Why Kenya faces refugee crisis from regional conflicts

Kenya is facing another refugee crisis as the Horn of Africa region slides into turmoil.

The region faces a myriad of insecurity challenges, as the war in Sudan rages on and the political deadlock in South Sudan risks escalating into a civil war.

The UN has warned that the neighbouring country is on the brink of another civil war.

“A conflict would erase all the hard-won gains made since the 2018 peace deal was signed,” UN Mission in South Sudan chief Nicholas Haysom said in March.

“It would devastate not only South Sudan but the entire region, which simply cannot afford another war.”

The latest wave of violence erupted on March 4, when the White Army, a youth militia, overran South Sudanese army barracks in Nasir, Upper Nile province.

In response, the South Sudan government forces launched retaliatory aerial bombardments on civilian areas, using barrel bombs that allegedly contained highly flammable accelerants.

“These indiscriminate attacks on civilians are causing significant casualties and horrific injuries, especially burns, including to women and children,” Haysom said, adding that at least 63,000 people have fled the area.

The government has also arrested allies of First Vice President Riek Machar, who has also been put under house arrest.

There have been mediation efforts led by Igad and the African Union, but they are yet to get to the conception stage.

Igad Special Envoy to South Sudan Raila Odinga made his first shuttle diplomacy trip on Friday, while the AU Panel of the Wise arrived in Juba on Wednesday on a fact-finding mission.

Kenya has raised concern over the situation in South Sudan, which it says has already started to result in an inflow of refugees.

Prime CS Musalia Mudavadi on Wednesday said instability is building up into what may yet again become a regional refugee crisis.

“It is getting worse in South Sudan. We are beginning again to see another inflow at the rate of at least 20 refugees a day,” Mudavadi told the Senate.

“So, we are beginning to see certain circumstances that are giving us challenges.”

UNHCR data shows Kenya as of February 2025 hosted 836,905 refugees and asylum seekers, mainly in Dadaab and Kakuma camps.

Among these are 612,796 refugees, with most of them originating from Somalia (327,789) and South Sudan (195,949).

The rest include 41,275 from the DRC, 27,588 from Ethiopia, 9,858 from Burundi, 6,814 from Sudan, 850 from Uganda and 2,673 classified as ‘others’.

“The Kenya refugee operation is impacted by political developments and the humanitarian situation in the region, mainly due to developments in the two main refugee-producing countries (Somalia and South Sudan),” UNHCR says.

The ongoing conflict in eastern DRC is causing a surge in refugees, with some seeking refuge in neighbouring countries, including Kenya. UNHCR spokesperson Eujin Byun in January said the violence had displaced 237,000 people this year. Some 150,000 were displaced in the first week of January.

Mudavadi said Kenya is still dealing with the challenges of al Shabaab and the conflict around the Somalia side.

“We also have sporadic attacks along the Marsabit-Ethiopia border from time to time,” he said.

The PCS added that Kenya faces “a serious security issue” that needs to be looked at regionally and internally by Kenya’s security forces.

In the 2016 fighting in South Sudan, at least 1.6 million South Sudanese were displaced internally and 831,582 rendered refugees, many of whom ended up in Kakuma.

Further describing the refugee burden the country carries, Mudavadi said Daadab and Kakuma camps have hosted refugees for up to 36 years.

“Some have been born there. Some have no idea of where their parents migrated from or where they would be going back to. In both camps, this is a challenge that we still face,” he said.  

He added that the Kenyan government would not want to enter into any programme that it bears full financial responsibility for.

“We can only handle our position in the context of our international obligations. And if the refugees are going to be here, then institutions such as the UNHCR, WFP and others will support those camps,” he said.

“We also don’t a situation whereby communities reach a stage where they feel that those who are refugees are living a better life than the Kenyans themselves.”

On March 28, President William Ruto launched the Shirika Plan, an initiative seeking to integrate refugees with host communities in Kenya.

Ruto said the plan will upgrade refugee management, shifting from humanitarian dependency to a more inclusive and progressive development model.

Mudavadi’s remarks came a week after NIS spy chief Noordin Haji warned that regional conflicts were escalating security threats against Kenya.

Speaking at a public lecture, he raised concern over the insecurity and instability in Sudan, South Sudan, Ethiopia and the eastern DRC.

“Our great republic is surrounded by states grappling with conflicts and tense inter-state relations, resulting in disrupted trade, an influx of migrants and cross-border crimes,” Haji said.

“These developments are severely straining our resources and hindering our efforts to promote regional integration and advance peace diplomacy.”