It has been a difficult fortnight for Kenya’s most consequential political party, the Orange Democratic Movement. Not only did four of its topmost officials accept nominations as Cabinet Secretaries in the Kenya Kwanza government, but it got political beatings from friends and foes alike.
If President Ruto had raided any other political party, there wouldn’t be much of a fuss. But I have posited times without number on this page that ODM, and generally anything associated with its leader, Raila Odinga, gets judged by a lofty moral code not applicable to everyone else.
Since 2007, the party has already gone through many turbulent periods and survived. I am certain that it will ultimately find its equilibrium after this storm, too. It is worth a mention that any small issue in the organisation will now be blown out of proportion, because it is not just political season, but the Raila succession is in full gear, with competing interests pushing and shoving for space.
I have to admit that I was a little surprised that not many saw the departure of three top ODM party officials as a good thing. To me, it represented an ecdysis, a moment to seek renewal and strengthen the party. My view is that both deputy party leaders, Wycliffe
Oparanya and Hassan Joho, had become lacklustre and withdrawn, the latter going on a long absence after the 2022 elections, and only returning to the limelight after Raila’s announcement that he would be seeking the African Union Commission chairmanship.
The party chairman himself, John Mbadi, hasn’t been back to his vintage self since being overlooked for the Minority leader’s position in the current Parliament, after Azimio coalition honchos preferred Ugunja MP Opiyo Wandayi, now set to be his Cabinet colleague.
With the Ruto appointments, I presumed that the immediate conversation would centre around how to bring young and energetic blood into the newly vacant positions. This would energise the party for the next challenges, at least until the 2027 elections.
And the talent already abounds within the ranks. In fact, if anyone had sought my opinion, each vacancy would have been perfectly filled, considering regional balance, by a more vibrant personality from the same region as the departing official.
First, Oparanya’s slot should be a no-brainer. The most ideal successor as DPL would obviously be party secretary general Senator Edwin Sifuna, a native of Western Kenya, like the former Kakamega Governor. Save for the limited outrage in sections of the party after he criticised the appointments, Sifuna enjoys the biggest cross-sectional and multi-tribal support within ODM after Raila, and is perhaps is currently the most well-known face within the party’s parliamentary group.
Quite popular with the youth, Sifuna would bring ideological freshness and excite the base, ahead of the 2027 elections, especially given the opportunity to ultimately succeed Raila as the Party leader and future party presidential candidate.
The second DPL position to be vacated by former Governor Joho would, in my view, be a toss-up between Mombasa Governor Abdulswamad Shariff Nassir and Kilifi Senator Stewart Madzayo. But the latter seems to me to be a reluctant politician, far drawn from the ambitious and cut-throat competition that informs the rush for these seats.
This leaves the charismatic and politically-savvy Mombasa Governor a perfect shoo-in for the other DPL, a good enough position to consolidate the party’s support base at the coast and succeed Joho as the local kingpin.
For party chairman, I am also torn between Homa Bay Senator Moses Kajwang' and Embakasi East MP Babu Owino. Kajwang is a focused and thoroughly sober leader who would be totally deserving of this elevation. The Embakasi East legislator is a darling of the youths and a talented grassroots mobiliser with boundless energy. Either of these two youthful politicians would bring the much-needed renaissance and renewal in the movement and complement the top three very well.
As for the Secretary General’s office thus vacated by Sifuna, I doubt that the party needs to look further than Vihiga Senator Godfrey Osotsi. I consider this office to be the attack dog for both the party and the party leader, requiring a sort of political brawler, a role that fits Osotsi’s profile quite well. Finally, the Minority leader in the National Assembly, a vacancy created by the imminent departure of Ugunja MP Opiyo Wandayi to the Cabinet, ought to be filled by a woman.
It is important to note that all of the four ODM officials poached by Ruto are male and most of their replacements in the party will be too. For this one, I would go with Suba North MP, Millie Odhiambo. A principled and courageous political practitioner, she would complete a stellar cast of new ODM party and parliamentary leadership with the ability, the experience and the courage to face a new era confidently.
Certainly, there will be a lot of lobbying by vested interests, for these positions, but hopefully, the ODM boss has learned enough from the delicate and difficult transitions in all his former parties to navigate a succession that leaves behind a thriving party instead of one that joins the graveyard of others before it.
It may as well be better said that done. Simply put, one cannot deny that ODM’s image has been severely hurt by its officials’ acceptance of appointments into the rather unpopular Kenya Kwanza regime. In the short term, the bigger task is for the party to distance itself from the government in order to play its critical opposition duties properly. There is an element of uncertainty on Kenya’s political scene, with impending absence of Raila, for the first time since the restoration of multiparty politics in 1992. The new political landscape is set to be uncharted and unknown, and the fear in the air within the party is obvious.
In acknowledging this, perhaps we must also mention that ODM’s strength over time has been its unmatched ability to attract support from areas of the country far away from its perceived Luo Nyanza stronghold, especially in Western Kenya, the Coast and the capital, Nairobi. To sustain this strength, a post-Raila structure has to create space for non-Luo leaders in which they feel they have the same stake and influence within the movement as their Luo colleagues.
The brief falling out from the Ruto appointments brought out the stark reality of this, when a sitting MP made comments directed at the SG, which fell just short of calling the latter a stranger in the party. I have been a witness to party transitions since the Jaramogi-Wamalwa one in Ford Kenya in 1994.
Usually, the most difficult portion of it is getting the dominant community whose leader has just departed, to transfer the loyalty and respect to the new leader, often from a different community. Raila’s DPLs have been and will most likely remain non-Luos. Effectively therefore, whether it is ultimately Sifuna, as I have forecast in the foregoing, ODM’s survival hinges on how the vast Raila base embraces its new leader in the future. It all begins now, by first riding out the storm caused by the government appointments, before navigating the transition, akin to walking on eggshells, to avoid the fate of other parties before it.
Political commentator