The political forces ganging up to unseat President William Ruto face plenty of hurdles that could favour the head of state in the 2027 polls.
The President faces a growing list of opponents amid waning popularity due to a battered economy and unpopular policies.
The difficulty of picking the opposition candidate to face the incumbent and competing interests could be a huge advantage for Ruto.
Multiple opposition candidates would split opposition votes, a scenario the President could exploit to pull a surprise in the polls.
Already, reports are emerging of clashing egos, ultimatums, government infiltration and apparent divisions within the opposition ranks just over two years to the elections.
Political analyst Charles Munyui said a divided opposition would split votes and increase the possibility of a run-off.
“If you fail to unite, then the person who will benefit is the incumbent. That is a reality that they all know.”
But he warned the assumption that the opposition would not unite could be detrimental to the President.
“That is the case with a runoff. The President may win in the first round but then face a united team in the run-off. It is wiser to work with people. Get a genuine following based on performance.”
A presidential candidate needs 50 per cent of the votes cast plus one to win in round one.
The President has ringfenced his Rift Valley backyard and secured the backing of Northeastern leaders and residents.
Ruto is also banking on his political deal with Raila to solidify Nyanza, Western, Coast and Nairobi.
However, he faces an uphill task in Mt Kenya following his fallout with his impeached deputy Rigathi Gachagua and in Eastern where Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka is flexing his political muscles.
Former President Daniel Arap Moi capitalised on the divided opposition to win after the reintroduction of multiparty democracy.
In 1997, for instance, Moi faced four opposition candidates and won with just 40.6 per cent of the votes. Mwai Kibaki got 31.0 per cent, Raila 10.8 per cent, Kijana Wamalwa 8.2 per cent while Charity Ngilu got 7.9 per cent.
In 2007, the opposition is believed to have lost after Raila and Kalonzo failed to agree. Although the 1997 and 2007 elections were held under the old constitution that provided for a simple majority as the threshold for victory, they offer a lesson on how a divided opposition can hand victory to the incumbent.
With the rush to register parties, more politicians are expected to declare their interest in the top seat as the election date draws near.
Others could run as independent candidates. The once mammoth opposition coalition – Azimio La Umoja One Kenya – has all but become moribund.
The coalition faces internal wrangles that have seen partner parties speak at cross-purposes. ODM, Wiper and Jubilee read from different scripts.
Raila’s ODM has two wings, one supporting the President and the other attacking him.
Raila struck a deal with Ruto, a move that saw the Orange party release five of its top officials to the Kenya Kwanza Cabinet.
While some ODM members want the party to support Ruto’s re-election, others want the outfit to field a candidate.
Wiper, on the other hand, is fronting its party leader Kalonzo, who is traversing the country to popularise his bid.
Jubilee, whose party leader is former President Uhuru Kenyatta, is fronting Fred Matiang’i as its candidate in the next polls.
“We endorsed him as the Jubilee Party candidate. He performed well, transformed the country’s education sector, and we believe he can replicate that,” deputy party leader Joseph Manje said.
Kalonzo, DAP-Kenya leader Eugene Wamalwa and Narc Kenya’s Martha Karua have been oscillating around Gachagua, with indications of teaming up to unseat Ruto.
However, Gachagua recently
appeared to dictate conditions to
his yet-to-be political partners by
challenging them to ringfence their
backyards
