Somaliland, the northwestern breakaway region of Somalia seeking international recognition, has been in the news.
This follows the New Year deal with Ethiopia, which triggered a regional and international storm, and the severing of diplomatic relations after Somalia recalled its envoy in Addis Ababa.
The pact gives Ethiopia long-sought access to the Red Sea's Port of Berbera and a naval base, which Somalia considers a “clear violation” of its sovereignty.
Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed a week ago told Parliament that Ethiopia, being a friend, does not wish any harm on Somalia, and the deal was based on mutual benefit.
On the other side, Somaliland leader Muse Bihi was reported on February 13 to have nominated a technical committee for the preparation of the final draft of the official bilateral deal.
Ambassador Bashe Awil, former Somaliland representative to Kenya and UAE, will head the committee, deputised by Ambassador Bashir Goud, the representative in the US.
But Mogadishu is up in arms as the agreement could also provide a route for Ethiopia to recognise Somaliland, which is an unprecedented move. This is where the problem lies.
Push for recognition
Somaliland, which used colonial boundary lines to separate itself from Somalia, has been pushing for statehood.
It has been lobbying the US, Kenya and other states directly, and through lobbyists.
During a US tour in March 2022, Bihi in a keynote address at the Heritage Foundation discussed the historical context of the bid, and desires of Somalilanders.
“Somaliland first gained independence and international recognition on June 26, 1960. Five days after independence, Somaliland united voluntarily with Somalia with the aim of creating a Greater Somalia,” he said.
But Somaliland no longer feels a part of Somalia. The more stable region has in more than 30 years operated independently, with its own government and conducted elections unlike Somalia since the fall of Mohammed Siad Barre's government in 1991.
In the US, Bihi said Somaliland has managed to deter threats to its national security and piracy in its "territorial waters".
“Our Coast Guard works with partners such as the UK to guarantee the safety and security of maritime trade through the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, and we work with foreign partners and international NGOs to minimise illicit trafficking and smuggling networks,” he said.
To justify the recognition, he said several countries, among them "Ethiopia, the UK, Denmark, Kenya, 'Taiwan', Turkey and the UAE" have some form of diplomatic representation in Hargeisa, even as it urged the US to open an office.
“With this presence and regular visits by senior US officials, we will be able to cooperate more closely in a number of key areas," he said.
It is important to note that the representation is not embassy level but consulates and or liaison offices.
In March 2022, US House Foreign Affairs Subcommittee member Scott Perry submitted a bill to the House of Representatives seeking recognition for Somaliland as an independent country.
Ambassador Bashe, during his tour of duty in Nairobi, also lobbied on different avenues, including through the media.
In an article published in this paper in February 2021, Bashe said official ties with Kenya would see more Kenyans venture into Somaliland as professionals and investors and boost its "fast-growing economy".
But the close ties have often put Kenya on the warpath with Somalia, pushing Nairobi to restate its one-Somalia foreign policy position.
Such was the case in December last year, when Senate Speaker hosted Somaliland representative Ambassador Mohamed Ahmed Mohamoud, whom in the statement after the meeting he wrongly referred as “the Somaliland Ambassador to Kenya”.
Foreign Affairs PS Korir Sing 'oei was forced to clarify, saying," It is Kenya’s established and unchanging foreign policy, consistent with African Union, that only the Federal Republic of Somalia is the recognised State entity.
"Somaliland, a region within the Federal Republic of Somalia, has a liaison office for commercial purposes in Nairobi. This office is not an embassy.”
In June 2022, Kenya apologised over the presence of “the inadvertent and inappropriate” presence of Somaliland’s flag at State House during the annual diplomatic address by then President Uhuru Kenyatta.
Then Somalia Ambassador Ahmed Nur had walked out of the meeting over the presence of Somaliland’s representative Mohamed Barawani and the region's flag.
In his protest note, Nur said inviting Barawani and himself at the event was a “violation of the sovereignty, unity and territorial integrity of Somalia”.
In January 2022, then Foreign Affairs Minister Raychelle Omamo said Nairobi considers Somalia as one entity with federal regions under autonomous administrations.
AU and UN's stand
Some senior politicians in Kenya have called on the AU and UN to recognise Somaliland, as did Opposition leader Raila Odinga in December 2020.
Raila, who is in the race for the AU Commission chairmanship said, “AU needs to wake up to the reality that it is not going to be possible again to bring these two countries together and recognise them as two separate countries”.
“I have talked in the UN, and I have talked in the London Chatham house. I said, and I have no regret and I will say it again that Somaliland is a reality, that the world has got to live with,” the Azimio leader said after meeting Bihi.
But Article 2 (4) of the UN Charter calls on all members to respect the sovereignty, territorial integrity and political independence of other states.
In addition, Article 3(b) of the AU Constitutive Act lists among the objectives of the African Union as " defend the sovereignty, territorial integrity and independence of its Member States".
Even so, an African Union fact-finding mission to Somaliland was dispatched in 2005 and reported that its case is unique, which should be judged “from an objective historical viewpoint and a moral angle vis-à-vis the aspirations of the people”.
The mission recommended that the AU should “find a special method for dealing with Somaliland” and confirmed that Somaliland’s status was “not linked to the notion of opening a Pandora’s Box” in Africa.
But according to the Council on Foreign Relations, some analysts fear international recognition would encourage other secessionist movements in Africa.
But Bashe argues Somaliland is neither seceding from Somalia as it was never a region of Somalia, nor is it trying to change the colonial boundaries.
"It is, therefore, not in contravention of the African Union’s Constitutive Act on maintenance of colonial boundaries. This fact has been asserted and re-affirmed by the African Union’s own fact-finding Mission report. The said report categorically stated and confirmed that Somaliland was not a case of secession and therefore needed to be treated differently," he writes.
But even if the matter would get to the UN, it would face objection from key global powers, chief among them China because it has a similar issue with Taiwan, which it considers its territory.
The sensitivity of the matter showed in recent meetings of IGAD and the AU Peace and Security Council as they did not take strong positions.
On January 18, the IGAD Summit failed to condemn Ethiopia over the Somaliland deal, as Somalia had asked, and instead urged them to de-escalate tensions and dialogue.
The IGAD Summit appeared to take cue from AUPSC, which at its January 17 meeting "reaffirmed its strong commitment and support for preserving the unity, territorial integrity, independence and sovereignty of all member states, including those of Ethiopia and Somalia".
The council called on them to adhere to and be guided by the core principles of the AU and international laws.
US Special Envoy to the Horn of Africa Ambassador Mike Hammer, backed Somalia at the IGAD Summit, saying, “The US recognises and reaffirms its respect for Somalia’s sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity, including, Somaliland".
Hammer added that al Shabaab is using the MoU to recruit a new generation of combatants.
Without any of the UN member states recognising Somaliland, with the caution AU and UN are treating the matter, and the global powers' interests and concerns, the push for recognition appears far-fetched, or one that will wait longer.