China's rise as the second-largest world economic power and the rise of Russia as an energy/ nuclear power continue to challenge the US’s global influence.
This has resulted in multipolar great-power competition among the triangle. It constitutes the top two economic powers, the three largest nuclear powers, the first, third and fourth biggest territories and the first, third and 10th biggest states by population.
While the US is still the superpower, its influence is increasingly being reduced by the rise of China and Russia, as the push towards a multipolar world intensifies.
China is the fastest-growing economy, while Russia is rich in natural resources, and is competing with the US in the military sphere. According to the World Bank, China’s real annual GDP growth averaged 9.5 per cent through 2018, a pace the Bretton Woods institution described as “the fastest sustained expansion by a major economy in history.” World Bank estimates its GDP growth will rebound to 5.1 per cent in 2023, from three per cent last year.
Additionally, China has become the world’s largest economy (on a purchasing power parity basis), manufacturer, merchandise trader and holder of foreign exchange reserves, making it a major US commercial partner, despite existing economic, political and security tensions.
Russia, on the other hand, has aggressively reached beyond its borders and region, reaching out to Africa, Asia, Europe and Latin America to extend and exert its influence.
Other than using its national resources such as oil, Moscow is also leveraging on arms sales, the use of private military contractors such as Wagner Group in West Africa, military support and grain export.
China-US relations
The complex US and China relationship since 1949 has been characterised by mistrust.
But Prof Lee Hamilton of Indiana University argues that over the last 30 years, Sino-American relations have undergone “an impressive transformation from animosity and conflict to candid dialogue and constructive cooperation”.
“These two vast and complicated countries have found common ground on issues of trade, investment and, more recently, security. But key issues remain unresolved, and the potential for troubling divergence is real as China becomes an economic powerhouse, a military force in Asia, and a potential rival to US hegemony,” Hamilton argues in his article published by Wilson Center.
Even so, as Hamilton observes, there has been considerable common ground and many areas of mutual interest between the two states on trade and investment.
However, Beijing has consistently accused Washington of unfair trade practices, with China's Ambassador to the US Xie Feng blaming America's tariffs and export controls for a drop in bilateral trade.
Reacting to a 14.5 per cent trade fall in the first half of the year from a year prior, Xie in August said, “This is a direct consequence of US moves to levy Section 301 tariffs on Chinese imports, abuse unilateral sanctions and further tighten up export controls".
The US-China trade conflict is politically instrumental and closely bound up with the development of the world order.
Their rivalry, as observers note, has become a paradigm of international relations in the past few years, shaping strategic international debates and real political, military and economic dynamics. It is likely to continue for a while.
Washington's counter-criticism of Chinese trading practices, unfair competition and rule violations are widely shared in Europe, and this appears to pitch the entire West against Beijing.
For instance, the European Commission on September 13 launched an investigation into whether to impose punitive tariffs to protect EU producers against cheaper Chinese electric vehicle imports it says are benefiting from state subsidies.
"Global markets are now flooded with cheaper electric cars. And their price is kept artificially low by huge state subsidies," Reuters reported European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen as saying in her annual address to the bloc's parliament.
The trade conflict is thus easily linked to the world order alignment between those who support China such as Russia, India and Turkey, on one side, and the West.
This has had an impact on relationships with other powers and regional dynamics as well as at the UN, the G20 and BRICS, which invited six more countries – Argentina, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia and the UAE –with more on the waiting line.
Russia-US relations
The State Department says it has “long sought a full and constructive relationship with Russia”.
It has, however, always been complicated and complex, and has now escalated following Russia's invasion of western-leaning Ukraine, a result of NATO expansion politics.
The US State Department acknowledges that “Russia has attempted to position itself as a great power competitor to the US by undermining norms within the existing international system using a suite of “hybrid tools”.
To succeed at this, the US says, Russia is undermining core institutions of the West, such as NATO and the European Union, and weakening faith in the democratic and free-market system, which are the West’s tools of influence across the world.
To counter Russia, the US is projecting strength and unity with Western allies, and this is well demonstrated in the war in Ukraine. According to the Council on Foreign Affairs, the US has since the war began directed more than $75 billion in assistance to Ukraine.
Alongside the EU, the US has imposed a series of increasingly severe and far-reaching sanctions on Russia and substantially increased weaponry, security, humanitarian and economic assistance to Ukraine.
President Putin is, however, not slowing down, going on to annex the Ukrainian regions of Donetsk and Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson.
Global allies
The voting patterns at the UN General Assembly demonstrate alignments among the world powers.
For instance, 47 countries abstained in the March 2, 2022, vote to demand Russia “immediately, completely and unconditionally withdraw” from Ukraine. China and India, which are seen to coalesce around Russia, were among the abstentions.
In his September 19 address to the UNGA, President Joe Biden urged world leaders to stand up to Russia’s invasion, calling for them to stand firm in their support of President Volodymyr Zelensky and Ukraine.
However, China has remained ambiguous on the conflict, avoiding to condemn Russia for the war but also denying it has extended support. Instead, it has maintained dialogue and negotiation are the only viable solution to the crisis.
Two weeks into the invasion, China Foreign minister Wang Yi said Moscow is Beijing’s “most important strategic partner” and that the two states would maintain “strategic focus and promote the development of a comprehensive China-Russia partnership”.
President Xi Jinping last year met with Putin on the sidelines of Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summit in Uzbekistan and, according to the Russian readout, they discussed the invasion, about which Putin acknowledged China has “questions and concerns,” while also thanking Beijing for what he termed “balanced position”.
There are, however, remarks and events that place China closer to Russia – farther away from the US.
China’s Foreign ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin in July 2022 criticised the US sanctions against Russia, terming them contributing factors to economic problems, including rising prices for food, crude oil, natural gas and nonferrous metals.
The US is seen to be undertaking the "double containment” of China and Russia. Therefore, inasmuch as Russia and China might not have shared values, vision and goals, they will align against a common enemy. How sustainable it is is another conversation, but it is clear the divide continues to widen. BRICS expansion, with China, Russia and India as the key players, presents a clearer picture.
Anti-American axis
In any case, what is emerging is the expansion of this axis to include more emerging powers such as Turkey at a time the Turkish foreign policy indicates an Eastern orientation. This could be attributed to disappointment in its EU membership process.
Turkish President Recep Erdogan early this month met President Putin in Sochi to discuss the grain deal, among other bilateral issues.
Ahead of the election in Turkey, Erdogan in May told CNN that Ankara has a positive relationship with Moscow, and they need each other in "every field possible".
“We are not at a point where we would impose sanctions on Russia like the West have done. We are not bound by the West’s sanctions,” Erdogan told CNN’s Becky Anderson.