BY ELIUD KIBII
Al Shabaab killed at least 37 people and injured more than 200 others in a terror attack on the night of August 2 at Lido Beach in Mogadishu.
The attack, the deadliest in Somalia since the October 2022 bombings that killed more than 120 people and injured over 300, according to the UN, was followed by four other attacks that killed 16 people and injured 18 others in September alone.
This points to a resilient al Shabaab, even as the UN and the African Union work on exit of the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia, and amidst tensions in the Horn of Africa.
The wars in Ukraine, Gaza and now Lebanon and Israel-Iran have shifted the attention of the so-called international community from Somalia and its war on al Shabaab at a very critical time.
On August 1, 2024, just a day before the beach attack, resolved to establish African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia. Its key components include security stabilization, political support, humanitarian assistance and development and human rights and rule of law.
The resurgence of the terror attacks raises fundamental questions regarding the security of Somalia and the Horn of Africa stability during the transition of ATMIS into AUSSOM, which is supposed to be concluded in just three months.
The AU Peace and Security Council is aware of this and in August “underscored the need to assess the implications of ATMIS’ third phase drawdown to avoid any security vacuum during the transition period to AUSSOM”. The UN Security Council in August 2024 while extending its authorization of ATMIS until the end of the year also expressed “grave concern that Al-Shabaab continues to pose a serious threat to the peace, security and stability of Somalia and the region”.
Further, according to the agreed concept of operations (CONOPS) of AUSSOM, the al-Qaeda- affiliated al-Shabaab is employing “asymmetric tactics to carry out complex attacks”, and that in the short to medium term, it “may acquire the capacity to arm commercially available drones, potentially using them as a weapon of choice against the Somali security forces (SSF) and ATMIS troops”.
This is a clear acknowledgement by the AU and the UN of al Shabaab capabilities to take advantage of any gaps to launch more terror attacks. There is the fear that ATMIS’ exit will stretch the Somali security forces , resulting in reduced operational capacity.
It is for this reason that AUPSC has emphasised the importance of enhanced coordination among AUSSOM, the Somali government, troop- and police-contributing countries, the IGAD, the UN, and all the concerned partners.
The new missions work will involve supporting Somali Security Forces by enhancing their capabilities to maintain security and combat security threats, and protect key infrastructure installations and government institutions, a role currently being undertaken by ATMIS.
While AUSSOM with a projected 11,911 personnel — including 85 civilians and 680 police officers—, will work with Somalia to support various political processes such as federalism, reconciliation, and the implementation of the constitutional review process, the earlier missions’ mandate has been evolving to get to this point.
AMISOM, initially the African Union Mission in Somalia, was established in 2007 with the initial mandate being to stabilize and support the transitional government in Somalia, assist in the establishment of government institutions, and provide humanitarian assistance.
After 15 years, the UNSC authorized the transition of Amisom to ATMIS in April 1, 2022 with the mandate to support the government to implement the Somali Transition Plan and to transfer security responsibilities to the Somali security forces and institutions.
Now, the new mission coming into force on January 1, 2025 will prioritize ongoing peace- building measures, including providing security to Somali citizens and degrading al- Shabaab, leaving the Somali Federal Government to focus on state-building with the support of international partners.
However, regional tensions risk derailing this transition.
The AUPSC has already welcomed the offer by Egypt and Djibouti to “contribute to the elements of the AUSSOM”, pointing to warming of relations between Mogadishu and Cairo, at a time ties between Egypt and Ethiopia are deteriorating over the GERD Dam/ Nile waters.
The Somalia-Egypt military alliance in which Cairo will contribute 5,000 troops to the mission and deploy, arm and fund at least 5,000 others separately has upset Addis Ababa, whom Mogadishu has said won’t be part of the new mission over their dispute over a deal with Somaliland that Somalia considers its territory.
There are about 3,000 Ethiopian soldiers in Somalia under ATMIS.
Notably, according to the Africa Policy Institute’s Prof Peter Kagwanja, Somalia has not only threatened to expel the troops in ATMIS but also another 4,000 troops on its territory as part of an earlier bilateral agreement unless Addis Ababa recedes the controversial port deal with Somaliland.
“Ethiopia views its forces as creating a buffer zone against al Shabaab, a threat to its national security. Some local Somali forces and leaders have controversially voiced support for retaining Ethiopian troops in the country. But Somalia has the final word as to who should bring troops to its territory,” Kagwanja notes.
The Peace and Security Council has asked the AU Commission to engage “relevant partners to ensure adequate, predictable, and sustainable funding for AUSSOM and report on potential sources of funding by September”, which seeks to address the non- willingness by some Western partners to fund AUSSOM.
Somalia is in talks with Burundi, Kenya, and Uganda to participate in the new mission but with just three months and without clear commitments, there in concern a vacuum will emerge in which al Shabaab and other auxiliary groups may capitalize on.
Already, Al Shabaab has in the recent attacks demonstrated its capacity and capability to exploit such gaps as ATMIS draws down, overstretching the Somali forces.
Every indication is that a hurried drawdown without a proper plan for AUSSOM take off will result in a security vacuum and embolden al-Shabaab.