In January 2017, then Nyeri Governor Wahome Gakuru (now deceased), wrote an op-ed in one of the local dailies challenging a scholar-turned-political activist to cease using voodoo economics in analysing Vision 2030 flagship projects.
The scholar had taken to demeaning major economic enabler projects such as the Thika Super Highway, Kisumu Airport, SGR, and Lapsset as of “marginal” economic value and waste of public resources.
It is this view that Dr Gakuru sneered at as voodoo economic analysis since it tended to distort the reality about the impact of mega projects in stimulating economic transformation, triggering multiple multiplier effects and benefits, creating jobs and deepening infrastructural connectivity.
However, it has since occurred to many observers that voodoo economists are not yet out of business, going to by the manner one of the political formations has gone about packaging what it calls bottom up economic model.
As far as economic models go, the key defining feature of the bottom up approach is absence of clarity and granularity, no discernible specific details.
Economic planning and modeling is no voodoo but a clear science-based on data on known variables — resource base, capital, a nation’s natural wealth endowments in minerals, geographical location, good climate, labour and technology etc.
A model will, therefore, show what policy the planner intends to implement to make these factors of production produce desired and measurable economic goods and services to meet people’s needs and aspirations.
But then voodoo sloganeering is easier to shout on the podium to work up emotions than detailed thinking and planning.
One example would suffice.
When the bottoms up brigade toured Nyeri last week, one would have expected to hear something to do with the core problem ailing the coffee sector, the major export produce the county is globally known for.
Keen observers will notice the statement on how to stimulate coffee revival in Nyeri gave prominence to fertiliser and agrochemicals, all to be imported from abroad and with huge potential for kickbacks by importers and tender holders.
However, experts and economic planners know the priority problem about dismal performance of coffee sector in Nyeri and other 13 coffee counties is not fertiliser and agrochemicals, but abandonment of the crop by farmers due to poor returns and aging inefficient labour in the last 30 years, aided by archaic management systems at the cooperative level.
Any serious, genuine and helpful solution must begin with a credit facility to finance revival of the abandoned crop and transition to more productive breed varieties to raise production volumes to meet market demand, and at viable volumes to cover commercial overheads.
This farmer-centric approach puts the farmer first, not the politically connected importer.
The requisite credit facilities to leverage ICT solutions at producer co-operative management to enhance efficiency, revive abandoned farms and transition from old and marginally viable breed varieties to hybrid high yield varieties would mean putting money into the pockets of the farmers first.
Fertiliser and chemical importation come into the picture at third or fourth layer in the order of priority actions.
But as all voodoo economics go, the intention is not to help the farmer increase productivity and grow economy, but to bamboozle and create a pretext for fertiliser and agrochemical importation commercial schemes in the name of agriculture policy should they rise to power.
It is also significant to remember that some top players in the bottom up group are veterans in imports of fertiliser and grains, and their names keep popping up in every controversial procurement schemes by the National Cereals and Produce Board for the last 20 years.
This may partly explain the absence of granularity and specifics on policy actions and their intended objectives beyond sloganeering only meant to raise emotions and excite on the political trail.
Economic models have worked and failed in equal measure the world over. Why?
The success or failure of a model solely depends on effective planning through policy realignments, innovation and effective implementation.
The economy has taken a major hit due to the disruptions caused by Covid-19. What is needed, therefore, is a sure strategy that will resonate with the reality not only in Kenya but also around the globe.
The biggest driver of economic growth in the world today is innovation. Business models have had to readjust through innovation to remain relevant and profitable. The bottom up economic model as proposed by Deputy President William Ruto’s camp is lacking in innovative strategies, skills enhancement and capacity building.
The belief that simply putting money to the grassroots without enhancing the skills of the beneficiaries to enhance operational, management and innovative capacity will work is fully misadvised. The model as proposed by them lacks a clear strategy to on how to adapt the existing small-scale business models to the emerging trends in technology that will make the businesses more effective and efficient to maximize profits for the traders.
It has since become apparent that no one among the rank and file of the bottom up brigade, can give two of three sentences on what it is, or how it looks like, or what the top three priorities are.
Since announcing the model to Kenyans, DP Ruto’s strong lieutenants have had a hard time explaining the model themselves. This shows the lack of research, modelling and test-running of the model with the economic environment of Kenya to determine its suitability.
Given that Kenya’s economy, just like that of the rest of the world, is recovering from the ravages of the pandemic, an unsure testing of an economic model by people who do not understand it properly is not the best thing for the country. What Kenya needs is a well-thought out plan at improving the economic performance through improving on the available systems.
As late Gakuru would say, there is yet no evidence presented in a document or a speech anywhere to show the shape, form and colour of the bottom-up model anywhere beyond sloganeering at rallies and press talk shops.
Kenyan voters must be warned bottom-up may turn out to be voodoo economics, after all.
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