President William Ruto is faced with a tough balancing act on the running mate he would pick to defend his seat in 2027.
Camps are already shaping up. Pundits say the patterns could complicate Ruto’s running mate options. Rigathi Gachagua’s ouster from the Deputy Presidency has triggered a major backlash in Mt Kenya.
The region, which propelled Ruto to victory in 2022, is gravitating towards Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka, with Gachagua’s blessings.
It is widely held that Kithure Kindiki’s appointment as the third Deputy President is yet to electrify the region.
Work is thus cut out for the former Interior Cabinet Secretary - to bag the vote to Ruto’s basket. Kindiki’s predecessor has created a tide, heavily charging the ground against MPs who voted to impeach him.
With Mt Kenya out of Ruto’s 2027 question, the President is said to have little options without the backing of former Prime Minister Raila Odinga. Political analysts venture that to survive, the President needs to inherit Raila’s bases including Coast, get Western and retain his Rift Valley backyard.
As such, the head of state has to keep Raila, Prime CS Musalia Mudavadi and National Assembly Speaker Moses Wetang’ula in his inner sanctum.
Pundits say the tricky part is the outcome of the African Union Commission chairperson race could significantly affect the 2027 ticket.
Should Raila win, it is argued, Ruto would have it easy in navigating what is already shaping as a tough contest.
Even so, the outstanding question is; will Ruto excite Raila bases without dangling a massive carrot? An ODM top honcho told the Star in confidence (so as not to jeopardise the ongoing ‘informal’ negotiations) that Nyanza would take no less.
“There is no backing, we will assure, if there is nothing substantive on the table,” the politico said, adding that the outcome of Raila’s bid for AU Commission would be a significant factor.
“The AU post is like a spread of margarine or butter holding two pieces of bread. Without it, we don’t think there would be any broad-based government,” the top gun said, lifting the lid on the slippery path Ruto is treading.
Ruto thus has to get Nyanza, a piece of the pie, rendering the question of how this will play out without affecting Mt Kenya East and Western.
How Ruto will balance the interests of the regions he is eyeing to get a first round win, remains to be seen.
For instance, the excitement in Nyanza is believed to be powered by the expectation that Ruto could pick a running mate from there.
Homa Bay governor Gladys Wanga has been touted as a frontrunner, coming after Ruto said his next running mate were a woman.
Should it materialize, Mt Kenya East, which has put its hopes on Kindiki getting them out of the long drawn political cold, is likely to shift.
Analysts point at the Raila factor in the race, should he be convinced by his people to challenge Ruto – is seen as ‘vulnerable’.
“If Raila doesn’t go, he may want to be a candidate. He may see Ruto as vulnerable and therefore have a chance to take over,” USIU don Prof Macharia Munene said.
A recent poll conducted by Infotrak revealed that Raila remains head and shoulder above the competition, having been voted the most influential politician in the country.
With these indicators, political analysts believe he could seek to challenge Ruto, further complicating the latter’s reelection bid.
“If he doesn’t get Raila and ODM to be on his side, he’s done. And I strongly believe Raila’s people will convince him to run,” Makueni Senator Dan Maanzo said.
If left with the Rift Valley only and without the support of the Kikuyu voting bloc, Ruto would face immense challenges.
The senator told the Star that they believe the former PM will run, whether he goes to Addis Ababa or not, and so will Kalonzo.
As such, the Wiper politician holds that Ruto’s chances of survival in the first round of the election would be minimal.
“He is in a very tight spot. He may not even need a Mt Kenya running mate in this regard.” Brian Mutie, a governance specialist, says for Ruto to fulfil the political desire of the region, he must get a Nyanza candidate.
“If he chooses a Luo running mate and maintains Moses Wetang’ula and Musalia Mudavadi by his side, the region will vote as a bloc,” he said.
Kenya’s election is sadly shaped by regional factions, of which Rift Valley has a potential 5.7 million votes. The former Western province has about 2.2 million votes while Nyanza has 3.1 million.
Kindiki’s backyard (Embu, Meru and Tharaka Nithi) - should he stick by Ruto - has the potential for 1.3 million votes.
As of August 2022, Coast had 1.9 million voters, numbers which would heavily factor in Ruto’s choices.
Comparatively, central Kenya has the potential of 3.1 million votes and 1.6 million for the case of Kalonzo’s Ukambani backyard.
Metropolitan Nairobi had 2.4 million voters in 2022 while Northeastern had 882,677. For Ruto’s men, however, not all is lost in the face of the uncertainty in the Mt Kenya vote. Baringo North MP Joseph Makilap said their plan is to continue courting central Kenya.
“We believe we are together with Mt Kenya East. Central Kenya presents a challenge. In these circumstances, we shall be reasonable as we don’t expect much,” the MP told the Star.
For Makilap, all hands are needed on the deck to push Raila to the AU so that Ruto can inherit the former PM’s followers.
“If we get Raila’s bases and reactivate the Kamatusa (Kalenjin, Maasai, Turkana, Samburu) voting bloc that the late President Daniel Moi used to survive, we will be home and dry,” the lawmaker said.
“Our heads are up. We are aware of the situation and will do all that’s possible to get it right,” Makilap said.
For the President’s men, the government of national unity remains
the key to a fall back plan, in case
Mt Kenya moves away.
