Cracks continue to widen in the Orange Democratic Movement as leaders go for each other’s neck over the broad-based government deal with President William Ruto.
The agreement that saw five ODM members join Ruto’s administration has left the opposition sharply divided into two camps.
Ruto, in a calculated political manoeuvre, shifted his focus to Raila Odinga’s bases after a visible decline in support from Mt Kenya, a key region whose vote propelled him to power in 2022.
Over the last few months, the camaraderie between the head of state and Raila has grown, with some of the former Prime Minister’s key allies consistently and publicly pledging ODM’s backing for Ruto in the 2027 polls.
This new dalliance is at the centre of ODM’s internal strife - with fears the party could implode in the absence of Raila, who is gunning for the African Union Commission chairmanship set for next month. Raila has been the party’s glue for the past two decades of its existence.
One faction, led by senior party officials, argue that the deal - despite the many flaws - was meant to stabilise the government and in effect, have taken upon themselves the role of the ‘praise and worship team’ of the Ruto administration.
National Assembly minority leader Junet Mohammed and the party’s national chairman Gladys Wanga lead the faction.
Inspired by Wanga/Junet’s script, a section of ODM leaders led by Makadara MP George Aladwa have publicly endorsed Ruto’s re-election, contradicting the official party position.
Another group led by hardliner and ODM Secretary General Edwin Sifuna are adamant that the party will front its own candidate to take on Ruto come 2027.
Acting party leader and Kisumu governor Anyang’ Nyong’o also maintains the party will be in contention for the State House race in 2027.
Their position is that Ruto’s administration is unpopular and could easily lose the election even with the support of ODM, a possibility that could sink the political careers of many within the opposition party.
Sifuna has over the past week maintained that Ruto is unable to win the 2027 polls, even with the support of ODM.
He cautioned that the party will commit the biggest political blunder should it back Ruto’s re-election bid citing the case of Azimio in 2022, which had a coalition of 26 parties but still lost to the Kenya Kwanza alliance.
Sifuna, determined to maintain the party’s identity, has even issued marching orders to ‘government sycophants’ to decamp to the ruling party.
“Leave ODM and join UDA if you cannot defend Kenyans,” Sifuna told the ODM leaders who have become Ruto’s mouthpiece.
The Nairobi senator spoke on Sunday during a church service at Nairobi’s Eden Gospel Trumpet Ministry.
The crack has triggered a nasty power struggle in the party with a section of the party lawmakers threatening to initiate the ouster of the firebrand SG.
Some have gone ahead to accuse him of warming up to the Kalonzo-Wamalwa-Gachagua axis. In an interview, Sifuna reiterated that the party is not in government, saying he will go all out to ensure the outfit not only retains its identity but also captures power in 2027.
“We have been very clear in our communication, ODM is not in government. The position of the party is given after meetings of the organs of the party where we all sit,” he told the Star.
Constitutionally, Sifuna’s position exalts him as the sole spokesperson for the Orange party and its organs.
The senator also dismissed threats to remove him from the party, saying he has received such warnings frequently since the start of his tenure.
“I am now the longest serving SG of ODM. I am beginning my eighth year in February. Every single day for the past seven years I have heard similar sentiments but I am still here,” he told the Star.
“From the day I was appointed in 2018, when we were doing by-elections in Kibra, Matungu they said Sifuna must go. I am just working, I am doing my job. It has never scared me, it is not unusual.”
Sifuna also stated that those in ODM who have been talking of a coalition with UDA are free to express their sentiments, since they are exercising their freedom of speech.
“When you come up and say you will support Ruto in 2027, that is your democratic right, I also have a right to come and say my party will field a presidential candidate. That is what democracy requires, it is not something to fight over.”
The conflicting positions raise questions about the party’s cohesion and has left supporters confused.
Analysts, however, see ODM’s hot and cold approach as a deliberate political approach to appease both President Ruto and the party’s support bases.
Political analyst Daniel Orogo told the Star the script has been employed by the Orange party to survive the current political murky waters.
“This is a strategy of the ODM party and Raila has perfected it for such a long time, it is deliberate,” the analyst said.
ODM deputy party leader Godfrey Osotsi, wading into the debate, admitted there are chances of forging alliances.
“We are alive to the fact that any serious coalition must have strong partners. This is the time to build the parties. Our focus is to build ODM then think about how we can get into coalition with others,” the Vihiga senator told the Star.
“In 2027, if there is need for us to get into a coalition we will look for like-minded partners, this time round we will not entertain weaklings who want to benefit from our strengths, we will engage with parties of equal strength, determination and shared invitation.”
But Osotsi was quick to add that in any arrangement, they will still field a candidate for the top seat. “ODM can [only] get into a coalition where they are going to serve a secondary role. We are building ODM so that in 2027 we also field a Presidential candidate on the ODM ticket.”
Political commentator Collins Ajuok argues that the party could be having more than two factions and Raila’s silence on the confusion is not helping the situation.
“The longer Raila keeps quiet, the more each faction gets entrenched,” Ajuok cautioned.
