Azimio la Umoja candidate Raila Odinga has surged past Deputy President William Ruto in the presidential race, gaining by seven per cent in barely three weeks, a new poll suggests.
The poll by research firm Tifa was released on Wednesday, two days after Raila named Narc Kenya party leader Martha Karua as his running mate in what could have accounted for his sudden jump.
The survey shows that if elections were held today, the Raila-Karua ticket would lead the tight contest by 39 per cent against Ruto-Gachagua pair from Kenya Kwenza who would garner 35 per cent.
The DP named Mathira MP Rigathi Gachagua as his second in command on Sunday, making the running mate contest by the two front runners a Mt Kenya affair.
For the first time, Raila has taken the lead. Whether it is because of his choice of candidate or whether his numbers would have gone up for any other reason cannot be determined
“For the first time, Raila has taken the lead. Whether it is because of his choice of candidate or whether his numbers would have gone up for any other reason cannot be determined,” Tom Wolf, Tifa's research analyst, said
The new surge comes at a time Azimio has been in turmoil, with some key allies, including Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka, divorcing Raila.
According to the poll, Kalonzo and his running mate Andrew Sunkuli would get two per cent of the votes.
Fourteen per cent of Kenyans, however, said they were undecided, eight per cent declined to answer, while one per cent said they would not vote.
The poll was conducted on May 17 among 1,719 respondents spread across the country using telephone interviews.
It had a margin of error of +/- 2.34 per cent.
A similar poll by Tifa released on May 5 showed that Raila was trailing Ruto by seven per cent. At the time, Ruto polled 39 per cent, with Raila following at 32 per cent.
This is the first time in many years that Raila has outperformed Ruto, a trend by the pollster shows.
However, statistics show Ruto's support has stagnated over the last seven months and is now dropping, while Raila's ratings are rising.
For instance, the DP polled 38 per cent in both November 2021 and February 2022. He moved to 39 per cent in April and has now dropped to 35 per cent.
Raila, on the other hand, polled 23 per cent in November last year, then moved to 27 per cent in February.
By last month, the former Prime Minister had jumped to 32 per cent and now 39 per cent.
The new poll suggests that since last month, Raila has gained in nearly all the former provinces, except South Rift where he dropped from 37 per cent to 28 per cent.
On the other hand, Ruto has lost in all the regions except South Rift, Northeastern and Coast.
In Mt Kenya region, Karua's home turf, Raila has gained by six points, putting his support at 24 per cent.
However, Raila's biggest surge is at the Coast and in Nyanza where he has gained by 13 per cent.
Sixty-nine per cent of Nyanza residents said they would vote for Raila, with 49 per cent expressing willingness to vote for the ODM leader at the Coast.
Raila's support in Western has also grown by 12 per cent and now stands at 49 per cent.
In Central Rift, Raila's support has increased from eight per cent to 17 per cent
His support has also grown in Nairobi from 40 per cent to 49 per cent.
However, Ruto's biggest gain is in the South Rift where the survey shows his ratings have improved by 26 per cent and now stand at 66 per cent.
In Central Rift, which covers Nakuru, the DP’s ratings have gone down by 11 per cent from the previous 70 per cent to 59 per cent
The survey shows Ruto now has 23 per cent support in Lower Eastern from 28 per cent; 19 per cent in Nairobi from 25 per cent; 11 per cent in Nyanza from 21 per cent and 26 per cent in Western from the previous 29 per cent.
The poll also shows that 85 per cent of Kenyans could accurately name Raila's running mate as compared to only 59 per cent who could name Ruto's.
The pollster attributed this to Karua's long stint in public life.
The Narc Kenya boss is a veteran politician who has been on the political stage since the 90s and contested the presidency in 2013.
Gachagua was a provincial administrator and was only elected as MP in 2017. He was Uhuru Kenyatta's PA from 2002-2006 and knows his way around government
The Tifa poll also shows Azimio remains the most popular coalition in Kenya today.
The coalition has support of 38 per cent compared to 28 per cent support for Ruto's Kenya Kwanza.
Three per cent are supporters of One Kenya Alliance while 31 per cent are undecided.
However, Ruto's UDA is the most popular political party at 29 per cent with Raila's ODM coming second at 25 per cent.
Both Wiper and Jubilee tie at three three per cent.
Despite Karua's joining the Raila ticket, the poll shows that more men support the former Prime Minister than women.
Raila is supported by 43 per cent of men compared to 35 per cent support from women.
“Whether the Karua choice would bring more women to support Azimio remains to be seen,” Wolf said.
Ruto also has bigger support among men at 39 per cent as compared with women's 32 per cent
However, more than twice as many women as men remain undecided, making them a swing vote in the race.
The poll suggests that 19 per cent of women are still undecided as compared with nine per cent of men.
(Edited by V. Graham)
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