Kenya’s candidate for African Union Commission chairman Raila Odinga has lined up back-to back campaigns as the race for the continent’s top job goes down to the wire.
Raila is to pitch tent in Francophone countries, nations some analysts have said could have a soft spot for his main rival, Djibouti’s Mahamoud Ali Youssouf.
The AU elections by secret ballot will take place in February 2025 during the African Union Summit. The AU has 55 member states.
All the eight senior leadership positions of the AU Commission are open, guided by regional allocation. They include the chairperson, deputy chairperson and six commissioners.
They serve four-year terms, renewable once. A campaign calendar shared by Raila’s head of campaigns Ambassador Elkanah Odembo shows tours across multiple French-speaking countries.
The vote-hunting mission starts this week as Raila embarks on a marathon diplomatic offensive stretching to February next year when African heads will elect the AUC boss.
Factors shaping the race include religion, age, the Anglo and Francophone divide, Western influence and the emerging forces in the continent, such as Russia and China.
According to his calendar, Raila will make first stop in Abuja, Nigeria, this week. Odembo, in an exclusive interview said the choice of Abuja is significant as it is the seat of the current chairman of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). The bloc has 15 members.
“We have prioritised the Ecowas region because it has significant numbers of Francophone countries,” Odembo told the Star.
“Abuja will be the first stop because Nigeria is the current chair of Ecowas and quite influential in the region.”
In Nigeria, Raila is to meet President Bola Tinubu. Cote D’ivore, Gambia, Ghana, Guinea Bissau, Liberia, Nigeria, Senegal, Sierra Leone, Togo and Cape Verde are some of the members of Ecowas that Raila seeks to woo.
However, Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger and Guinea, which are also members of the bloc, have been suspended from the African Union because of military takeover.
From Nigeria, the former Prime Minister will still focus on Francophone countries, including Senegal, Togo and Benin and Côte d’Ivoire.
Odembo said most Ecowas heads of state personally invited Raila during the recent Forum on China-African Cooperation (Focac) and United Nations General Assembly. On the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in September, Raila held talks with Senegalese President Diomaye Faye.
“Ivory Coast has a standing invitation for Raila because of the special relationship between President Alassane Outtara and Raila,” Odembo said.
The former Prime Minister will then head to Accra, Ghana, where he will meet the two leading presidential candidates in the December elections.
They are current Vice President Mahamudu Bawumia and former head of state John Mahama. ey aim to succeed Nana Akufo-Addo who is coming to the end of his first-term.
Akufo-Addo had initially pledged Ghana’s support for Raila. “Ghana has elections on December 7 so it is important for our candidate to meet the two front runners,” Odembo told the Star.
Raila will then head to South Africa, Zimbabwe and Botswana Raila will meet Botswana’s new President Duma Boko.
Raila’s Botswana visit follows a similar initiative by Deputy President Kithure Kindiki, then interior CS, who campaigned for the former prime Minister during Boko’s swearing-in.
“Honourable Raila Odinga is a great African statesman with vast experience in leadership,” Kindiki said.
“He brings a lot of value to the African Union Commission and can advance continental interests in development, trade, peace, and security. “Botswana and Kenya have previously voted together on many matters and I present to you, Mr President, a request from your brother, our President William Ruto, to support the candidature of Hon Raila Odinga, who is Kenya’s candidate for the African Union Commission chairmanship,” Kindiki said.
The two leaders explored areas of cooperation. Raila has had a twin launch of his continental campaign, both Nairobi and Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. Raila’s AUC campaign secretariat is working on multiple strategies to enhance his chances of victory.
His CV has been translated into six languages. The nations that have agreed to back Raila’s bid include the DRC, Tanzania, Uganda, Rwanda, Nigeria, Zambia, Zimbabwe and Malawi. Burundi, Seychelles, South Sudan, Guinea-Bissau, Angola, Algeria and the Republic of the Congo have also pledged to support the former Prime Minister.
The campaign will test to the limit Kenya’s diplomatic prowess as the government mounts a continent-wide campaign.
The continental vote could also be seen as a referendum on President William Ruto’s influence in the region as he pushes for Raila — his former rival and newfound political partner.
Ruto’s administration is believed to have unleashed considerable resources and is not taking any chances.
Djibouti in the Horn of Africa mostly speaks French and Arabic, with a GDP of about $3.515 billion, according to 2022 statistics.
This is a drop in the ocean compared with Kenya, a regional powerhouse with a GDP of $113.4 billion.
Candidates for Chairperson of the Commission participate in a televised debate broadcast live throughout Africa.
The Africa Leadership Debate, or Mjadala Afrika, provides candidates an opportunity to outline their vision of how they would lead the transformation of Africa.
The debate allows African citizens and stakeholders to ask questions of the candidates.
