President William Ruto’s pronouncements, moves and signals have thrown his political camp and his critics into confusion, leaving everybody guessing about his 2027 plans.
While he has said he is not after populist policies, he has been sending covert and open signals of a man changing strategy in his second-term bid.
Some say his recent move on opposition leader Raila Odinga and his contradictory messages against his deputy Rigathi Gachagua, expose his intriguing political game plan.
Vanquishing the opposition through ‘soft power’, by public endorsement of Raila's African Union Commission chairmanship bid, Ruto has his main opponent in the last polls out of the way.
Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi, whom Ruto handed the Foreign and Diaspora Affairs portfolio in October 2023, is leading Raila's AUC campaigns.
Mudavadi's elevation and his reunion with Raila in the AUC campaigns could expose Ruto's long-term strategy that started last year, with the 2027 polls in mind.
While Raila has insisted he is not supporting the government after Ruto endorses him for the AUC seat, there are indications the camaraderie has eased tension and cemented ties.
Ruto also appears to be playing hard ball against some former allies, among them his predecessor Uhuru Kenyatta.
Analysts say, Ruto's 2027 strategy won't feature Uhuru as the principal opponent as was the case in 2022, with his plans likely to explore Western Kenya and Nyanza.
Political analyst and university lecturer Prof Macharia Munene says Ruto is trying to figure out the best re-election strategy after "ending his marriage of convenience with Gachagua".
"The marriage is over and the gloves are off. Ruto is trying to see if he can work with Mudavadi and bank on Western Kenya and Nyanza regions in case Raila is not on the ballot, while Gachagua is fighting for the mountain," he said.
Munene said Ruto is aggressively courting other regions but sitting on the fence as Mt Kenya cracks widen, to see if he can harvest some votes in 2027.
"Ruto's hopes are that Raila is not on the ballot in 2027, but I am seeing Raila running because he knows Ruto has lost the mountain," he said.
Ruto has remained silent on his feelings about Uhuru, opting not to speak publicly about him, despite a recent standoff over funding for the former President’s office.
Political analyst Javas Bigambo told the Star Ruto has swiftly changed his political strategy to enhance his re-election chances in 2027.
“Ruto is a strategic and tactful politician," he said.
Bigambo said Ruto will not repeat his 2022 election strategy in his re-election bid.
There is a likelihood for Ruto to replicate the Uhuru-Raila playbook that nearly vanquished his State House dream.
Bigambo said the falling out with Gachagua was inevitable.
Ahead of the 2022 general election, Uhuru teamed up with Raila after the 2018 handshake, rattling Ruto and edging him out of the succession matrix.
“The tragedy evidently befalling Gachagua is conterminous with the President’s tactical manoeuvres, which depict inevitable change of tact for his survival in the present as he prepares for his reelection," Bigambo said.
Raila is reinventing himself. This time as a continental icon and peacemaker to reclaim his influence, following successive defeats in presidential elections.
Just like when he joined hands with Uhuru after failing to beat him in the 2017 polls, Raila has gone slow in his attacks on the Kenya Kwanza government as he cements his new relationship with Ruto.
Even when Raila launches what analysts term as feeble attacks on the government, he has avoided directly hitting out at Ruto.
Ruto also no longer attacks Raila directly, with top government officials heaping praises on the Azimio leader as a national treasure with impeccable credentials to lead the continent.
Mudavadi said on Wednesday Raila is qualified for the AUC job.
“Raila is qualified. This is not about local politics, it is about national interests. We have a visionary leader with the credentials to fire up the African Union to greater levels," he said.
Ruto appears to be crafting a totally different political script to secure a second term in office.
There are indication the strategy Ruto used when he was DP to win sympathy and romp to victory in 2022 is considerably different from his new approach.
Unlike in 2022 when he was considered an underdog, he is now in power.
“The 2022 elections can no longer suit his 2027 needs. The reason Gachagua was picked, even when a number of his kitchen cabinet were opposed in favour of Kithure Kindiki, was because he needed a serious foot-soldier who would dismantle Uhuru manoeuvres in Central Kenya," Bigambo said.
Signalling his plans to walk away from Gachagua, Ruto recently contradicted the DP, telling MPs they are free to crisscross the country at will.
Speaking during a church service at Amutala Stadium in Bungoma county last week, Ruto told the MPs not to stop moving around.
“I am happy that many MPs are here. Moving across the country will enable them to know the other mandate of legislation is oversight,” Ruto said.
Gachagua had accused Kenya Kwanza politicians of roaming the country and fuelling premature succession talk on ‘his’ Mt Kenya turf.
“I urge the MPs to stay in their constituencies and serve their people. The habit of political tourism must stop. This is what is giving us trouble,” he said.
But the two leaders exchanged pleasantries during the National Prayer Breakfast meeting in Nairobi and Madaraka Day celebrations in Bungoma county, leaving critics and allies confused.
There are indications Ruto could have issued a subtle notice to Gachagua when he declared the 2027 running mate would be a woman.
“‘Riggy G’ and myself later on when we discuss our future politics, we must also agree that going forward, if a man is a candidate for president in our party, a woman must be the running mate and if a woman is a candidate then a man can be a running mate," Ruto said on March 7.
Makueni Senator Dan Maanzo said Ruto is prepared to ditch Gachagua in 2027.
"He [Ruto] has already given notice to Rigathi Gachagua that in 2027, you are not my running mate, my running mate will be a woman. He has already been given a notice to quit, therefore he must rebuild his career," he said.