Now that the headache of picking running mates has settled, the battle shifts to the ‘swing regions’ for leading presidential aspirants Deputy President William Ruto and ODM boss Raila Odinga.
At least three vote-rich regions have emerged as battlegrounds that could shape the outcome of the presidential vote in the August 9 general election.
Analysts say that Central, with about 6.2 million voters, Western with 2.2 million voters and Lower Eastern with about 1.5 votes are the battlefields for the top presidential contenders.
“Central has no presidential candidate, therefore, it becomes a battleground area where people are struggling to win its support,” political analyst Javas Bigambo said.
“We are going to see a battle of wits. A battle of emotions and a battle of soul of Central,” he added, emphasizing the epic battle awaiting the duo in the region.
For the first time since 2002, the Mt Kenya region will not produce a leading presidential candidate and undisputed kingpin who controls the region’s politics.
It has become a battle field with Ruto and Raila fighting for a chunk of the vote bloc.
They have picked their running mates from there in a clear strategy to entice the region that has produced three of the country’s four presidents since independence.
The DP nominated the tough-talking and vocal Mathira MP Rigathi Gachagua as his second in command, while Raila went for the experienced and freedom advocate Martha Karua.
Some analysts observe that Ruto will be the man to beat in the region owing to the deep inroads occasioned by his sustained campaigns in the area.
The DP is believed to have capitalized on President Uhuru Kenyatta’s ‘absence’ from the region to win over vocal politicians and build a massive following in the area.
However, others argue that with Raila picking Karua, he will win the hearts of some residents, especially women who now believe they have a near realistic chance of occupying the seat of the country’s second in command since independence.
“Central has the highest number of undecided voters. The main reason is that those are the older voters who are not keen about Ruto but they feared Raila because of demonization over the years,” analyst Martin Andati said.
“But now that he has picked Karua, it gives them confidence. And with the influence of Uhuru now, it will be an interesting battle in the mountain,” he holds.
Andati adds that besides Karua wielding the woman card, she will likely give confidence to the undecided groups of voters, especially the older Kikuyus, the middle class and civil society.
“The excitement of women across board, both in and outside Central, speaks volumes. That tells you that Karua will get women votes for Raila across the board.
Kieni MP Kanini Kega, a Raila’s foot soldier in the region, said he is fast climbing the mountain.
“I can say for a fact, we are heading to the 50 per cent mark. At the moment, we are at about 40 per cent. If you ask 10 people from Mt Kenya who they will vote for, a minimum four will say Baba,” he said.
According to an opinion poll released by a research firm Tifa, on Wednesday, two days after Raila appointed Karua, the ODM boss’s popularity in the region rose to 24 per cent from 18 per cent a month ago.
“Raila will want to demonstrate that with a running mate from Kikuyuland, he can get more votes than Ruto — not in its entirety, but even 40 per cent,” Bigambo reckoned.
Ruto maintained the lead in the region with 46 per cent, but his percentage point dropped from 53 per cent in April, an indication that the region is slowly embracing Raila with about 80 days to the general election.
Rigathi, who was recently picked as running mate, said the region is firmly behind Ruto and downplayed Karua’s influence.
“Our President, who we love, tried to take us to Raila and we refused. Raila has now taken a woman from Kirinyaga to take you to his camp. Will that be possible?” Gachagua posed during a rally in Kajiado on Monday.
About 15 per cent of the voters were undecided, giving the aspirants a fodder to camp there to persuade them to their side.
In Lower Eastern — Machakos, Kitui and Makueni— analysts say Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka’s U-turn to run for President will push the region from a Raila stronghold to a swing area.
On Monday, Kalonzo pulled out of Azimio after he missed out on Raila’s running mate slot and announced his bid for President.
He also unveiled his running mate — Andrew Sunkuli — in a move that appeared to change the political landscape.
Kalonzo, a former vice president and an MP for decades, is regarded as the region’s undisputed political supremo.
“For Ukambani, depending on how Kalonzo goes, the region will still heavily vote for Azimio but it will be a serious battle field if he goes all the way to the ballot,” Andati opined.
In 2013 and 2017 elections, when he deputised Raila under the then Cord and Nasa coalitions respectively, he delivered the region’s votes almost to a man.
In 2017, Raila got 968, 437 votes against Uhuru’s 174, 669 votes.
If he goes all the way to the ballot, Kalonzo will most likely scoop a majority of the votes and tilt the outcome of the presidential election.
However, Ruto and Raila have separately intensified their offensive of the region with each winning influential governors and politicians from the region.
Raila has the backing of governors Charity Ngilu (Kitui), Kivutha Kibwana (Makueni) and former State House chief of Staff Nzioka Waita (Machakos governor aspirant).
Ruto, on the other hand, has won Machakos governor Alfred Mutua, former Machakos senator Johnson Muthama and a host of MPs who are marketing his bid in the region.
In Western Kenya, the fourth populous region after Nairobi, Central and the Rift Valley, the battle is epic.
“Western is a battle ground but it is heavily tilted towards Azimio. It will be Azimio’s to lose,” Andati said.
While the region is still seen as Raila’s to lose, Ruto has fought tooth and nail to wrestle it from him.
Ruto's efforts got a major boost after ANC leader Musalia Mudavadi and his Ford Kenya counterpart Moses Wetang'ula ditched Raila for his Kenya Kwanza.
However, observers say with Ruto not offering the region a 'powerful seat’ such as that of a Deputy President to seduce voters, he may not topple Raila in the region.
The DP offered positions of a chief cabinet minister, Senate speaker and 30 per cent government to Mudavadi and Wetang'ula provided they deliver 70 per cent of the vote to Ruto’s presidential basket.
“Western will not be split down the middle. It will be 65 per cent in support of Raila. This means the aspirations of Mudavadi to get 70 per cent of the vote is a bit wishful. It may not be practical,” Bigambo said.
Now, there are 2.2 million voters spread across its six counties – Busia, Vihiga, Kakamega, Bungoma and Trans Nzoia.
In 2017, Raila garnered 1.18 million votes or 82 per cent of the vote against Uhuru’s 242, 388 votes.
Nairobi, Coast and Northeastern are the other regions analysts believe will be the theatre of political battle.
However, they say, these areas are Azimio’s to lose depending on how they organise their campaigns and manage intra-coalition wrangles.
Edited by V. Graham
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