Small parties are threatening to pose major upsets for the big outfits in what could complicate hopes of presidential aspirants to secure numerical advantage for elective seats in the 2022 battle.
It has also emerged that regional bigwigs are propping up fringe parties to raise their stakes in pre- and post-2022 negotiations with whoever wins the presidency next year.
President Uhuru Kenyatta's Jubilee Party, Raila Odinga's ODM and now United Democratic Alliance linked to Deputy President William Ruto are some of the big parties facing a reality check from the small outfits.
These small parties are funded by wealthy individuals and are fighting in trying to outdo each other to capture the attention of the leading presidential hopefuls.
These small outfits include Gatundu South MP Moses Kuria's Chama Cha Kazi — who was earlier the face of People’s Empowerment Party that won Juja by-election —, former Education PS James ole Kiyiapi's Restore and Build Kenya Party, The Service Party allied to ex-Agriculture CS Mwangi Kiunjuri and the People's Democratic Party.
Of interest is the jostling by the leaders of these small parties as they seek to raise their stakes in case they are approached by presidential hopefuls shopping around for 2022 running mates.
Mt Kenya is likely to witness high octane political manoeuvres by leaders of the parties to benefit from the Jubilee falling out as President Kenyatta -the party leader- retires next year.
Notably, the region is at a crossroads with Uhuru's exit without a clear regional kingpin to inherit the mantle and Ruto's making significant inroads.
On Thursday, former Kajiado West MP Moses ole Sakuda admitted that the so-called big parties must gear up for a serious political showdown in 2022 against some of the small outfits.
“The fights may get nasty if the big parties bungle nominations,” Sakuda said, insisting that the usually bullish conduct by the big parties results in stronger fringe parties.
The former lawmaker and a close Uhuru ally warned the big boys to ensure they allow democracy to prevail at the primaries, especially in their strongholds.
'The reason why we are seeing these small parties scheming ahead of the 2022 polls is because they believe their big siblings will not conduct transparent nominations and therefore want to benefit from the falling outs,” said Sakuda.
The sibling rivalry associated with heightened political battles among parties supporting certain presidential candidates could give major parties a run for their money in the 2022 General Election.
ODM, Jubilee, UDA, Musalia Mudavadi's ANC, Kalonzo Musyoka's Wiper and Ford Kenya of Moses Wetang'ula as well as Senator Gideon Moi's Kanu are some of the big boys battling for 2022 numbers.
It is believed the winner of the presidential race would want to have a numerical strength both in the National Assembly and the Senate as well as among the 47 county assemblies to push for his agenda [no woman has emerged as a frontrunner yet].
Political analyst Felix Odhiambo said the fears of mischief are driving leaders to form small parties.
“It is no secret that those who are regarded as being close to party leaders appear to be the preferred candidates for tickets. Some who feel likely to be cheated out opt to drive other vehicles,” Odhiambo said.
A president would also want to enjoy the support of as many governors as possible to have influence in the strategic Council of Governors, which brings together all the 47 governors and pushes for the interest of county governments.
An unfriendly council would be a hell for a president who usually comes under fire whenever counties accuse the national government of delays in the disbursement of funds.
With the fringe parties positioning themselves, Central Kenya, Nyanza and the Rift Valley are some of the regions likely to be hit by a wave of the small outfits.
Kuria is already popularising the Chama Cha Kazi across the country.
He has unveiled an aggressive programme to popularise CCK, targeting to identify and woo more 2022 hopefuls.
According to an itinerary seen by the Star, Kuria will start his tours on August 7 and conclude the trips on September 14, with neighbouring counties clustered into regional blocs to ease logistics.
This is after he was last week ejected from the People’s Empowerment Party following a disagreement with officials over rebranding and an alleged plan to hand over the outfit to a leader from Western Kenya.
Political bigwigs from Central's Mt Kenya East are positioning to take over the Restore and Build Kenya Party, which was once led by former Education PS James ole Kiyiapi, as they seek to divorce Jubilee.
Already, former Embu Senator Lenny Kivuti and other politicians from the region have been positioned as new officials of the party Kiyiapi used in his 2013 presidential bid.
There are perceptions that the team is crafting a vehicle for Speaker Justin Muturi to use for his 2022 presidential bid amid fears the outfit could considerably chip away Jubilee and UDA's prospects of more elective seats in the region.
It has emerged that some politicians are scheming to chip away the support enjoyed by main parties by propping up fringe parties as alternative vehicles for 202 hopefuls.
The unfolding scenario could trigger the emergence of regional parties and ethnic-based outfits, that have previously been blamed for fanning tribal politics and impeding national cohesion efforts.
In a bid to market themselves, the small parties are expected to support certain presidential candidates who enjoy more support in specific regions they are targeting to avoid being branded as hostile outfits.
Some influential politicians have drawn lessons from the falling out in Jubilee Party, which was formed by collapsing small parties into the juggernaut it was in 2017, only for Ruto, who was part of the formation, to be edged out.
Kiunjuri, who is being touted as among possible Ruto 2022 running mates, is building The Service Party as an alternative vehicle for the DP supporters in Mt Kenya.
In the Rift Valley, West Pokot Governor John Lonyangapuo has shown signs of ditching Kanu and to form a new political party.
The move by Lonyangapuo will likely affect the dominance of Kanu, Jubilee and UDA parties in the region.
He is yet to disclose the name of the party.
On Wednesday, he dismissed allegations that his party is Pokot-based, insisting it will spread its wings to all parts of the country.
“My party is not Pokot as many purport. It has members and officials from across the country. I was in Kanu and some people urinated on us,” Lonyangapuo said.
This means Lonyangapuo's party will take on UDA and Kanu in the Rift Valley politics.
But Senate Majority leader Samuel Poghisio said West Pokot is still a Kanu zone and assured party chairman Gideon Moi total support for his presidential bid.
“We are ready to transverse this county and seek votes for our presidential leader,” Poghisio said.
In Nyanza, the People's Democratic Party, which is linked to Migori Governor Okoth Obado, is raring for a titanic battle against Raila in the largely ODM stronghold.
Obado, who is serving his second and last term in office, has been a thorn in Raila's flesh and is marketing PDP as the alternative vehicle for Migori county, to netraulise the ODM dominance.
Obado has mounted a massive membership recruitment drive for the outfit led by former South Mugirango MP Omingo Magara.
Migori, according to 2017 IEBC register, has 388,633 registered voters spread across eight constituencies —Rongo, Kuria West and East, Suna West and East, Uriri, Awendo and Nyatike Constituencies.
Multiparty democracy doyen and ex-Kitutu Masaba MP Abuya Abuya said small parties usually play a checkmate role for the so-called big parties.
“Main political parties strive to ensure internal democracy because they fear these other parties would reap big in case of any falling out especially issues associated with rigged nominations,” Abuya said.
“Where these big parties do not do proper scientific mapping taking into account their strengths, weakness and opportunities, small parties can not be underestimated, they can upset them,” he said.