Western Kenya could shift tectonically and its vote bloc could shift radically should Deputy President William Ruto strike a deal with ANC leader Musalia Mudavadi.
The August 9 presidential election is shaping up into a two-horse race between ODM boss Raila Odinga and Ruto. Analysts say prospects for Third Force are facing away.
Ruto, one of the dominant presidential election contenders, has sustained a charm offensive of Musalia’s Western turf in a calculated strategy to court the ANC boss ahead of the polls.
Ruto’s allies say if they manage to ink a deal with Musalia, they will be able to lock Raila out of Western Kenya and bolster the DP’s chances of succeeding President Uhuru Kenyatta.
“The Mulembe nation is drifting towards Ruto and that is why we have been urging our brother Musalia to join forces with us so we can form the next government,” Kimilili MP Didmus Barasa said.
Barasa, a Ruto ally, said the region will vote overwhelmingly for Ruto in the next presidential poll, saying a possible coalition with Musalia would enhance that.
For the last one month, Ruto has made back-to-back extensive campaigns in the region and has made at least four visits to Bungoma, Busia, Vihiga and Kakamega counties as he eyes Musalia.
Last week, the DP exposed the negotiations between his camp and Musalia when he made a surprise appearance at a high-profile football tournament organised by a Musalia ally.
United Democratic Alliance secretary-general Veronica Maina confirmed the DP’s camp has formally written to Musalia and his Ford Kenya counterpart Moses Wetang'ula for coalition talks ahead of the polls.
Musalia denied any overtures from Ruto.
“I have been in the media lately, more for what I have not said than what I have said. If I have not met any person, I cannot shy away from saying it. I will not hide it,” he added.
Although Musalia has denied he is in talks with Ruto over a possible political pact, indications are clear that the two are warming up to each other in what would shake up the region’s political matrix.
For instance, some of Musalia’s allies, including Kakamega Senator Cleophas Malala, has asked Musalia to quickly decide on his August 9 political plans signalling he should choose Ruto as a viable option.
Most of Musalia’s allies have also toned down their initial fervent attacks on the country’s second in command, pointing to a thawing of relations.
Musalia is said to be determined to go to any length to lock out ODM boss Raila Odinga from Western over “his political conmanship and politics of betrayal".
Musalia was Raila’s running mate in the 2007 presidential election when ODM vanquished President Mwai Kibaki’s re-election and forced the country into a grand coalition government.
Musalia later served as Raila’s head of presidential campaigns in the 2017 general election, which nearly made Uhuru a one-term president.
With the DP determined to win over Musalia and Wetang'ula to bolster his chances of victory, some politicians agree the move would significantly tilt the scales against Raila.
Tongaren MP Eseli Simiyu on Thursday warned that Raila could suffer a major political blow if Ruto manages to hammer out a deal with Musalia, seven months to the August 9 general election.
“Any political deal between Musalia and Ruto, which we know is in the cards and is only a matter of time before it is confirmed, would spoil the party for Raila in the region,” Simiyu told The Star.
Raila has for decades controlled the Western region vote bloc despite Musalia’s presence but fears of political fatigue and alarms about possible betrayal could complicate his chances of consolidating his support.
Simiyu, who is the new secretary-general for the Democratic Alliance party allied to Raila’s Azimio La Umoja Movement, said Musalia is determined to crush Raila’s fortunes in the region and "teach him a lesson.”
“Musalia and Wetang'ula are now joined at the hip in their plans to divide the Western Kenya vote bloc to Ruto’s advantage,” the politician said.
Simiyu said the new DAP party which is "taking Western Kenya by storm and spreading like a wildfire" will insulate Raila from any political depletion.
According to the 2017 IEBC data, the four Western Kenya counties of Bungoma, Kakamega, Busia and Vihiga have a combined vote bloc of 1.9 million.
This excludes the largely cosmopolitan Trans Nzoia county, which has 339,622 registered voters. The data shows that Kakamega has 743,736 registered voters, Bungoma 559,850, Busia 351,048 and Vihiga 272,409.
Raila has controlled the Western Kenya region in the last three general elections, with voters from the key counties voting for him almost to a man/woman.
The ODM boss was able to crush Musalia in his own backyard in the 2013 polls, when Raila ran for President for the third time. This exposed the ANC boss's tenuous grip on the region.
On Thursday, Lugari MP Ayub Savula, a former Musalia ally, told the Star Raila’s Azimio La Umoja will sweep Western Kenya votes.
“The ground is completely in Azimio and that is why I also decided to abandon the One Kenya Alliance and join Raila so that I can secure my ambitions to be Kakamega governor,” Savula said.
The ANC legislator who now backs Raila for president warned Musalia he risks remaining in political oblivion if he decided to work with Ruto.
“You can’t sell Ruto in Western Kenya, I have always asked Musalia to work with Raila but he has told me to go slow,” Savul added.
Despite putting on a brave face, politicians from Western Kenya led by powerful Cotu secretary general Francis Atwoli installed Kakamega governor Wycliffe Oparanya as the Luyha kingpin.
The move was seen as part of a plan to whittle down his influence as the Luyha nation spokesman and give Raila a head start in the region.
Oparanya is a key Raila point man and ODM deputy party leader.
Malala said Musalia is the Luyha community’s political leader and will influence how the community will vote in August.
"Musalia remains the man to watch. This is the season of political transfers. We have given Musalia a free hand to choose his next partners,” Malala said.
The MP had last week asked Ruto to consider giving the Luyha nation a "bigger seat", signalling his bid for a Ruto-Musalia deal.
Fearing that Musalia’s stature as the region’s political kingpin could be eroded, his allies are pushing him to join Raila’s Azimio La Umoja, a movement tipped to shape the country’s political landscape.
Khwisero MP Christopher Aseka said Musalia’s political future would be brighter should he join forces with Raila.
The Musalia ally said the ANC party boss stands a chance of inheriting Raila's support base in the future if he joins the Azimio La Umoja.
“When I look at the prevailing political conditions and environment, I would advise my party leader to support Raila Odinga,” Aseka told the Star on the phone.
“If he joins Deputy President William Ruto, he will have another 10 years of oblivion. He might not add anything significant to his side. He may get government positions but nothing political,” he added.
There are reports that should Musalia agree to work with Ruto, then Raila will use the DAP party linked to Defence Cabinet Secretary Eugene Wamalwa to penetrate Western Kenya.
Raila is also banking on Oparanya and Atwoli to battle the region out of Musalia's hold as the next presidential election takes shape.
ANC announced it will hold its National Delegates Congress on January 23 at the Bomas of Kenya.
A notice by secretary-general Simon Kamau said the meeting will nominate Musalia as its presidential candidate.
The meeting is seen as a session to empower Musalia to seal a deal with either Ruto or Raila ahead of the polls.
(Edited by V. Graham)