Prof. Makau Mutua says the poll and the 1963 one were the only free and fair election Kenya has had. In that election, the spirit of the country was rejuvenated.

The Conservative weekly newsmagazine, the Economist, described Kenya as a beacon of hope in Africa. Citizens openly arrested corrupt police officers in a newfound fight against corruption.

Cabinet Minister Karisa Maitha, now deceased, openly swept the streets to show a new spirit of servant leadership. But soon after, that newfound spirit collapsed as Kibaki surrounded himself with the so-called "Mt Kenya Mafia", as Raila openly cried that the LDP wing of NARC got the short end of the stick.

Fast forward to 2013 and Ruto becomes the kingmaker. He could have backed Raila but then wants to chart his own political direction and so figures out that backing Uhuru Kenyatta would be the fastest route to the presidency. An alliance is formed between the Kikuyus and the Kalenjins. The agreement is that we will have a Kikuyu President and a Kalenjin Deputy President, alternated with a Kalenjin President and a Kikuyu Deputy President.

But then in March 2018, intelligence reports show after the 2017 elections, Nyanza region was stating at a rebellion, a secession so to speak, and Uhuru has a handshake with Raila, inviting him to work with him. They form the Building Bridges Initiative, BBI, which is about “inclusivity” in the country.

That would culminate in calling for the reinstatement of the Prime Minister position, but then the courts threw out the proposal. As expected, Uhuru backs Raila for the Presidency but then Mt Kenya grassroots openly rebels. Never mind that many Kikuyu elites saw a path towards working with Raila, which would have been safer.

Ruto ends up winning the 2022 election, a hotly contested election that Raila loses, for the fifth time.

The question is, has Ruto now lost Mt Kenya support? Will the mountain ever back an outsider again after their son, Rigathi Gachagua, was thrown out of government?

The son of Mau Mau says Kithure Kindiki comes from the small Tharaka tribe that cannot speak for the Kikuyus. This is even as Moses Kuria says the Kikuyus now don't owe any debt to their Embu and Meru cousins since one of their own, Kithure Kindiki, is now Deputy President.

Granted, Mt Kenya is the entrepreneurial capital of Kenya. They have huge businesses and are not doing well because of Ruto’s over taxation policy. There is no country that has taxed its way to prosperity, the key is to increase the tax base, not the tax rate. 

Additionally, 2027 will be a transition election. The Gen Z vote will be a splintered vote. Some will vote for tribes, others will vote for issues. Gachagua could well be on the ballot, if he's cleared to run by the courts. Ruto will retain his vote among non-Kikuyus, but remember Kikuyus gave him nearly half of his votes. That's a tall order to plug that gap.

If Raila decides to vie, then his votes are locked in, never mind the Gen Zs who say he betrayed them.

Ruto is staring at a one term presidency, never mind what his inner sanctum says that there has never been a one term President in Kenya and Ruto will not be the first.

Rigathi Gachagua says Ruto confided in him that he will work his way into a second term, even if he loses the Mt Kenya vote. The 2027 election is a blank canvas. It could be painted anyhow. 

Political commentator X @cmabinda.