Majority of Kenyans are opposed to the Broad-Based Government (BBG) arrangement between President William Ruto and former Prime Minister Raila Odinga, the latest Tifa survey has shown.
The survey found that 52 per cent of Kenyans are opposed to the political arrangement, nearly twice the proportion of those who support it, who stand at 30 per cent.
Another 15 per cent of respondents said they had no opinion on the arrangement, while four per cent indicated they were unaware of the de facto coalition between the United Democratic Alliance (UDA) and the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM).
The findings are contained in the first release of Tifa's second national survey of 2026, conducted between June 13 and June 22 through face-to-face interviews with 2,048 randomly selected adults across all 47 counties.
According to Tifa, the survey examined the country's political environment and issues likely to shape the 2027 General Election, including public opinion on the Broad-Based Government that emerged following the Gen Z protests of June 2024.
"It is now over a year since Tifa began to track the popularity of the so-called Broad-Based Government arrangement between President William Ruto and the former Prime Minister Raila Odinga that was launched in the wake of the Gen Z protests of June 2024," the pollster said.
Tifa noted that support for the arrangement has remained relatively stable over the past year despite changes in the political landscape.
"Tifa’s last five surveys reveal that aside from May and August of last year, support for the BBG among all Kenyans has remained just below one-third, with support at the time of the former less than one-quarter (22 per cent) and at the time of the latter nearly half (44 per cent)," the pollster states.
According to the pollster, the continuing divisions within ODM over support for President Ruto's re-election bid appear to have limited the coalition's ability to attract additional public backing.
The survey also highlighted regional variations in attitudes towards the Broad-Based Government.
Support increased in Central Rift, the Coast and Lower Eastern by 15, five and 11 percentage points respectively.
However, backing declined in Northern Kenya, Nyanza and the Mt Kenya region by 15, 14 and four percentage points respectively.
Compared with November last year, support has fallen in nearly all regions except the Coast.
Western Kenya registered the largest decline, with support dropping by 33 percentage points from 62 per cent in November to 29 per cent in the latest survey.
Nyanza also recorded a significant decline, falling from 59 per cent to 35 per cent.
Within ODM, the survey found that supporters are increasingly aligning themselves with the "Linda Mwananchi" position associated with Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna.
Support for the faction rose slightly from 73 per cent in May to 74 per cent in June.
In contrast, backing for the rival "Linda Ground" position associated with ODM Deputy Party Leader Oburu Odinga declined from 24 per cent to 20 per cent over the same period.
The proportion of ODM supporters who expressed no opinion also increased from three per cent to six per cent.
TIFA noted that while the findings accurately reflect public opinion during the survey period, political developments that occurred during or after data collection could influence public attitudes if the same questions were asked today.
