Former Prime Minister Raila Odinga is on the cusp of one of the most significant diplomatic contests of his career.
As Kenya’s candidate for the African Union Commission chairperson, the 80-year-old veteran politician faces a defining moment that could cement his legacy or pull him back into domestic politics.
For President William Ruto and the Kenya Kwanza government, this election is more than just a diplomatic race—it is a political highstakes game.
The administration has invested significant political and diplomatic capital in Raila’s candidacy, making it a crucial test of Kenya’s influence on the continent.
A YEAR OF INTENSE DIPLOMACY
Over the past year, Ruto has actively lobbied for Raila, engaging African leaders and securing endorsements on the sidelines of key continental and regional meetings.
Meanwhile, the former premier has embarked on an intense diplomatic tour, visiting 29 capitals in a bid to shore up support.
Observers say that regardless of the outcome, Raila is already making history. However, a victory would add another chapter to his storied career, elevating him to a key leadership role on the continental stage.
THE POLITICAL IMPLICATIONS FOR KENYA
A win for Raila could reshape Kenya’s political landscape. His ODM party is already facing internal power struggles over his potential departure.
If he secures the AUC position, the possibility of an ODM-Ruto alliance ahead of the 2027 election cannot be ruled out.
Conversely, a loss could see him return to the domestic political arena, complicating Ruto’s reelection strategy.
With his deputy, Rigathi Gachagua, sidelined in recent political developments, the President would face a stronger opposition.
RAILA’S CONFIDENCE IN THE RACE
On Monday, Raila exuded confidence about the election, saying he would respect the will of African leaders regardless of the outcome.
“I have spoken to leaders across Africa. If they choose me, I will serve as the AUC chairperson. If I win, well and good. If I don’t, that’s also fine—don’t I have my home?” he said at a prayer meeting in Nairobi.
“I am confident that with God’s guidance, we will succeed. If we win, we have succeeded; if we lose, we have still succeeded.”
THE FINAL PUSH
President Ruto arrived in Addis Ababa Friday for a last-minute push ahead of Saturday’s election.
Since officially endorsing Raila on August 27, Ruto has remained deeply engaged in his campaign.
On Wednesday, the former PM wrapped up his campaigns in Bujumbura, Burundi, after meeting with President Évariste Ndayishimiye.
Hours later, he left for Addis Ababa for the final stretch of negotiations.
“I am heading to Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, for the final stretch. I thank you all for your unwavering support and prayers throughout this journey,” Raila posted on social media.
KENYA’S DIPLOMATIC STRATEGY
Kenya’s Foreign and Diaspora Affairs Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi, who has been leading Raila’s diplomatic push, remains optimistic about victory. He has been engaging key stake holders to translate commitments into votes.
“In the remaining days, we will continue lobbying for votes. We are not taking any chances until the final count confirms our victory,” Mudavadi told journalists in Addis Ababa on Wednesday.
THE COMPETITION
Raila is up against Djibouti’s Foreign Minister Mahamoud Ali Youssouf and Madagascar’s former Foreign Minister Richard Randriamandrato.
On Wednesday, reports surfaced that Youssouf had withdrawn from the race, though he quickly dismissed these claims.
“Incorrect news about my withdrawal from the race for AUC chairperson was reported in some Arab media outlets. I confirm that I am still in the competition,” Youssouf posted on X (formerly Twitter).
Youssouf is widely seen as Odinga’s main challenger in the election.
LESSONS FROM KENYA’S 2017 BID
Kenya’s last attempt at the AUC chair in 2017, led by then-Foreign Minister Amina Mohamed, ended in disappointment.
Analysts attributed her loss to strained regional relations, political miscalculations and the Francophone-Anglophone divide within the AU.
Despite leading in early rounds, Amina lost in the seventh round after some East African nations abstained.
A key weakness of her campaign was the composition of Kenya’s lobbying team, which leaned heavily on politicians rather than seasoned diplomats.
A MORE STRATEGIC APPROACH
Learning from past mistakes, the Kenya Kwanza administration assembled a more robust and technically skilled campaign team.
The secretariat, led by Foreign Affairs Principal Secretary Korir Sing’oei, includes diplomatic heavyweights such as former US Ambassador Elkanah Odembo, Intergovernmental Authority on Development executive secretary Mahboub Maalim and Ambassador.
Anthony Okara. Other key figures include legal expert Prof Makau Mutua, former Nyeri Deputy Governor Caroline Karugu and Interior Principal Secretary Raymond Omollo.
The team has actively engaged regional blocs, securing support from the East African Community, Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa and the Economic Community of West African States, among others.
THE AUC ELECTION PROCESS
Assembly of heads of state and government elect the AUC chairperson and deputy chairperson through a secret ballot.
A candidate must secure a twothirds majority of eligible member states to win.
If no candidate achieves this threshold after three rounds of voting, the contest is narrowed to the top two contenders.
Should neither secure the required majority after three additional rounds, the election is suspended, and the deputy chairperson temporarily assumes leadership.
The deputy chairperson must come from a different region than the chairperson, following AU regional rotation principles.
HIGH-STAKES VOTE ON SATURDAY
On Saturday, 49 AU member states will cast their votes to elect the continent’s next top leader.
Six countries—Niger, Burkina Faso, Mali, Guinea, Sudan and Gabon—are currently suspended from the AU and will not participate.
The vote will take place during the 38th AU Summit in Addis Ababa, with only heads of state, vice presidents and foreign ministers eligible to vote.
KENYA’S STRONG PRESENCE IN ADDIS ABABA
At least 100 Kenyan MPs, top government officials and governors from across the political spectrum have traveled to Addis Ababa in solidarity with Raila.
However, the government has denied allegations of funding their travel.
“The Kenyans coming here have done so of their own volition. There is no government expenditure involved,” Mudavadi clarified on Wednesday.
THE POLITICAL FALLOUT
A win for Raila would be a significant diplomatic and political triumph for Ruto, potentially consolidating his regional influence.
As the continent awaits Saturday’s decision, all eyes are on Addis Ababa.
For Kenya, the stakes could not be higher.