The iconic photo of James Orengo and Martin Shikuku on a pickup van trying to storm Kamukunji Grounds on July 7, 1990 — Saba Saba Day — will forever remain the defining image of mass action and the Second Liberation struggle in Kenya.
Braving what was practically a police state on a dangerous open-top vehicle, the two, alongside other liberation heroes, lay the foundation on which the return of multiparty democracy was built. In a way, they also normalised mass action as a tool for political agitation and activism.
Barring any last minute postponement or deal making, the Azimio brigade led by Raila Odinga is set to storm the city of Nairobi on Monday March 20 to carry out what should be massive protests, over, among other things, the high cost of living and what they consider their stolen victory in the 2022 election.
Advance teasers have already taken place in Migori and Kisumu counties, a clear indication that supporters of the coalition can’t wait for their big day. It is difficult to understand what Azimio’s end game will be on Monday.
Quite obviously, nobody will storm State House, Nairobi, without walking around with suicidal ambitions. But there is no denying the fact that hunger within the population and widespread despondency have given the political coalition a huge base from which to rally citizens, especially on the core message of high cost of living. On that score alone, the authorities may sound bullish during media interviews, but will be scratching their heads over how March 20 may turn out.
Wherever you go across this country, difficult times abound, and this is the sort of issue that could unite Kenyans across the political divide. The other item on Azimio’s protest list that is difficult to see happening is the demand that servers holding the data from the last election be opened for scrutiny. This, in fact, is a continuation of a consistent demand from all three past elections. To a large extent, this is the coalition’s own sins of omission coming back to bite them in the backside.
The famous handshake between President Uhuru Kenyatta and ODM boss Raila Odinga in March 2018, was born out of an electoral dispute arising from the 2017 presidential election. No matter how any deal within it was structured, the agreement should have included electoral reforms and the parties to the deal should really have never allowed the IEBC to proceed to the 2022 elections as then constituted.
That the Uhuru-Raila bromance never attempted any semblance of electoral reforms constitutes a shocking missed opportunity. After shooting itself in the foot over this, it is hard to see how even the unlikely opening of the servers would change the status quo.
However, the invitation to citizens to come to the city on Monday for the protests, in my view, is a game changer. Away from small protests spread out in the country, Azimio strategists seem to have figured, quite rightfully, that a more centralized lead protest in the city would have greater impact. I personally frown upon mass action that appears to happen in just one or two corners of the country. Indeed, early in the week, demos in Migori nearly turned chaotic.
I believe that mass action in towns and regions dominated by just one ethnic community may appear colourful, but ultimate choke the economy of just that one community, something an unfriendly regime would, in fact, encourage.
Having borne the brunt of many demonstrations and political violence in the past, Kisumu, for instance, has been rising again as the economic and regional giant it should be. I am not sure the lakeside city, within a hostile national government framework, can afford any mass action that negates its gains.
At any rate, the people of Kisumu, Homa Bay, Migori and Siaya counties, residents in the major cities of Nairobi, Nakuru and Mombasa, form a large enough human force to represent their homeland in political action in the other cities, without scuttling Kisumu’s rise.
Meanwhile, the government looks uncertain over how to respond to the imminent protests. Within the ruling clique, there are hawks that have declared there will never be another handshake, making the assumption that Azimio is pushing for a deal between Raila and President Ruto.
If you ask me, this is a really far-fetched theory. Of all past presidents, Ruto seems like the one Raila reserves the most contempt for, and I have doubts on whether the two can ever work together again. Indeed, ahead of the planned protests, Raila has dropped eerie farewell messages in his speeches during the countrywide barazas, indicating that on this, he is willing to pay the ultimate prize.
In one such rally in Migori last week, he characterised his visit as akin to Jesus Christ’s last supper before crucifixion, then proceeded to narrate a story in vernacular from local folktales, about a period the land went without rains and the gods demanded someone be sacrificed for the rains to come.
The Azimio boss then concluded by saying if he had to be person in the story, for prosperity to return to the land, so be it!
Later in Kwale, the ODM boss sang farewell songs. With an emotionally charged background like that, the grandstanding by people in government perplexes me.
Results of the disputed 2022 elections have Raila and Ruto dividing the country almost in half, but if the ODM boss is to be believed, he won by miles but fraud ensured he was robbed of victory. Regardless, a country divided right down the middle, and bang in the throes of famine, drought and everything that could go wrong, isn’t the variety in which any protest is dismissed as inconsequential.
I have heard younger UDA politicians such as Senate Majority leader Aaron Cheruiyot and the rather irritating Nandi Senator Samson Cherargei, remind Raila that “Ruto is not Uhuru”, euphemism for “Ruto will deal ruthlessly with any protests”.The folly of youth.
History is replete with rabid dictators whose supporters held this same view of invincibility, but ultimately fell to the power of the people. This is why I find it laughable, when faced with a national crisis, for sections of government to assume that protesting citizens can simply be beaten into submission.
Thankfully, there are also doves within the ruling coalition such as Nairobi Governor Johnson Sakaja, who has asked for the two feuding leaders, President Ruto and Raila, to engage in dialogue. Even if nothing much comes out any such dialogue, it would thaw the hardline positions increasingly being taken by the two sides.
Or the hardliners in government can wait for thousands of jobless youths to hit the streets with a long list of demands, and then they see how nice that looks or sounds. No matter what side one sits, Monday feels ominously the start of a new chapter of something. I just don’t know what.