I am in my village this week.
As a career student of politics and sociocultural patterns, I have had my ears on the ground, trying to pick up what my people are saying, basically about anything and everything under the sun.
Which reminds me that the December sun here is unforgivingly hot, so Nairobi-based sons and daughters of the land returning for the festive season would do well to carry sunscreen and hydrate regularly.
You will encounter both good news and bad news, when you arrive in my homeland.
The good news is that my home city, Kisumu, is still touted as the cleanest major urban centre in the country.
There is a semblance of order and intentionality in the management of affairs here, thanks largely to the focused approach taken by Governor Anyang’ Nyong’o.
The consensus is that Nyong’o has been good for Kisumu county.
Down with term limits! But beyond the feel-good factor around this devolved unit, there lurks fear and anxiety over rising insecurity in the city.
Residents speak in whispers about an emerging crime trend of muggings, breakins and attacks on an unprecedented scale.
The town, they say, is under siege from criminal elements, who, unlike the past variety, exercise no patience and “class”, euphemism for robbing and fleeing, instead of harming their victims.
Admittedly, the rise in numbers of the young, jobless demographic has played its role. Away from the grim statistics, the other big conversation in my neighbourhood revolves around the prospects of the region’s favourite son, Raila Odinga, in his quest to become the next African Union Commission chairman.
There was a debate in Addis Ababa last Friday, dubbed Mjadala Afrika, in which Raila faced off with his two younger opponents, Mahmoud Ali Youssouf of Djibouti and Richard Randriamandrato of Madagascar.
My homeland agrees, in predictable unanimity, that its favourite son won the debate hands down.
We won’t listen to any contrary opinion. However, on social media and newspaper headlines, we have been told that the debate divided Kenyans along political lines.
Those from regions that have consistently voted to “send Raila to Bondo”, over the years, are fiercely rooting for the candidate from Djibouti, in one last, almost vain, attempt to confine the former Azimio leader to his Opoda farm.
Well, they do not hold a vote at the AU, but you can’t fault them for trying. In other words, the AUC contest, in the eyes of Kenya’s tribally and politically divided society, is just one of those us-versus-them moment.
The other issue on which you will find unanimity here is that life is much more difficult now than it has been in recent history.
The SHIFSHA drama in hospitals continues, and healthcare has practically gone to the dogs.
Taxes are shrinking the remittances from urban-based sons and daughters of the village back to vulnerable relatives in their villages.
The air of despondency abounds. In a not-so-scientific poll, one in two people I speak to has a pessimistic outlook over the next few years, seeing no chance that things will improve.
And yet, overall, the overriding feeling in my homeland is that no matter what faults one may attribute to his government, President William Ruto has shown rare goodwill towards the community.
It is not just that some of our people here have “seen” certain titles for the first time, namely Chief of Defence Forces, Attorney General and Treasury CS, but the manner in which the President has gone out of his way in helping Raila in his AUC quest warms the hearts of residents here.
It helps that there is another favourite son of this region, Interior PS Raymond Omollo, who, everyone acknowledges, is doing a lot to improve the welfare and living conditions of the people here.
Quite genuinely and meticulously, while completely self-effacing, the PS has quietly built the reputation here as a hard worker and one who reaches out to lift others.
I have heard youths, widows and the vulnerable sing his praises, and obviously, they have good reasons to do so. My people “eat” politics like a daily snack. So, there are very few things on the ground that you can analyse without giving a political equation.
One of those is the rather compelling question of what the future holds in the twilight of Raila’s political future.
But that would be jumping the gun, to put it plainly. The more immediate question is how to respond, in terms of national political dynamics, should Raila ultimately win the AUC seat, in just a matter of weeks, with such massive and unequivocal support from President Ruto.
Should that happen, parallels will promptly be drawn between former President Uhuru Kenyatta promising Raila the presidency and failing to deliver in 2022, with Ruto going all out to position the ODM chief as Kenya’s candidate for the AUC chairmanship seat, campaigning across the continent for him and delivering.
In Kenya’s political parlance, there is this “returning the hand” philosophy of paying political debts, and this one will be very fresh by the time 2027 comes along.
Would my people then be persuaded to return this hand? In my view, if Raila wins the continental contest, and the Ruto government’s own service delivery and performance improve, there is almost no question that my people would, with Raila’s nod, “return the hand” in 2027.
For Ruto, the task lies in stemming the rising national anger over taxes, economic wellbeing of the people and the belief that tender merchants have taken over government and are running transactional rings around it.
After all, it would need more than just the Luo community to pull off a victory in his desire for a second term.
As I write this under a massive Otho tree in my village homestead, the birds sing incessantly, as if portending a wonderful Christmas ahead.
They are oblivious to the delicate periods we have had to navigate as a country to get this far this year. However, as I try to identify each bird species from its unique song, I am reminded of the serenity and unpretentious nature of village life.
This is something that urban dwellers would never comprehend. Here we eat together and enjoy the communion of kinship and shared ties.
The food is largely organic, right out of our tiny shambas. Even the Christmas chicken will be the traditional, free range variety! Among my people, everyone wants to know, every morning, what the “the newspapers are saying”.
It is a legacy of being some of the biggest consumers of news and politics over the years. Now, since I write in one of them, when I am down here, I am “the newspapers”.
So, when I am asked what the newspapers think are Raila’s chances in the AUC elections, or whether the 2025 will be better than 2024, I tilt my head, pretending to be in deep thought, before evading all such questions with a quick change of topic.
Whatever your station in life, allow me to wish you a wonderful festive season and abundant blessings in the New Year.
The singing of the
birds in my village suggests that we
can still hold onto hope. Let’s look
forward to doing this again in 2025.
