Opposition chief Raila Odinga – a venerable kingmaker – holds the key to the re-election of President William Ruto in 2027.
Raila has come to the rescue of the politically troubled Ruto, who faces a barrage of tests.
This includes the rebellion from Central Kenya, following the removal of Rigathi Gachagua as Deputy President.
Relentless Gen Zs and the general population have also threatened to make Ruto a one-term President - a first in the history of the country.
In June, the youth nearly brought down Ruto’s regime with back-to-back street protests against his unpopular policies, including high taxes.
In a strategic move that seems targeted at solidifying his re-election, Ruto moved to strike a political deal with Raila, an experienced politician who controls crucial vote blocs.
“Certainly, Raila determines Ruto’s re-election in 2027, especially with the latest development in the country’s politics,” lawyer-cum-political observer Elias Mutuma said.
Raila comes with solid support bases that are necessary for Ruto to replace the restive Mt Kenya, which feels betrayed by Gachagua’s ouster.
“For Ruto to win, he needs a solid vote bloc. With Mt Kenya West, which is likely to vote as a bloc, now out, he needs a replacement which he found in Raila and his Nyanza backyard,” Mutuma stated.
Raila is a battle-scarred politician and an astute mobiliser who enjoys the backing of key bases that could secure victory for the President.
They include Nyanza, Western, Coast, Nairobi and parts of Northeastern and Rift Valley.
Political observer Mark Bichachi said Raila comes as a package to Ruto with other ‘small regional kingpins’ crucial for his re-election in the next polls.
“If you go to the Coast, Joho is there and [Amason] Kingi is already on the President’s side. This is the case with Western which has Oparanya who is very influential,” Bichachi said.
The veteran politician and his ODM party, however, have rejected claims of a 2027 political pact with Ruto - even though their camaraderie points to a political agreement.
“Let it be clear that there is no coalition agreement between ODM and UDA. We were just rescuing the government from a looming downfall,” deputy party leader Abdulswamad Nasir said.
But, the height of the relationship manifested as the collaboration in Parliament and endorsement of Raila’s continental job bid, telling of a political pact.
Raila’s top lieutenants secured plum Cabinet positions in Ruto’s broad-based government.
They are former ODM chairman John Mbadi (National Treasury) and former National Assembly minority leader Opiyo Wandayi (Energy).
Former deputy party leaders Hassan Joho and Wycliffe Oparanya also landed Cabinet jobs as Mining and Blue Economy and Co-operatives CSs, respectively.
“There is nobody who was born to be in opposition in Kenya. Let those who want to be in opposition start preparing to be in opposition because we will be in the government as ODM,” National Assembly minority leader Junet Mohammed said.
Besides inheriting the opposition chief’s political bases and making up for the ‘sliding’ Mt Kenya, Ruto’s deal with Raila also deflated the Gen Z wave and the nationwide rebellion that was fast building against him.
Further, in what is emerging as a clear plan, Ruto has thrown his weight behind Raila’s candidature for the African Union Commission chairmanship.
The head of state has personally traversed the continent drumming up support for Raila, who is largely expected not to run for President in the next polls.
“I have put my foot down to ensure Raila wins the coveted seat. He has all the qualifications to lead the Commission,” Ruto said about Raila’s candidature.
Raila is known for his kingmaker role. In 2002, his ‘Kibaki Tosha’ declaration ensured former President Mwai Kibaki’s victory and the end of 24 years of the Kanu regime.
In 2007, Raila agreed to a grand coalition with Kibaki following the post-election violence, a move that stabilised the government and restored peace.
This was the case during President Uhuru Kenyatta’s term when their “handshake” - a political truce - was secured, to quell the disquiet as Uhuru squabbled with his deputy.
In Ruto’s regime, Raila came in at the time when Gen Zs had threatened to bring down the Kenya Kwanza administration.
Raila confessed that he rescued Ruto’s government from imminent collapse following the demos that saw protesters storm Parliament in unprecedented rage.
“They had failed, dissolved the Cabinet and came to us to give them people. They came begging, ‘Please give us your people who know how to work’,” Raila said in August when he visited Toi market in Nairobi.
Political commentator Javas Bigambo said the collaboration effectively shut down the protests.
“The political dynamics inflated by the political deal between Raila and Ruto practically and tactfully robbed the demos of the critical mass from the stronghold of these two leaders,” Bigambo said.
The removal of Gachagua has brought a different set of dynamics.
A section of residents from Mt Kenya, which gave Ruto more than 40 per cent of the votes that granted him victory in 2022, have warned the President that he would pay dearly.
The vote-rich region handed Ruto 3.5 million votes from the area alone, to clinch the top seat.
“For us divorcing Rigathi is divorcing the whole mountain,” Murang’a Senator Joseph Nyutu said, signalling the region’s fallout with Ruto.
However, with Ruto picking Kithure Kindiki as Gachagua’s successor, the President appears to have succeeded in splitting the larger Mt Kenya along the East and West axis.
The President is likely to secure the backing of Mt Kenya East, where Kindiki enjoys massive support.
This, together with his Rift Valley turf and Raila’s bases, is almost sure to secure Ruto a second term.