A fresh power
struggle is playing out within ODM as the two rival factions train their sights
on traditional strongholds associated with former
party leader Raila Odinga.
The two groups, Linda Ground, led by party leader Oburu
Oginga, and Linda Mwanachi, led by embattled secretary general Edwin Sifuna, have convened twin rallies as they flex muscles on
which side will inherit Raila’s bases.
The rival teams are engaged in a silent but vicious
coordinated push to win over the party’s grassroots structures that were loyal
to Raila.
Oburu will on Sunday lead a strong team of the
mainstream party leaders to Malindi in Kilifi county for the second leg of the
youth convention.
Sifuna, on the other hand, will be leading the ODM
splinter group consisting of Siaya Governor James
Orengo and Embakasi East MP Babu Owino to a rally in Vihiga on Saturday.
The team will then cross to the lakeside city of
Kisumu for a major political rally to popularise their breakaway faction and
explain to supporters why they are opposed to the dalliance between President
William Ruto and the team led by Oburu.
The twin tours underscore an intensifying battle
for influence within the party, with both camps keen to position themselves as
the legitimate heirs to ODM’s political base.
Coast and Western are long considered a crucial
voting bloc for the party and delivered for Raila to almost a
man.
In the last presidential elections, Ruto got 77,331
votes, trailing Raila, who garnered 204,536 votes. In Vihiga, Raila won
with 114,714 votes against Ruto’s 67,633.
In recent weeks, the factions have ramped up public
engagements, holding rallies and consultative meetings aimed at energising
supporters and outflanking each other.
Last week, the Linda Mwanchi team were in Nakuru,
where they pulled a mammoth crowd. Before the Nakuru blitz, they were in
Mombasa – another Raila stronghold.
On the other hand, the Oburu team were in Nairobi’s
Jamhuri grounds for the first leg of the youth convention meant to
consolidate support and listen to the views of the youths on the leadership of
the party.
Observers say the outreach is part of a broader
strategy to entrench dominance ahead of upcoming party processes, even as
internal wrangles continue to simmer.
Political analyst Prof Gitile Naituli has weighed
in on the ongoing succession contest within ODM, arguing that the faction
likely to inherit Raila’s political base will strike a delicate balance between
negotiation and confrontation.
Speaking amid intensifying rivalry between
competing camps in the party, Naituli said Raila’s enduring influence has been
built on a unique blend of hardline resistance and strategic engagement with
opponents — a formula that any successor must replicate.
“ODM stands at that threshold. If the broad-based
experiment ultimately collapses, as many such arrangements in Kenyan history
have, the party will be forced into a moment of clarity,” Naituli said.
“It will have to decide not just how it positions
itself against the government, but how it understands itself. And in that
moment, one question will matter more than any other: Which version of Raila
survives Raila?
“The negotiator who sought access, or the agitator
who demanded change? The answer will not just shape the future of ODM. It will
shape the character of opposition politics in Kenya itself.”
He said that
while the Oburu faction appears to lean heavily on diplomacy and backroom
deals, the Sifuna side is banking on aggressive grassroots mobilisation,
warning that neither approach on its own is sufficient to command nationwide
appeal.
“Within ODM, two distinct but interconnected
currents have long coexisted. On one side are the pragmatists, leaders
willing to engage, negotiate, and extract incremental gains from within the
system. Figures such as Hassan Joho, Wycliffe Oparanya, Junet Mohamed, and
Gladys Wanga have come to embody this approach,” he told the Star.
“They understand the language of access, the value
of proximity and the possibilities that come with being at the table.”
“On the other side are the purists. Those who view
power through a more ideological lens, who see compromise as a potential
erosion of principle. Here, voices like Sifuna, Babu Owino and James Orengo
have remained unyielding. They speak not to the corridors of power, but to the
streets, to a base that demands clarity, not calibration.”
But according to political commentator Martin
Andati, the Sifuna wing appears to be winning over Raila supporters, describing
the Oburu side as holding on to the shell of a political party.
“The Oburu team are only having the party, the
Linda Mwananchi team have gone with the supporters,” Andati told the Star.
The remarks come as rival ODM factions ramp up
parallel campaigns, each seeking to position itself as the natural heir to
Raila’s political machinery.
The Sifuna team has, however, expressed security
concerns after the disruption of some of their rallies by people they claim are
law enforcement officers.
The issue became a topic of discussion on Thursday
before a Senate committee, with senators demanding assurance that the planned
Kisumu meeting will not be chaotic.
The senators were meeting Inspector General of
Police Douglas Kanja. This followed the recent attack on Vihiga Senator Godffrey Osotsi at the lakeside city.
The police boss assured the lawmakers that the
National Police Service has already put in place adequate security measures to
ensure the safety of all participants during the political gathering.
“On the planned meeting in Kisumu, I want to assure
the committee that it will be fully secured. However, I also urge the
organisers to comply with the law, including Article 37 of the Constitution,
which guarantees the right to assemble but also places responsibility on
organisers to ensure peace,” Kanja said.
Alego Usonga MP Sam Atandi, however, urged the residents to keep off the rallies.
The rallies are coming against the backdrop of the
Oburu team reaching a consensus with their UDA partner for joint engagements
ahead of the 2027 election.
The team was threatened by a looming fallout over
zoning and what ODM described as a lack of respect from the UDA side.
President Ruto assured the members of his
unwavering support for the broad-based arrangement, and picked ODM chairperson Wanga (Homa Bay
governor) and her UDA counterpart Cecily Mbarire to lead the consolidation
efforts.
