President William Ruto and former Prime Minister Raila Odinga during the Genowa Governor’s Cup at Raila Odinga Stadium in Homa Bay county /PCS
Former Prime Minister Raila Odinga’s ODM party has been soaked in internal tensions that can now be traced to the partnership with the Kenya Kwanza government.
The 2024 broad-based government arrangement that saw the nomination of Raila’s allies into the Cabinet has triggered a political storm in the opposition party, with a number of ODM leaders silently expressing discontent.
While some ODM luminaries view the partnership as a timely move that helped steady the country, some leaders have criticised the decision as a liability for the outfit, which is plotting to win power in 2027.
Several discontented ODM leaders have now opted to skip functions involving the President in a clear confirmation of growing disquiet in the Orange camp.
It’s feared the division could be further exacerbated by the absence of Raila should his bid for the chairperson of the African Union Commission bid be successful.
Pundits also argue that ODM’s continued association with the ruling UDA could dim the party’s chances in the 2027 election.
A case in point was a meeting convened at State House in Nairobi late last year that attracted only a handful of the ODM MPs, with a majority keeping off.
Notable names who skipped the September meeting included ODM secretary general and Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna and MPs Babu Owino (Embakasi East), TJ Kajwang’ (Ruaraka) and Tim Wanyonyi (Westlands).
Sifuna, who has been consistent in dissociating ODM from the deal with UDA, later termed the invite ‘disrespectful’.
In what is now becoming a pattern, Kisii Senator Richard Onyonka – also elected on an ODM ticket – publicly declined President Ruto’s New Year eve dinner last week.
“Because of my deeply held views on these issues, I will not be attending the State New Year -Eve Dinner at the Kisii State Lodge, on the evening of Tuesday, December 31, 2024, in my capacity as the Senator of Kisii County. I therefore decline the invitation,” he said.
Skipping government functions reveals underlying concerns about the party’s relationship with the current administration.
The number of those opposed to the deal could be higher as some of the discontented members have decided to keep mum to avoid being the target of political reprisals.
Some Raila men have however downplayed divisions, insisting the party is intact and is playing its oversight role. ODM deputy leader Godfrey Osotsi, while dismissing division talks, said attending presidential functions is not a confirmation of support.
“Attending a function does not in way portray you as either pro government or [in] opposition, for instance, the meeting in Bondo was largely cultural. By us attending it doesn’t mean we have joined the government,” he said.
“ODM is very clear: we do not have any coalition agreement yet so we have no close association. Those who joined government resigned so they cannot speak for the party.” “Whatever action they take they are doing as members of the Kenya kwanza government,” he added.
“We will always support what is right but will vehemently oppose anything that appears to be retarding the democratic and freedom gains that we have made as a country and that is the position we are not departing from.”
Former political detainee and ODM political affairs secretary Wafula Buke, however, holds a different opinion, maintaining that ODM, like Raila, have joined forces with the government.
“Nobody can even be sure whether ODM is going to exist and operate as a party which is supposed to contest for power or it maybe co-opted in the existing structures and assist the ruling party capture power and give them a sizeable share,” Buke said.
“That is the dilemma people who are in ODM ought to have.” Raila’s recent announcement that ODM would challenge Ruto in 2027 has also fuelled confusion in the party ranks as most supporters largely expected an alliance with UDA.
“When the elections come in 2027, ODM will be the next party to form the next government,” the former Prime Minister announced in Vihiga late last year.
Raila’s confusing remarks have triggered mixed feelings across the political divide with some members of the ruling party reading hypocrisy. Kakamega Senator Boni Khalwale called on the opposition to avoid the mixed signals.
“It bothers me that whilst in Nyanza your message with the masses in unison is that you are unequivocally behind H.E. William Ruto,” Khalwale responded to Raila’s Vihiga remarks.
“However when you come to Western, as it was at the thanksgiving party of Senator Osotsi, you send mixed signals. You are confusing our people.”
Buke, however, believes that it is just a matter of time before ODM declares support for Ruto’s re-election in exchange of a share of the government. “I personally believe it is possible that they may not be going for power, they will just enter a partnership with Ruto and see what becomes of it.”
There have been reports that President Ruto and Raila could cobble up a 2027 machine for Ruto’s reelection bid following the formation of the broad-based government.
The President’s allies have indicated plans of a new political alliance that will include opposition figures.
Nandi Senator Samson Cherargei and Ruto’s senior economic adviser Moses Kuria have separately talked of plans of a behemoth coalition that will secure Ruto’s reelection. Cherargei, while dismissing chances of Raila’s sixth stab at the presidency, talked of high chances of the former premier joining forces with Ruto.
“In 2027 there is only one horse H.E. Ruto in possible combination with Tinga, the rest are donkeys. He will vanquish them by 10am,” Cherargei said. “Raila shall win the African Union chairperson unopposed and in return shall support H.E. Ruto’s re-election in 2027.”
In November Kuria also alluded to the possibility of Ruto and Raila facing 2027 polls from the same side.
“What I can see is that in 2027, a new nationalist movement, same as the 2002 rainbow movement, is loading and those with brains should join because there are people who will weep from outside,” Kuria said last month.
“I was a student of mathematics and
there are some calculations that I do
on politics. In politics, I don’t make
mistakes.”
