Why Ruto has a fighting chance to win back the Mountain after tour

President William Ruto’s tour of the hostile Mt Kenya region has left indications of a fighting chance in the 2027 election showdown.

The region has been hostile to President Ruto, particularly following the impeachment of Rigathi Gachagua as Deputy President.

However, his warm reception and huge crowds could be an indication that Ruto could still get a chunk of the votes despite his acrimonious fallout with Gachagua

 Across the counties of Laikipia, Nyeri, Meru, Kirinyaga, Murang’a, Nyandarua and Embu, huge crowds came out to welcome the President.

Some residents in Laikipia, however, claimed they had been forced to close their businesses by the local administration to welcome the President.

The President’s speeches largely centred on development, national unity and inclusivity, in some instances throwing jibes at his former deputy, Gachagua.

At the start of the visit, Mathira MP Eric Wamumbi claimed that based on the turnout, President Ruto will garner at least 58 per cent of Mt. Kenya votes in the next election.

 “These days people are wise; they look for and elect that leader with a vision and a plan. It's development Vs noise,” Wamumbi, who represents Gachagua’s constituency, said.

 While he didn’t give the basis for his projection, the statement was an admission of the hostility in a region that voted for the President almost to a man as well as a hopeful remark that there was a chance to change the tide.

 The President also snatched Maragua MP Mary Wamaua back to his camp after she defected from Gachagua’s “Itungati team”.

 The President was also accompanied on the tour by the majority of the elected and appointed leaders from the region.

 All the governors, including Mutahi Kahiga of Nyeri who has been the closest ally to Gachagua, attended the President’s meeting.

 While Governor Kahiga said his position had not changed despite the visit, his appearance and speech in which he asked Ruto to often visit and deliver development indicated the power and influence the President still wields in managing politics.

 The President was accompanied by MPs, who let him launch their NG-CDF projects other than Kiharu’s Ndindi Nyoro. The few MPs allied to Gachagua who gave the visit a wide berth included John Kaguchia (Mukurweini), Geoffrey Wandeto (Tetu), Senator John Nyutu (Murang’a), Gathoni Wamuchomba (Githunguri), Senator Karungo Thang’wa (Kiambu) and Nyeri Maina (Kirinyaga).

 With the majority MPs on his side, President Ruto will have a chance to push back, a strategy he used in the coup against his former boss Uhuru Kenyatta in the region.

 And as the heavy mobilization showed, the President will stop at nothing to reclaim his support in the region. There was heavy mobilisation of residents, boda boda riders and mama mbogas, with some saying they were forced to close their stalls with promises of “unga”.

 There was also heavy deployment of state machinery, including the parading of the Inspector general of Police, Douglas Kanja, who hails from the region.

 The President also introduced his political appointees in government — CSs, PSs and parastatal chiefs — demonstrating to residents that he has taken care of the region.

 Prof Peter Kagwanja says the President knows Mt Kenya matters a lot in his re-election bid.

 “The President garnered around 3.5 million votes in the Mt Kenya region. If you add the 848,000 that former Prime Minister Raila Odinga got there, then it is a lot of votes if they go into one basket. That’s a vote that will determine the future of the country. He has shown he is ready to fight for the vote,” Prof Kagwanja told the Star.

 Ruto repeatedly said he would return and indeed frequent the region in coming days, in part to launch some of the projects he commissioned.

 In apparent reference to Gachagua, the President said he wouldn’t allow someone “without a vision and wisdom to destroy a relationship he has built with the people of the mountain for 20 years.

 He added that he doesn’t need political brokers to engage Mt Kenya as his political roots in the region go back to two decades. This political history, experience and existing grassroots network could be a huge capital in his pushback.

Ruto campaigned with Uhuru Kenyatta in the 2002 unsuccessful bid, and joined hands again in 2013 and 2017. He is said to have been the engine of the Jubilee campaign machinery in the two elections, as well as the repeat election in 2017.

Gachagua, despite having the support of the people — at least for now — lacks the support of the political bigwigs in the region. Key players and financiers such as the Mt Kenya Foundation that brings together the owners of capital in the region are yet to back Gachagua as the regional kingpin.

The impeached Deputy President is also yet to earn the backing of retired President Uhuru’s Jubilee Party, which has already declared it will back former Inter CS Fred Matiang’I for the top job.