It has been amusing, to say the least, how former Prime Minister and now opposition leader on sabbatical Raila Odinga has morphed from the most hated person in Mt Kenya to its potential saviour from a second term by President William Ruto.
Even hardcore Raila haters hope or pray he abandons his AU chairmanship bid, or if he wins, they hope he steps down to run against Ruto in 2027.
The African Union Commission chairmanship election will be held at the summit it Addis Ababa next month, though the date has not been set.
Not everyone hated Raila in the Mt Kenya region; rather, over the years, Raila gained more and more support there, especially in the 2017 elections.
Just before the 2007 elections, I met a serious businessman from the mountain and when he found out I was a lawyer in the United States, he was thrilled and invited me to go home with him to discuss business.
It was rather impromptu, but after checking with someone who was well-informed, I was assured it would be no problem to accept the invitation, which I did. Upon entering his compound, he led me straight to his gazebo, and as we settled in for our chat, I saw we were facing another sitting area with a large-screen television.
“Angalia huyo msaliti, shetani kabisa!” (Look at that traitor, the devil!).
He was talking about Raila, who was then being interviewed at the Pentagon.
In fact, I was present at that interview that day. Knowing I might be spotted, I shuddered to think what my newfound friend would do when he learnt he had just insulted a good friend!
Fortunately, I did my best to distract him by focusing on what we were there to discuss and, of course, stayed clear of any discussion of politics, let alone Raila.
I relay this anecdote to say the hatred of Raila in Mt Kenya was and, in some ways, still is, deep and real.
Fast forward to Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua’s impeachment, however, and Raila’s fortunes in the mountain appear to have flipped.
Why? Because he was seen as possibly the only one who could defeat Ruto in 2027. Writing about this before the Gachagua impeachment, I noted the following: it was assumed Ruto would easily serve two terms with the backing of Mt Kenya.
No one foresaw the revulsion against him that took place. So dire was the anger at Gachagua’s impeachment that Raila, who was hated in Mt Kenya like nobody else, suddenly became a darling in the eyes of the many Raila haters of yesteryear.
Raila had a choice: save Ruto and smooth his way to the AU chairmanship with a say in the Kenya Kwanza government, or save Mt Kenya, with an unknown outcome.
It was an easy decision. It was an easy decision, indeed, that will soon bear fruit because it is a foregone conclusion that Raila will win and, this time, he will be sworn into the office he won, the AUC chairmanship, in this case.
Raila says other victories in Kenyan elections had been stolen.
That being the case, with Raila on Ruto’s side as we head into 2027, nearly every place is locked for Ruto, which is regrettable for anyone else who might try to challenge him.
Yes, some do harbour some hope that someone will emerge to harness the revulsion for Ruto in the Mt Kenya region, along with the Gen-Z anti-Ruto vote, to send Ruto home come 2027, but that is just a dream.
There has been some chatter following former Speaker Justin Muturi’s recent moves, accusing NIS of abducting his son, which one observer described as earthshaking, but it’s doubtful Muturi can give Ruto a run for his money, if he is fronted as the man to do so.
'The only person who would have had a good shot and possibly succeed is Raila, but you can take it to the bank that Baba is headed to Addis Ababa as AUC chair.
This leaves Ruto without a serious contender to send him home, but that doesn’t mean we’ll have a boring election.
The writer is a legal analyst and political commentator
