Raila factor: How AUC poll outcome will shape country’s 2027 election

The outcome of next month’s continental elections where Kenya’s opposition leader Raila Odinga is running for chairmanship could shape the country’s 2027 polls.

Raila, a seasoned politician, is running for chairmanship for the African Union Commission elections slated for February in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.

The former prime minister’s performance – win or loss – in the polls will impact local politics, which he has dominated for decades and determine the 2027 general election.

Raila is a battle-scarred campaigner and an astute mobiliser who enjoys the backing of key bases that could secure victory for a candidate in 2027.

“Whether Raila wins or loses the AUC elections, his particular interest in Kenyan politics will remain. He will continue [speaking] with both sides of the mouth,” political analyst Javas Bigambo said.

Raila’s victory in the election will see him abandon the local scene, a development which would leave a void and trigger alignments and realignments.

“I am not going to be very active in Kenyan politics henceforth as I continue now to focus on the continental campaign. But it is a transitional phase from active Kenyan politics to continental politics,” Raila said last year.

Already, talks of Raila’s succession, should he win the seat, have dominated the scene with key politicians angling to fill his big political shoes.

President William Ruto – Raila’s newfound friend – is championing his candidature and is determined to go flat out to ensure he secures the coveted seat.

Political observers say President William Ruto’s support for Raila is part of the wider political strategy to get Raila off the local scene and appease his political support bases in readiness for inheritance if he wins the seat.

Raila’s bases, pundits say, will compensate Ruto for the ‘lost’ Mt Kenya vote basket.

“Certainly, Raila determines Ruto’s re-election in 2027, especially with the latest development in the country’s politics,” lawyer-cum-political observer Elias Mutuma said.

Raila comes with solid support bases that are necessary for Ruto to replace the restive Mt Kenya, which feels betrayed by former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua’s impeachment.

“For Ruto to win, he needs a solid vote bloc. With Mt Kenya West, which is likely to vote as a bloc, now out, he needs a replacement which he found in Raila and his Nyanza backyard,” Mutuma said.

Raila, on the other hand, would return favour by surrendering his local political bases to the President.

“I have put my foot down to ensure Raila wins the coveted seat. He has all the qualifications to lead the commission,” Ruto said.

In the opposition, Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka who has been keen to secure Raila’s backing is seeking new alliances after Ruto and the former PM supposedly struck a political deal.

“Raila and I agreed (to work together). You know there was a time I helped Raila and this time round he has helped me, why should anyone find a problem with that?”

Ruto posed while addressing a mammoth crowd in Kondele, Kisumu county in November last year, signalling their political deal.

The AUC chairperson is expected to remain neutral and focus on continental issues, coordinating the commission’s work, implementing decisions and representing Africa in international forums, rather than being intertwined in the politics of any single member state.

On the other hand, a loss for Raila would see him return to local politics, a move that would throw Ruto, young Turks and old guards keen to inherit his political bases off-balance.

The former ODM party leader would play the kingmaker role for whoever he backs, but could also spoil the party for them if he decides to go for the country’s top seat again.

Political analysts say that Raila’s return to local politics could either make or break Ruto and other bigwigs in the elections.

“If Raila loses, he will feel cheated and he will come back a very charged man and run [for President]. That will completely change the dynamics for all these players, especially Ruto,” political analyst Martin Andati said.

Bigambo said Raila may not abandon Ruto even if he loses the AUC seat, but will use his ODM party, which he is keen to see vibrant, to negotiate for favours.

“Raila abandoning Ruto may not be the case because he has his selfish interests. He will negotiate for a bigger stake in Ruto’s government,” he said.

Political observer Mark Bichachi said Raila comes as a package to whoever person he supports with other ‘small regional kingpins’ crucial to winning the elections.

“If you go to the Coast, Joho is there. This is the case with Western which has Oparanya who is very influential,” Bichachi said.

Raila is on record saying his foremost priority remains to stabilise Kenya even as he eyes the seat.

“While I am running for the AUC chairperson’s position, my priority remains to stabilise my home country for future generations,” he said on his X account.

Raila, once described as an enigma of Kenyan politics, has dominated the country’s political scene for more than 30 years.

He enjoys a massive following in his Nyanza backyard, Western, Nairobi, Northeastern and Coast, key vote baskets which could determine the outcome of the 2027 elections.

Political commentator Daniel Orogo said Raila, being a master and tactical politician, is treading carefully on his planned exit from taking an active part in Kenyan politics.

He said the opposition leader has ensured his party remains vibrant and his loyal political lieutenants assume the role of three deputies and chair.

“In case he is not elected as the AUC chair, he has a smooth pathway back to his political position as the ODM party leader,” he said.

Raila will run against Mahmoud Ali Youssouf from Djibouti, Anil Kumarsingh Gayan of Mauritius and Richard Randriamandrato of Madagascar.