There remains one more step for the finalisation of the implementation of the 2010 Nile Basin Cooperative Framework Agreement (CFA) to come into force.
Either Kenya or South Sudan needs to ratify and deposit their instruments with the African Union to pave way for the transformation of the Nile Basin Initiative into a full commission with legal mandate to facilitate cooperation in the region.
The bold decision by the Republic of South Sudan’s Transitional National Legislative Assembly (TNLA) to unanimously vote to accede to the Nile Basin Cooperative Framework Agreement (CFA) signed in 2010, joining Ethiopia, Rwanda, Tanzania, Uganda and Burundi, has sent excitement among the region's water policy makers that with the reluctance by Kenya to ratify the document, which has been holding the process, South Sudan might be the saviour, which will be very humiliating to Kenya.
The move by South Sudan Parliament now leaves the President to assent to the document within 21 days, or it becomes law automatically, which now means if either Kenya or South Sudan deposits their instruments with the African Union, the commission becomes a functional legal entity by October 6, 2024.
There is need for the process to take a mediation root so that the matter is solved amicably for the benefit of the citizens in the Nile Basin engulfed in poverty even as studies show the place has huge potential in terms of social and economic transformation.
What happens when one set of countries decides to move ahead with the implementation of agreement should Kenya or South Sudan move to the next level - which DRC, Sudan and Egypt remain adamant not to sign? Huge potential for regional conflict which might destabilise the region.
Water is a transboundary, trans-sectoral and transgenerational resource that ensures sustainability and the political and technical goodwill is vital in securing a water secure world considering that water is a powerful peace building tool.
From the countries that have signed and ratified the document, it took the personal involvement and leadership at the level of the presidents themselves to have them move and in Kenya-while national processes have reached that level - it might just require that bold move. I am sure, away from the tea export issues, the timing might also see the AU elections, where Kenya is pushing for Raila Odinga’s candidature.
Whatever bargaining is employed, it will be interesting to see if Egypt will vote for Raila. Not interesting is that the Lake Victoria Basin has one of the highest poverty rates in Kenya, and even with investments in the blue economy, much effort has so far been directed at the Coast.
It requires mediation to solve any outstanding issues and proper regional negotiation to solve this matter at whatever cost, given that transformation of the NBI to a full commission will have huge impact on the access, control and use of the resources in the basin as shared fairly by the 10 countries, crossborder conflicts over the Nile waters, increasing water and energy scarcity, rampant food insecurity and the adverse effects of climate change will frustrate sustainable use of the resources.
The CFA notes that once established, the Commission shall serve as an institutional framework for cooperation among Nile Basin states in the use, development, protection, conservation and management of the Nile River Basin and its waters. The Nile River Basin Commission shall maintain regular contact and shall cooperate closely with any sub-basin organisation or arrangement. Each Nile Basin state shall establish or designate a National Nile Focal Point Institution and notify the Commission thereof. The Agreement has dispute settlement provisions.
Egypt, DRC and Sudan remain committed to the process and have not signed the CFA so far while Kenya, which already signed, is yet to accede, which stands at the commencement of the regional treaty.
The Nile River waters remain a lifesaving tool for Egypt, which has employed all tactics -political, threats and economic - to ensure the old arrangements remain. By way of threatening Sudan and South Sudan with war and Kenya using the trade sanctions- Egypt consumes a lot of Kenyan tea- and Kenya might be fearing losing tea export- thus moving slowly to ratify the instrument.
At the speed South Sudan is moving, which might see it deposit its instruments with the AU ahead of Kenya, Kenya as a big boy in the region will become a laughingstock in the region, for being reluctant to ratify the CFA, even while talking big about the opportunities in the region.
The genesis of the CFA lies in the concerns raised by some countries in the region about the fair distribution and access to the water resources in the Basin, which over the years have been based on the Nile Water Treaty of 1929, giving Egypt the right to veto upstream access and utilisation of the Nile waters.
Only a few days ago during the Council of Ministers (NELCOM) meeting in Kampala, Uganda, Kenya represented by the Permanent Secretary for Foreign Affairs showed its full support to enhancing institutional arrangements that would make the economic and social transformation of the region immediate.
The Writer is the Co-Founder of Sango Information Hub