President William Ruto and his allies are aggressively courting ODM for political backing in 2027, with the head of state’s options having narrowed after the dramatic ouster of Rigathi Gachagua.
Ruto, regarded by some as a master political tactician, finds himself in a tight corner with Gachagua going flat out to snatch away Mount Kenya from his grip.
The former Deputy President is assembling an alliance with Wiper Party leader Kalonzo Musyoka to grab power from Ruto in the next presidential contest.
Raila came in handy to stabilise Ruto’s besieged Kenya Kwanza administration from the nationwide wave of youth-led protests in June and July.
In recent days, their friendship seems to be growing, with ODM MPs accompanying Ruto to functions, including church services, and vehemently defending his government’s controversial decisions.
Ruto has also deployed heavy government machinery to back Raila’s African Union Commission chairmanship bid.
“If elections were held today, President William Ruto would be in a big mess. Former Prime Minister Raila Odinga might help, so he cannot survive without him,” university professor and political analyst Macharia Munene told the Star.
In June, waves of angry youths nearly brought down Ruto’s government to its knees with unprecedented back-to-back street protests against over-taxation.
In a strategic move that seems targeted at solidifying his reelection plan, Ruto moved to strike a political deal with Raila, an experienced politician who enjoys wide support across the country.
In the process Ruto not only fell out with his deputy but also lost support of the crucial Mt Kenya vote bloc, forcing the President to figure out Plan B to keep his reelection chances alive.
Observers believe Raila could offer the much-needed political support for Ruto to retain his seat in 2027. Political analyst Daniel Orogo told the Star it would be detrimental for Ruto to let go of Raila at a time he has lost support of his Mt Kenya base.
“He (Ruto) is between a rock and a hard place, given the fact that he has substituted the political voting base of Mt Kenya with Nyanza and Western,” Orogo said.
There is evidence and proof that he will do everything to have the support and goodwill of Raila.
This is just to prove that he can still go further in expanding his territory.
“It will be detrimental if he loses the support of Raila because of the possible threat of his own impeachment. His political future is dependent on his strong ties and the goodwill of Raila Odinga.”
Already, Ruto’s men have indicated plans of a new political alliance that will include opposition figures in 2027. Ruto’s senior economic adviser Moses Kuria on Sunday stirred the political waters, claiming a new political machine for Ruto’s 2027 reelection is in the offi ng.
The former CS said he did not make wrong political calculations and that the country should be ready for a new kid on the block as it heads toward the next polls.
“What I can see is that in 2027, a new nationalist movement, same as the 2002 rainbow movement, is loading and those with brains should join because there are people who will weep from outside,” Kuria said.
“I was a student of mathematics and there are some calculations that I do on politics. In politics, I don’t make mistakes.’’
Kuria spoke in Homa Bay county during a thanksgiving service for Governor Gladys Wanga, who was celebrating her appointment as ODM national chairperson.
Raila was in attendance at the jamboree that brought together strange bedfellows from both ODM and President Ruto’s UDA party.
Raila has traditionally controlled the voting patterns in Nyanza, Western, Mombasa, Nairobi and parts of North Eastern.
Minority Leader Junet Mohammed said anybody keen on getting support from Raila’s bases must do so through the former Prime Minister.
"Thse who want to speak to our people – and our people we know ourselves, people of Nyanza, North Eastern, Western, Masaai, Mombasa - they must speak to Baba and ODM,” Junet said on Sunday.
Saboti MP Caleb Amisi, however, holds the opinion that it will not be smooth winning Western for Ruto in the next polls.
“Ruto wants Western votes next election at a throwaway price through the perennial political dinosaurs, ostensibly because Kikuyu votes have a price tag,” Amisi said.
“Well, think twice. Western will not be a walk in the park because of historical injustices.”
Surprise appearances at the Sunday event by some UDA stalwarts, including former Cabinet Secretary Aisha Jumwa, exposed the behind-the-scenes political intrigues surrounding preparations for the 2027 polls.
A number of ODM MPs have been accompanying the President to various church services, an indication of a political deal in the offing.
MPs Opondo Kaluma (Homa Bay Town) and Migori Senator Eddie Oketh last month accompanied Ruto to a prayer service at Our Lady of Fatima Catholic Church in Moiben in Uasin Gishu county.
This month, ODM MPs George Aladwa (Makadara), Beatrice Elachi (Dagoretti North), Lilian Gogo (Rangwe) and Esther Passaris (Nairobi) were with Ruto at a church service at the African Divine Church in Dagoretti North constituency.
This, even as ODM maintains that it has not entered into any deal with the ruling UDA, stating the opposition party will field candidates in all positions including the presidency.
Plans for a gigantic political machine for President Ruto’s 2027 reelection bid come at a time some major realignments are underway following the impeachment of Gachagua as deputy president.
Gachagua has signalled he is working on a political comeback after his removal, with indications he could join forces with Wiper leader Kalonzo and DAP-K boss Eugene Wamalwa.
In what signals a possible truce, Gachagua was put on phone and addressed supporters during a gospel concert at Kimoroni Stadium in Murang’a county presided by the Wiper leader.
The realignments are expected to hit fever pitch in the coming months as bigwigs consolidate their formations and steady their ships for the 2027 polls.
While it is not clear whether Ruto’s UDA will merge with ODM, the two parties could work on a broad-based alliance akin to the Narc coalition of 2002 that vanquished the late President Moi’s stranglehold on power.
Already, UDA is pushing affiliate parties in the Kenya Kwanza alliance to fold and merge. Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi’s ANC already resolved to fold.
