Former Prime Minister Raila Odinga has significantly narrowed the gap between him and Deputy President William Ruto in the 2022 presidential contest, a new survey suggests.
The poll sponsored by Radio Africa Group Limited shows that Raila has more than doubled his support since July from 14.2 per cent to 28.6 per cent.
Meanwhile Ruto's support climbed from 42.7 per cent to 45.6 per cent, still short of the simple majority that he would need to win the presidential contest in the first round.
According to the new poll, 14 per cent of Kenyans are still undecided on how they will vote, down from 21 per cent in July. This indicates that positions are starting to harden in the presidential campaign.
Three per cent of Kenyans said they will not vote, down from eight per cent in July.
One Kenya Alliance principals Kalonzo Musyoka and Musalia Mudavadi followed far behind with 2.4 per cent and 1.9 per cent, respectively. Gideon Moi would only secure 0.9 per cent of the vote if the election was held today, according to the poll.
Oka has been seen as a potential third force that could sway the poll results but their campaigns are yet to take off amid reports of bitter squabbling.
President Uhuru Kenyatta has been trying to rally Musalia, Gideon, Kalonzo and Ford Kenya leader Moses Wetang'ula to support Raila without success. However, it appears at best they would add six per cent to Raila's share of the vote.
The latest Radio Africa poll was conducted between November 10 and 17 in all 47 counties with a sample size of 3,152 respondents. The data was collected using computer-aided telephone interviews. It had a sampling error of +/- 1.75 per cent with a 95 per cent confidence level.
A comparison with Radio Africa polls in January and July 2021 shows the highest level of support yet for Raila. He had 14 per cent support against Ruto's 43 per cent in July. In January, Raila had 20 per cent against Ruto's 39 per cent.
The July poll came two months after the High Court scuttled the BBI process but weeks before Raila kicked off his countrywide Azimio La Umoja campaigns.
When asked who they think will win the presidency regardless of whom they will vote for, 50 per cent of respondents said Ruto while 31 per cent said Raila.
However, only 1.4 per cent thought Musalia would win while 0.7 per cent said Kalonzo.
According to the survey, Ruto would beat Raila in all the former eight provinces except Nyanza. The DP would also beat Musalia in Western with 37.7 per cent support compared to 29.5 per cent for Raila and 11.7 per cent for Mudavadi.
In Lower Eastern (Makueni, Machakos and Kitui), Ruto would get 31.6 per cent of the vote compared to per cent 23.9 for Raila and 17.9 per cent for Kalonzo. That raises questions over Kalonzo's status as the Ukambani kingpin.
Ruto would beat Raila at the Coast with 42.9 per cent against Raila's 34.1 per cent, the poll indicates..
Ruto would also beat Raila in Nairobi at 42.0 per cent against Raila's 29.0 per cent.
Western and Coast have traditionally been seen as Raila's strongholds.
In President Uhuru Kenyatta's Central Kenya, Ruto's would garner 58.7 per cent of the votes compared to Raila's 18.1 per cent.
In his backyard of North Rift and South Rift, Ruto would secure 63.5 per cent and 54.5 per cent respectively. Raila would get 16.7 per cent in North Rift and 23.4 per cent in the South Rift
In Upper Eastern and North Eastern, Ruto would secure 52.1 per cent and 33.3 per cent respectively, against Raila's 22.6 per cent and 24.8 per cent.
In Nyanza, Raila would conclusively lead by 58.6 percent against Ruto's 25.5 per cent.
Over the last few months, Uhuru has been quietly rallying Central Kenya to support Raila's presidential candidature. The governors from the ten Mount Kenya counties - apart from Kirinyaga's Anne Waiguru, Nyeri's Mutahi Kahiga and Muranga's Mwangi Wa Iria - are supporting Raila.
Both Raila and Ruto have been aggressively campaigning in Mt Kenya, which has 5.9 million votes.
There is no big difference between males and females in who they support except that 15.8 per cent of women are undecided compared to 12.6 per cent of men. Both Raila and Ruto's support have slightly more men than women.
The top problem facing the respondents nationally was the high cost of living (78 per cent) followed by unemployment (62 per cent) and poor health care (15 per cent).
People appear to want change with 72.7 per cent saying they want new leaders and only 18 per cent saying they are satisfied with the old dynasties.
The most popular party was UDA with 32 per cent support followed by ODM with 22 per cent and Jubilee with nine per cent.