Mt Kenya at a crossroads between Ruto’s sway and Gachagua’s grip

Mt Kenya’s political landscape is increasingly becoming a battleground as leaders negotiate a precarious balance between President William Ruto’s influence and Rigathi Gachagua’s tightening grip on the region.

Caught in this high-stakes duel, most Mt Kenya leaders, especially those supporting the government, are taking a cautious 'wait-and-see’ approach.

The unfolding power struggle is reshaping alliances and leaving many leaders uncertain ahead of the 2027 election. Discontent has been fuelled by unfulfilled promises, including stalled economic initiatives and perceived sidelining of the region in key government appointments.

This dissatisfaction has created an opening for Gachagua, who has been actively consolidating his influence, positioning himself as Mt Kenya’s political kingpin.

He has been rallying leaders under his banner and urging unity to secure the region’s political and economic interests.

Political analyst Prof Macharia Munene contends there is a leadership vacuum in the Mt Kenya region, which impeached and embittered Gachagua, Martha Karua and Ndindi Nyoro have not been able to fill.

He said President Ruto still maintains influence in the region due to the support of regional leaders within his administration.

“Gachagua has an opportunity to lead the community, but he has a long way to go, considering his confrontational style,” Munene said.

“Karua lacks a political following but possesses what we call ‘political in vasions’. Ndindi Nyoro was seen as a young Matiba, but he has missed his political calculation. Thus, Ruto might continue to enjoy the support if he rectifies his mistakes,” Munene said.

He argues Gachagua’s actions have forced Ruto and his team into campaign mode, a strategy that hinders their ability to govern effectively.

Gachagua, speaking on Monday during a Kameme TV interview, accused Ruto of betraying Mt Kenya by gradually sidelining its leaders from key government positions.

He cited examples of how influential posts had been taken away from his allies and handed to individuals from other regions.

“The Budget and Appropriations Committee was taken away from Ndindi Nyoro and given to Sam Atandi. This seat was in Mt Kenya, and he should have looked for someone else in Mt Kenya, but he took it elsewhere,” Gachagua said.

Gachagua and his allies have been frequently meeting at his rural home in Mathira (Wamunyoro) where they have been strategizing on the region’s politics ahead of the launch of their party in May.

Kiambu Senator Karungo Thang’wa said Mt Kenya has moved away from President Ruto due to unfulfilled promises and ‘mistreatment’ of leaders, calling the region’s relationship with him “toxic” due to alleged mistreatment.

He urged leaders to declare their allegiance, either as ‘Itungati’ (servers) with Gachagua or with Ruto, criticising fence-sitters as opportunists.

“Any sane person must take a stand,” he said.

“We can’t afford opportunistic fence-sitters. In Mt Kenya, you’re either with Ruto or Gachagua. The community is tired of having leaders who are insincere, like ‘watermelons’”, he said.

Thang’wa urged governors also to make their stands known, noting that most of them fear being impeached, citing the case of Meru Governor Kawira Mwangaza.

“No one has a personal issue with President Ruto, but his leadership style is a concern. It affects ordinary citizens due to its centralised and micromanaging nature,” he said.

The rivalry has also spilled into public forums, with Gachagua’s all es such as Nyeri Governor Mutahi Kahiga challenging undecided leaders to declare their allegiance.

During a recent event in Laikipia, Kahiga openly urged Murang’a Governor Irungu Kang’ata to “listen to the ground” and align with Gachagua’s camp.

Kahiga told Kang’ata it was time he stopped sitting on the fence and instead, makes his stand known as realignments continue in the Mt Kenya region.

“We would like to tell Kang’ata to listen to the ground since we are going to follow the direction in which the Mt Kenya kingpin will declare,’’ Kahiga said.

He would later apologise to Kang’ata after a heated public debate in which he (Kahiga) claimed he had been misquoted by the media. Governors like Kimani Wamatangi (Kiambu), Anne Waiguru (Kirinyaga), Irungu Kang’ata (Murang’a), and Mithomi Njuki (Tharaka Nithi) have chosen to remain silent, avoiding any public declarations of allegiance.

However, Gachagua has been openly endorsed by others, such as Kahiga, Thang’wa, John Methu (Nyandarua), Joe Nyutu (Murang’a) and Wanjiku Muhia (Kipipiri).

Gachagua’s camp has also ramped up pressure on leaders who remain silent or undecided, with analysts observing this is a calculated move to force them into submission.

One notable figure caught in this crossfire is Nyoro, once a staunch ally of President Ruto. Nyoro on Tuesday voiced his frustrations, claiming he has been sidelined since being removed as Chairman of the Budget Committee.

“I last spoke with President Ruto in October last year… A time to talk it all over will come,” Nyoro said, urging Mt Kenya residents to pray for him amid what he described as political betrayals.

Political analyst Charles Munyui warned the ongoing succession politics in Mt Kenya could hinder regional development. He emphasised the need for leaders to strike a balance between political manoeuvring and unity, as fragmentation might impede crucial policies, such as revenue sharing.

Munyui advised leaders to unite behind common interests, prioritising development over continuous politicking, which can delay progress for ordinary citizens.

“The current political behaviour in Mt Kenya is concerning,” he said.

“The fragmentation among leaders could have serious consequences for crucial policies, such as revenue sharing, which are vital to the people. Without unity, they struggle to agree on a common agenda, which undermines their ability to effectively advocate for the region’s interests.”

Political commentator Andrew Maringa called Gachagua’s strategy a strategic power play to depict Ruto’s allies as betrayers of Mt Kenya’s interests.

“Gachagua is making a calculated move to solidify his support base while isolating those aligned with Ruto,” Maringa said.

Meanwhile, Ruto’s camp is working to counter Gachagua’s influence by emphasising development projects in Mt Kenya.

ICT Cabinet Secretary William Kabogo, in an interview with the Star, dismissed Gachagua’s claims of dominance, stating the region would ultimately rally behind Ruto for his development agenda.