Life is surely full of surprises.
President William Ruto's top blogger and ICT Chief Administrative Secretary Dennis Itumbi this week recalled that the last time Ruto was in The Hague, Netherlands, he was a suspect at the International Criminal Court.
But now here he was on Monday, May 8, in a convoy as the President to meet His Majesty the King of the Netherlands, Willem Alexander, at Noordeinde Palace, The Hague.
"Life and its moments...” Itumbi quipped.
It might also be worth noting that prior to the 2013 general election, Ruto, alongside Uhuru Kenyatta, whom he was a running mate to, were not the West's favourite, particularly the US.
In a phone briefing in February 2013 ahead of the March polls, Assistant Secretary of State Johnnie Carson said what became the famous quote, "Choices have consequences".
Carson was reacting to questions about Washington's position on the candidacy of Uhuru and Ruto, as the two were facing crimes against humanity charges at theICC following the 2007-08 election violence.
Some Western diplomats went on to say they would only maintain "essential contacts” with the two leaders, if elected.
In a TV interview, then UK High Commissioner Christian Turner was asked about the duo's presidential bid and how the diplomats would take it. He said: “It is difficult for us that I am not able to meet and talk to such important politicians in the affairs of Kenya".
Crossing the bridge
“I will cross that bridge when I get to it,” he said when asked what it would mean if UhuRuto ticket was elected.
Upon winning the election, Uhuru said, “We will work with those that want to work with us – for me it’s Kenya first.” And so, he continued President Mwai Kibaki's "Look East" foreign policy. China continued having a huge influence in Jubilee infrastructure legacy.
But with Ruto now in power, a shift towards the West is evident. The US, which was, by all indications, against their presidency in 2013, is now his number one ally.
This month alone, President Ruto has held talks with Canadian Foreign minister Mélanie Joly, IMF managing director Kristalina Georgieva, Germany Chancellor Olaf Scholz, Alexander and investors from the UK.
On Joly's visit, while not related but for context in this article, Canada and China have severed relations. China expelled Canada's consul in Shanghai, Jennifer Lynn Lalonde.
Beijing reciprocated Ottawa's declaration of China's diplomat Zhao Wei as "persona non grata" and ordered Lalonde to leave the country following reports of alleged Chinese political interference in Canada.
Ruto also held bilateral talks with Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and Israel's Benjamin Netanyahu, both close US allies.
In these meetings, economy, trade and investments were the top agenda. Following his meeting with Chancellor Scholz, President Ruto encouraged German businesses to explore and exploit the huge untapped investment opportunities in Kenya.
"We invite them to take advantage of our country’s geostrategic advantage and use Nairobi as the hub for their regional forays. We commit to support German investors with incentives to engage successfully with investment opportunities in our country," the President said.
Trip to woo investors
In London, Ruto wooed a group of investors from the UK with interest in agriculture, energy, water and housing sectors in Kenya.
"Kenya is cultivating a vibrant, predictable and stable institutional framework with irresistible incentives and guarantees that will stimulate the flow of foreign investments into the country,” he said.
It was the same messaging in the Netherlands, saying Kenya enjoys a solid relationship with the Netherlands, and it is his government's intention to strengthen the relationship further, particularly through trade in horticultural products, tea and coffee, fruits, and fish.
Other than trade, President Ruto has widely discussed the peace and security in the region with the US and the EU, becoming the key contact person in the Horn of Africa and the Great Lakes region peace processes.
The busy May week follows previous trips to Paris, Berlin and Brussels as well as New York.
In November last year, Ruto was in Seoul, South Korea – another US ally and its seventh largest trading partner - for a state visit.
Nigerian scholar and diplomat Prof Tunde Adeniran describes foreign policy as the policy pursued by a state in its dealings with others and consists of three elements.
The first is the overall orientation and policy intention of a particular state towards another, second is the objective a state seeks to achieve in its relation with other countries and third is the means of achieving that particular objective.
Policy as a term denotes planning which in turn suggests step by step procedure towards a known and defined goal. In broader terms, foreign policy is the totality of all state's actions, decisions, overtures or interactions with other actors in the international arena.
Increasingly, President Ruto has demonstrated he wants to look West, with limited engagement with China, which has been a close infrastructure development and economic partner for the last 20 years: under President Kibaki and Uhuru.
What does this mean for Kenya-China relations?
Upon the election of President Ruto, China's Xi Jinping said Beijing and Nairobi enjoy a time-honoured friendship with fruitful results in cooperation in various fields.
“I attach great importance to the development of China-Kenya relations and stand ready to work with President Ruto to advance the development of China-Kenya comprehensive strategic cooperative partnership to the benefit of the two countries and two peoples,” President Xi said.
And when the President met China Ambassador Zhou Pingjian in December last year, he said Kenya is committed to strengthening its mutually beneficial bilateral relations with China.
Ruto said the relationship between Kenya and China has provided access to the Chinese market.
"This relationship has provided access to the Chinese market for our agricultural exports like flowers, frozen avocados, hides and skins, while China has played a crucial role in the development of infrastructure in Kenya," he said.
Comparatively, however, the engagements have not been as many with the China side compared to the US and the West.
Is China concerned?
When I posed this question to Ambassador Zhou sometime last year, he maintained Kenya and China enjoy traditional friendly ties.
“We are confident that under the leadership of President Ruto and President Xi, the comprehensive strategic cooperation partnership will get stronger for mutual benefit for our two countries and our people,” Ambassador Zhou said at the China embassy.
However, the debacle over China Square, in which Trade Cabinet Secretary Moses Kuria, the man emerging as a key figure in President Ruto's Cabinet made harsh comments that a group of MPs termed as frustrating foreign investors, cannot be ignored.
So was the move by Roads CS Kipchumba Murkomen to release the controversial Standard Gauge Railway contract.
It is also curious that Kenya does not have a substantive ambassador after Mary Muthoni left the mission after only 10 months on the job.
While diplomacy experts such as Prof Macharia Munene argue that Ruto could also be trying to strike a balance between the East and the West, the engagements and the commitments point to a total shift on orientation.
But how easy will that be?
According to KenInvest, China has become Kenya’s largest trading partner, largest country of contracted project companies, number one of countries providing concessional loans and, until recently, the number one bilateral lender.
The country’s exports to China have multiplied by more than 30 over the past 15 years. Exports of services to China are also in excellent shape. For instance, the number of Chinese visiting Kenya has doubled in recent years. As far back as 2018, there were 81, 709 Chinese tourists compared to 53,485 that visited Kenya in 2017.
The country embarked on a diplomatic charm offensive to ease access and grow its market share for fruits, tea, coffee, cut flowers and vegetables in expansive China, the world’s second-largest economy.
This is after Kenya signed a memorandum of understanding with Beijing to set up a joint working group to flatten trade barriers on the sidelines of the annual China International Import Exposition in November 2018,
Already, the country has secured avocado market in China.
It will be interesting to see how China reacts to this, and whether a high-level visit to Beijing will point to balancing of ties in President Ruto's "Kenya First”-administration.