•It is public knowledge that the anti-China rhetoric citing the Chinese debt/ borrowing featured prominently during the 2022 campaigns in the Ruto camp.
•Remarks by some senior Kenya Kwanza officials soon after forming government did little to save the situation.
The anti-China campaign narrative that was a key feature of President William Ruto’s campaign and the initial pro-West stance appear to have dented ties with China, if the dispatch of the bilateral talks in Beijing is anything to go by.
President Xi Jinping held bilateral talks with President Ruto ahead of the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation 2024, insisting on “mutual trust”, even as he acknowledged the “time-honoured friendship” between the two states.
China and Kenya have had a noticeable very warm relationship during the administrations of presidents Mwai Kibaki and Uhuru Kenyatta, a period that saw massive infrastructure development either financed or built by the Chinese.
President Xi took note of this saying, “China and Kenya have always joined hands and been at the forefront of Belt and Road cooperation, and completed a number of flagship projects in connectivity, significantly contributing to regional economic and social development and benefiting the two peoples.”
But as a discussion among some foreign policy observers noted, there were some keywords to note in the dispatch that was sent after the Tuesday talks: ‘Sincere partners’ and ‘mutual trust’.
On the face of it, it wouldn’t appear as a big deal as this is part of China's foreign policy language but a look at the past events suggests the Chinese are sending a message to the Kenya Kwanza administration.
As aforementioned, it is public knowledge that the anti-China rhetoric citing the Chinese debt/borrowing featured prominently during the 2022 campaigns in the Ruto camp.
For example, speaking during a service for Friends Church (Quakers) at Malava Primary School in Lugari, Kakamega county, in February 2021, Ruto said, “When everyone is empowered, citizens are able to pay taxes and the government will have enough revenue. We will not resort to lenders like China to extend loans to us. These loans we have acquired are bringing us bad luck”.
Remarks by some senior Kenya Kwanza officials soon after forming government did little to save the situation.
Take, for example, remarks by then Trade Cabinet Secretary Moses Kuria regarding the China Square establishment, arguing that it had set an unhealthy competition for small scale traders in Kenya.
“We welcome Chinese investors to Kenya but as manufacturers, not traders,” Kuria said.
Foreign Affairs PS Korir Sing’oei had to intervene, saying all actors, regardless of their nationality who operate within the law should not suffer any apprehension.
"No lawful investment actor- irrespective of their nationality- should be apprehensive because the country's investment regime is non-arbitrary and non-discriminatory," Korir said.
It would be a debacle that sent negative signals about the administration’s attitude towards China, inasmuch as Kuria was protecting the small traders.
Soon after settling in office, President Ruto realised he still needed to work with the Chinese. In his first visit to China last October for the Third BRI Forum, he sought $1 billion funding unlock stalled projects.
This was not forthcoming and it was not until this month that Budget chairman Ndindi Nyoro said they had received Sh40 billion for the stalled roads, a figure State House then scaled down to Sh34 billion.
There was also no deal for the SGR extension as well as the Mau Summit-Rironi road in October. While the Chinese had scaled down on lending, it would not far-fetched to argue a message was being sent.
There has, however, been noticeable warming of relations in the last few months, with Foreign Affairs Minister Musalia Mudavadi visiting Beijing in January this year.
Xi during the recent talks with Ruto proposed that the two countries should deepen their comprehensive strategic cooperative partnership by becoming "three types of partners", in it insisting on sincerity and mutual trust.
“First, the two sides should carry forward friendship and be sincere partners of mutual trust. The two sides should firmly support each other in safeguarding national sovereignty and independently exploring development paths suited to their national conditions,” the dispatch said.
Second, he said, the two sides should uphold fundamental principles while breaking new ground, and be cooperative partners of mutual benefit and win-win results.
In this, he proposes that the two states closely synergise the high-quality Belt and Road cooperation with Kenya Vision 2030, build an East African connectivity hub and industrial belt and strengthen cooperation in digital economy, new energy, economy, trade, poverty reduction and agriculture development.
Third, the two sides should strengthen confidence and be strategic partners in upholding fairness and justice, enhance communication and coordination on international and regional issues, work together to safeguard the common interests of the Global South and promote regional peace and stability.
In his road to Damascus Moment, Ruto said Kenya hopes to take the FOCAC Summit as an opportunity to push for further development of the comprehensive strategic cooperative partnership between Kenya and China.
“China is welcome to continue to increase investment in Kenya and expand bilateral practical cooperation in various fields, especially cooperation in connectivity, new energy, youth and other areas,” he said.
With the message home, China appeared to ease on the financing, with white smoke regarding the SGR extension and the Mau Summit-Rironi Road financing.
The protracted project negotiations were revisited in the bilateral talks between Xi and Ruto, and subsequently with the leadership of the China Communications Construction Company a pointer to an agreement soon.