President William Ruto’s grand plan for another term in office is increasingly facing headwinds with ODM – a key partner in his administration – sending mixed signals on their support for his 2027 re-election.
Ruto in a calculated political manoeuvre shifted his focus to Raila Odinga’s bases after a visible decline in support from Mt Kenya, a key region whose vote propelled him to power in 2022.
The region, home to impeached Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, gave Ruto over four million votes in the last polls, more than half of the 7,176,141 votes the President secured.
Over the last few months, the camaraderie between Ruto and Raila has grown with some of Raila’s key allies consistently and publicly pledging ODM’s backing for Ruto in the 2027 polls.
However, ODM has in the last few days heightened a campaign to dissuade its supporters that the party will back Ruto.
On Friday last week, Raila’s party fired a warning shot to its leaders pushing for Ruto’s re-election, insisting that ODM will field its own presidential candidate.
“To this end, we must all be guarded in pronouncements on the future of the party and particularly refrain from beating the drums for our competitors,” the party said in a statement following a meeting of the Central Management Committee.
Raila, arguably the most experienced politician at the national stage today, is known to change his political positions quickly depending on circumstances.
Should ODM refuse to back Ruto, the President is likely to be in a precarious position with Gachagua mobilising Mt Kenya to reject his re-election.
Interestingly, the Friday ODM CMC was chaired by acting party leader Anyang’ Nyong’o, an ideological soulmate and confidant of Raila.
It was attended by among others Gladys Wanga (national chair), Edwin Sifuna (secretary general), Godfrey Osotsi (deputy party leader), Abdulswamad Nassir (deputy party leader) and Junet Mohamed (National Assembly Minority leader).
Sifuna has over the past week maintained that Ruto is unable to win the 2027 polls, even with the support of ODM.
He says the party will commit the biggest political blunder should it back Ruto’s re-election bid.
“There will never be a greater opportunity for ODM to form government than what I am seeing now. It is widely acknowledged that the President has lost so much ground and it is going to be impossible for him make up that ground,” Sifuna said during a morning talk show on Spice FM on Wednesday.
“With that clarity, why would anyone want to yoke themselves with a very unpopular President? That is a mistake that I personally as secretary general would not want the party to make.”
Constitutionally, Sifuna’s position exalts him as the only spokesperson for the Orange party and his words bear much weight on the party’s political future.
Some of the ODM leaders, however, broken ranks with the party and declared support for Ruto’s re-election bid.
The leaders – majority ODM Nairobi MPs – accompanied the President to a church service in Nairobi’s Dagoretti North constituency where they even suggested a merger between the party and ruling UDA ahead of 2027.
The MPs were George Aladwa (Makadara), TJ Kajwang’ (Ruaraka), Antony Oluoch (Mathare), Beatrice Elachi (Dagoretti North), Mark Mwenje (Embakasi West) and Felix Odiwuor (Langata).
Alego Usonga MP Sam Atandi also attended the church service at United Pentecostal Church.
The political intrigues suggest that even if Raila decides to back Ruto, ODM will face the polls a divided house.
Apart from Sifuna, Embakasi East MP Babu Owino and Kisii Senator Richard Onyonka have also publicly refused to embrace Ruto. Many other lawmakers have adopted a wait and see strategy.
In the Friday meeting, Nyong’o, who now leads the Orange party, warned ODM members against advancing the interests of rivals.
“We urge all our members that ODM is a distinct political force, committed to winning power through democratic means,” he said.
“In this pursuit, let us be mindful of our words and actions and avoid supporting our competitors in ways that may undermine the party’s unity and goals.”
But in clear defi ance, some ODM lawmakers led by Aladwa said they will not be cowed in their support for Ruto whom they described as the best candidate in 2027.
The leaders cited Ruto’s development record as well as his unity drive for their backing. Aladwa said the President has showed goodwill by co-opting five ODM leaders to his Cabinet and the party should reciprocate by supporting his re-election bid.
John Mbadi (Treasury), Hassan Joho (Mining), Wycliff e Oparanya (Cooperatives), Beatrice Askul (EAC) and Opiyo Wandayi (Energy) – all former ODM leaders – were co-opted into the broad-based government.
“Unlike Shikuku (veteran opposition leader Martin Shikuku) who visited State House at night, we will go in broad daylight. We are not pretending when we say we are supporting you,” a charged Aladwa said.
The Nairobi ODM county chairman also hit out at those calling Ruto a one-term President, insisting they are in for a rude shock.
Atandi urged Ruto to stay on course, saying he should not be distracted by naysayers plotting against his re-election.
“Some people are saying you are a one-term President. So long as you have God and Baba you will not serve one term,” Atandi said.
Ruaraka MP TJ Kajwang’ even vowed to look at the ODM constitution with a view of ensuring that the Orange party and Ruto are on one side ahead of next elections.
“I am also looking blindly and can also see good things happening. You were the founding member of ODM. As CJ, I will look at all the articles and sections of ODM constitution which will make you a member of ODM. In the short period of time I will look at that,” Kajwang’ said.
Oluoch said they will be watching closely the partnership before making a decision on the next step to take.
“There is something in politics called health break. It is like a come-we-stay marriage – if things get well you move to the sitting room then bedroom, but if it gets bad you part ways, which I hope will not be the case,” the Mathare lawmaker said.
The doublespeak has exposed
simmering divisions within the
party’s ranks, raising questions
about its cohesion and future, all
working against Ruto’s interests.
