Somalia President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud on Wednesday held talks with President William Ruto in Nairobi in his last leg of his shuttle diplomacy to the Troops Contributing Countries in the region.
Prior to the Nairobi visit, President Mohamud held talks with his Uganda counterpart Yoweri Museveni, Burundi’s Evariste Ndayishimiye and Djibouti’s Ismail Omar Guelleh.
The talks had a denominator: Regional peace, security and stability, Ethiopia's deal with Somaliland in the realm of respect for "territorial integrity, sovereignty and interference" and the change of the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia to the African Union Support and Stabilisation Mission in Somalia ahead of the December drawback deadline.
It also comes at a time the Somalia row with Ethiopia is fast escalating following the signing of an MoU in which Somaliland would lease 19km of its coastline to Ethiopia. Somalia termed this as an aggression on its territory, as it considers Somaliland its territory.
Ties have further escalated after Addis Ababa sent an ambassador to the breakaway region of Somaliland. Ethiopia named Teshome Shunde as its ambassador to Hargeisa, who has presented his credentials to Somaliland leader Muse Bihi.
In addition, the foundation stone for Somaliland’s embassy in Addis Ababa was laid on October 17 by Somaliland’s Minister of Foreign Affairs Essa Kayd on land donated by the Ethiopian government.
This came three months after Addis Ababa announced it was upgrading its consulate in Hargeisa into a full-fledged embassy. This unprecedented move indicates Ethiopia has moved ahead to recognise Somaliland as a state, much to the chagrin of Somalia.
In April, the Somali government expelled Ethiopia's ambassador and has maintained that Ethiopia must pull out all its troops on Somalia's soil by January 2025 largely due to the controversial port deal.
The hostilities are happening on the background of historical conflicts in the region such as the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam row between Ethiopia and Egypt, the maritime dispute between Kenya and Somalia whose ICJ ruling is yet to be implemented, the ongoing Sudan war and the tensions between Ethiopia and Eritrea.
Important to note, Somaliland will be holding elections on November 13 in which Ethiopia’s ally, Bihi, will be seeking re-election.
It is also at a critical time when the drawback of troops is ongoing towards the ATMIS transition to AUSSOM. Somalia has made it clear it won’t be allowing Ethiopian troops into the mission.
In fact, President Mohamud’s recent visit to the region is linked to this. On October 16, Ethiopia hosted a ministerial meeting of AU Troop Contributing Countries to ATMIS — Burundi, Djibouti, Kenya and Uganda— reportedly without notifying or inviting Somalia. This triggered Mogadishu to respond with the shuttle diplomacy.
At the conclusion of the visits in Nairobi on Wednesday, Somalia Foreign Affairs ministry in a statement reiterated its commitment to protecting its sovereignty in the transition of to AUSSOM.
“Ethiopia’s recent unilateral actions, including an illegal agreement with Somalia’s northern region, violate our sovereignty and erode the trust essential for peacekeeping,” Somalia Foreign ministry said.
The statement further accused past Ethiopian deployments of leading to “increased al Shabaab activity and little development.”
“As we prepare for the next phase of peacekeeping under upcoming AUSSOM, it is essential to reiterate that Somalia, as a sovereign state, holds authority to decide which Troop Partner Nation will contribute troops to this mission.
“The decision on troop contributions must align with Somalia’s national interests and preservation of its sovereignty,” it added.
The ripple effects have seen the entry of Egypt, which taking advantage of its disputed over GERD, has signed a defence pact with Somalia and offered to send troops to the country.
Further, a tripartite axis of Egypt, Somalia and Eritrea against Ethiopia has emerged.
A meeting in the Eritrean capital, Asmara, on October 10 called by Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki and included his Egyptian counterpart Abdel Fattah al-Sisi and Somalia’s Mohamud agreed to boost cooperation for regional security.
They also agreed to the “unequivocal respect for the sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity of the countries of the region.”
While it is acknowledged that negotiations could solve the conflict, Somalia has maintained that the bare minimum is for Ethiopia to renounce the port deal.
An offer by President William Ruto to mediate has already been rejected by Mogadishu, while attempts by Turkey in Ankara have stalled.
It thus emerges there is a very serious crisis in the Horn of Africa, which could potentially destabilise the region, amidst an ongoing war in Sudan and the instability in South Sudan.
Al Shabaab could also take advantage of gaps or
vacuum in the transition and the conflict to undo progress made in the last
almost two decades.
Regional analysts accuse Ethiopia of imperialist attitude in not only exploring Somalia as the weakest link in its access to the sea but also disregarding international rule-based order and the inviolability of colonial-based borders.
Further, there is the accusation it is pushing for the Oromo-Cushitic alliance.
But given Somalia is no longer diplomatically side-lined after years of statelessness, it has secured the support of IGAD, AU, the Arab League, the EU, the US and China, among others.
This places Ethiopia in a difficult position where retreating might draw consequences domestically while pushing ahead will continue to place it on a collision course with the so-called international community.
The
potential involvement of middle powers such as Saudi, UAE and Qatar will likely
internationalise the conflict Somaliland is said to be the heart of Somalia –
culture, poetry, language – and losing it would mean Somalia ceases to exist as
it is and thus not an option.
And if Somaliland is to seek independence and international recognition, then it ought to be from the Somalis/ Somalilanders, not external players Ethiopia has historically been a regional power in Eastern Africa and it is up to its leadership to deescalate the situation for the benefit of the region’s stability.