On October 27, 2023, I wrote here that any falling out between President William Ruto and DP Rigathi Gachagua would be a good thing for nation-building.
This observation followed reports of unease in Gachagua’s camp over conciliation between the President and younger Mt Kenya leaders, such as Kiharu MP Ndindi Nyoro.
The only thing worse than a bad leader, in my estimation, is a deputy who effortlessly brings out the worst instincts of that leader. And there is no denying that DP Gachagua’s methods and manners encouraged the more unwelcome side of the President to come to the fore.
For about two weeks, and at least 13 official functions by the time of filing this piece, the DP has not been seen in public, and the media conversation has centred on his whereabouts. Apparently, his mobile phone has been switched off, too.
A leading media house (we should say which one) the straw that broke the camel’s back came on Friday, May 10, when the DP was scheduled to be in Bomet county for National Tree Planting Day. His office reportedly sought a military chopper to transport Gachagua to the venue, but the Kenya Air Force declined, citing “orders from above” banning further use of military choppers by civilians.
First, let me state that if the military was given an order (and “from above” here can only mean the Commander in Chief) banning the use of military aircraft by politicians, then this order was long overdue.
In national security terms, it is immoral and unprofessional to see third-rate political rabble rousers popping into and jumping out of glittering Puma and Agusta military aircraft. In this case, one has to juxtapose these images with those of the Bell Huey chopper in which CDF General Francis Ogolla perished in an accident. It is not pleasant one bit. It is, in fact, an abuse of the principle of military obedience subservience to civilian authority.
In addressing the circumstances surrounding the unfortunate demise of Gen Ogolla, I am certain the President and/or the Head of Civil Service will consider the rampant deployment of military assets to non-core functions. Obviously, the government has to be aware that from the perspective of the troops, it looks really bad to see their chief perish in an accident that would be avoidable in better hardware, especially if such better instruments are available to politicians instead.
Regardless of whatever considerations come with a clean-up and rationalisation of the use military equipment, discipline has to be restored and the chaos checked.
Back to Gachagua troubles within government, I have always remained in the minority of Kenyans who prefer the old Vice President format, in which the President could appoint and dismiss his VP at will.
I see flaws with the Deputy President version introduced by the 2010 Constitution, which forces the two to hang on together until the next elections, even where their continued stormy ‘marriage’ creates national security challenges. We have been lucky that in both the Uhuru Kenyatta and Ruto regimes, neither the President nor the DP upped the stakes by making declarations that would threaten the peace, but I wonder how long we can bank on luck.
The one thing I know for sure is that in 2013, devoid of tribal and political considerations, as well as the hugely exploited Hague trial noises, Uhuru would most likely have picked someone else as running mate, and not William Ruto.
Similarly, in those long hours at then DP Ruto’s Karen complex in 2022, when majority of the UDA brigade reportedly preferred current Interior CS Kithure Kindiki as Ruto’s running mate for the 2022 election, the ultimate pick of Rigathi Gachagua was obviously based on tribal calculations and political pacification, rather than the national good.
Two regimes later, I opine this constitutional process has been diluted by pre-election dynamics that bestow on the country two people whose interests, temperaments and mannerisms do not promote the harmony required for the presidency to function harmoniously.
Last weekend, I opined that the current shakeup of alliances and networks within Kenya’s mainstream political parties was a sign of exciting political times ahead. That same weekend, the Limuru III conference, a political housekeeping conference of Mt Kenya politicos, took place. The vibe from it was largely centred around the disenchantment of the Mountain masses with the Ruto regime.
As is common with these gatherings, there was a pledge that the region would field a unifying candidate for president in 2027 to secure its interests. To be honest, the reference to “Mt Kenya” is often used to just cloak Kikuyu community interests, and to be fair, the community has had a candidate fitting the description in every election since the restoration of multiparty democracy in 1992.
Besides, the Mountain and Gachagua may not be the only ones scheming over the 2027 elections. I have a feeling that unlike former President Kenyatta, who stuck with his deputy in his re-election bid even when all bromance was gone, Ruto will not be shy to make changes to the ticket come 2027.
Ruto and Gachagua was a marriage of political convenience, cemented largely by the Mt Kenya region’s fear of ODM boss Raila Odinga, who was a big presence on the ballot. Raila may not run again, leaving the hate message to run its course.
In the new realignments caused by the shifting allegiances, the Gachagua crowd may want to watch Prime CS Musalia Mudavadi. A comparison is apt. Gachagua and Ruto fit the tribal matrix required for political and parliamentary numbers, even where they practically have no chemistry.
But Ruto and Mudavadi exhibit what is clearly mutual respect and trust for each other. Re-election is a legacy project. And once you remove the Raila equation from the ballot, I don’t see what calculations would stop Ruto from tapping Mudavadi as his true partner and potential successor.
In a nutshell, though, the fact that after three straight electoral cycles, we haven’t been able to find a President and a DP who complement each other and work in harmony, is an indictment of our multiparty democracy. The unstated fact underlying this failure is that the building of pre-election coalitions, in which ticket partners are forced on candidates by tribal arithmetic and other considerations, does not factor in the stability required for government performance after elections.
I am sure that soon, the Ruto-Gachagua break-up will become loud and messy, and just as in the last months of Uhuru-Ruto, many state functions will suffer and stagnate as a result.
I hate coalitions, both of political parties and of individuals within the same party, aimed merely at general elections. In an ideal scenario, if you ask me, a political party should present its party leader and the deputy party leader, as presidential candidate and running mate, respectively. Having had the opportunity to run a political party together, these two would posses the requisite chemistry, understanding and possible ideological homogeneity to function well as partners in government.
The experience of Kenya since 2013 shows that the opposite: picking a running mate at the last minute for election purposes, has no sustainable shelf life after elections. If Gachagua has fallen victim to this, he certainly won’t be the last, until we sort the foundation of our multiparty democracy.
Political commentator