Deputy President William Ruto has seemingly revised his campaign strategy following an onslaught by President Uhuru Kenyatta against his inroads in Mt Kenya.
The President’s direct involvement in ODM leader and Azimio presidential flagbearer Raila Odinga’s campaign to secure a slice of the region’s vote bloc have apparently unsettled the DP.
This has forced him to review his campaign tactics and make frequent visits to the mountain to firm up his grip on the vote-rich region — key in his bid to succeed his boss.
Political observers say the DP appears to be aware that his support is declining as Raila's rises, according to polls. He has to be there consistently to ensure he remains in the minds of the voters.
Not long ago, his influence in most of the region was said to be pervasive. It's far too soon to write him off.
“What the President is doing has clearly rattled Ruto. We have seen more people from the region join Azimio since the President declared his support [for Raila],” analyst Mark Bichachi said.
“And for Ruto to win, he has to get 100 per cent of the mountain,” Bichachi added in explaining Ruto’s many trips to Uhuru's backyard.
Nairobi-based political risk analyst Dismus Mokua said the DP knows too well the President’s ability to tilt the scales against him in the Mt Kenya region.
“You cannot ignore President Kenyatta because he has the (political) infrastructure that delivered twice (in 2013 and 2017),” he said.
Mokua said Ruto has built his own political infrastructure after he fell out with his boss and thus must visit the area many times to ensure it works for him on August 9.
“He created his own [structure] and that is why he is there [virtually] every single day. It is to ensure his infrastructure delivers,” he said
Uhuru has launched a major offensive against the DP in Central Kenya, with back-to-back meetings with residents and leaders from the region.
Last week, the President met hundreds of Kikuyu elders at State House, where he reportedly asked them to reject the DP for allegedly plotting his removal.
This came barely a month after he met more than 5,000 youths from the region and persuaded them to preach the Raila gospel on the mountain.
The latest opinion polls show that while Ruto commands a lead in the region, his popularity had been decreasing as Raila’s increases, explaining the effect of the President’s personal involvement in the ODM leader's campaigns.
There have been concerns that the head of state has been reluctant to openly campaign alongside Raila in the region.
Sources, however, say the handshake duo plans to storm and campaign in the region, which controls nearly a third of the total registered voters.
Ruto has been to the Central region at least 20 times since the President hosted the last meeting at the Sagana State Lodge, popularly referred as Sagana III on February 23.
In addition, the DP has hosted more than 10 delegations, including grassroots and opinion leaders, from the region at his official residence in Karen, Nairobi, in less than two months.
This is the highest number of political visits Ruto has made to a region over the period.
The DP’s allies from the region, however, defended his forays in Mt Kenya, even as they disputed the notion that his popularity is fragile and waning.
“He is just trying to consolidate his base. This is where he has the most support after the Rift Valley. He is essentially our candidate,” nominated Senator Isaac Mwaura said.
The legislator said President Kenyatta’s attempt to influence the region against the DP will not sway the ground as the voters have already made up their mind on their presidential candidate.
“His (the President’s) influence in Central Kenya is at an all-time low. That is why most politicians have abandoned the Jubilee Party,” Mwaura said.
Mathira MP Rigathi Gachagua, who is Ruto’s key pointman in the region, said the President and his Jubilee Party are not a threat to DP’s popularity in the area.
“Jubilee is not an issue in this election. It is between UDA and ODM. Jubilee is a shell, a pale shadow of its former self. It was destroyed by the handshake and cannot be redeemed,” he said.
Jubilee secretary general MP Jeremiah Kioni, a close ally of the President, however, said Jubilee’s revival has threatened the DP’s ‘perceived’ strength in the area.
“Unlike before, where he was roving around without anyone offering a counter-narrative of whatever he was saying, that now is being counterchecked against the facts we have given the people, who are now able to assess,” he said.
“People are coming to realise that he has not been truthful. That is making him agitated and you can see the level of anger he is showing,” the Ndaragwa MP added.
Interestingly, Ruto has not campaigned in his Kalenjin nation political stronghold over the period. He does not want to be identified as the Kalenjin candidate and surrounds himself with people from other regions.
Some Kalenjins feel slighted and said the DP should not take them for granted.
The last time he visited his backyard was on January 8, when he held a mammoth rally in Eldoret town, where his community backed to run for the country’s top job.
Thereafter, the UDA party leader traversed Nandi, Kericho, Bomet and Baringo in a three-day campaign blitz to ‘seek’ the blessings to succeed President Kenyatta in the August 9 polls.
Ruto enjoys a massive following in the Kalenjin nation and it is almost a given that he will bag the majority of the votes – partly justifying his not-so-frequent visits to the region.
The DP has also not set foot in most Northeastern counties for a long time.
Soon after the President hosted the Sagana III meeting and for the first time publicly told his backyard to shun the DP for Raila, Ruto launched a massive campaign in Nyeri.
He was hosted by Gachagua in Mathira, where he and his allies fiercely criticised the President.
On April 2, the DP hosted a delegation from Kirinyaga and brokered a deal among senatorial aspirants in the county.
On March 25, he traversed Naivasha, which though it is in the Rift Valley, is dominated by the Kikuyu-speaking people.
This came just two days after he met 50 UDA aspirants from Laikipia county. On March 20, they traversed Murang’a county.
The DP and his Kenya Kwanza Alliance stormed Nakuru constituency on March 19 where they rallied the residents to vote for them.
On March 18, they were back to the President’s Kiambu backyard, where they campaigned at Mutomo, Kiamwangi, Kiganjo and Munyuini areas.
The DP met aspirants from Embu on March 17, and campaigned in Laikipia county in a charm offensive to scuttle Raila’s inroads. Governor Ndiritu Muriithi is Raila's head of campaigns.
On March 14, he met more than 40 MCAs from Meru and Tharaka Nithi counties, who had decamped from Jubilee to join UDA.
Ruto, ANC leader Musalia Mudavadi and Ford Kenya chief Moses Wetang'ula also campaigned in Tharaka Nithi and Meru counties on March 12 and 13.
“In Meru county, engaged Kianjai, Meru Town and Nkubu residents and traders on our vision to transform the country, in the company of ANC leader Musalia Mudavadi,” the DP posted on his social media pages.
On March 7, the DP was back in Nyeri for a series of rallies in an apparent effort to undo the President’s efforts marketing Raila in the region. He was in the same county a week earlier.
(Edited by V. Graham)
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